Event Info
Starts: 19th August 2021
Course: Liberty National Golf Club, NJ
Par: 71
Length: 7,410 yards
2020 Champion: Dustin Johnson
Results
Overall Profit/Loss:
Pre-Event Bets: -8pts
1.5pts EW Webb Simpson 30/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Branden Grace 100/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Kevin Streelman 100/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Gary Woodland 150/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW 400/1 Russell Knox 400/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
In-Play Bets: -5pts
20 August 2021
0.5pts EW Robert Streb 250/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
21 August 2021
1pt EW Keith Mitchelll 40/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
22 August 2021
1pt EW Shane Lowry 33/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-3)
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Bob Cupp/Tom Kite
Last Used: 2019
Fairways: Average
Greens: Small Bentgrass
Water Hazards: On 11 holes
Par 5's: 6th, 8th and 13th
Premium on: Approach
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
This is the first event of the Playoffs. Those inside the top 70 of the FedEx Cup Standings will progress to next week's BMW Championship.
Liberty National hosted the President's Cup in 2017.
Weather
Thursday
Possible thunderstorms with a max wind speed of 11mph.
Friday
Possible thunderstorms with a max wind speed of 6mph.
Saturday
Possible thunderstorms with a max wind speed of 6mph.
Sunday
Possible thunderstorms with a max wind speed of 5mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Patrick Reed won in 2019 with a winning score of -16. Adam Scott won with -11 in 2013.
Course Form
Neither Adam Scott or Patrick Reed had performed well in previous events at Liberty National.
Recent Form
Both Reed and Scott won on the back of good recent performances. Momentum is beneficial.
World Ranking
With only the best 125 players in the FedEx rankings qualifying for this week, we shouldn't expect a huge shock.
Nationality
This course has hosted this event three times and we've had two American winners and one Australian.
Correlating Courses
None of note.
Stats Analysis
Driving Accuracy
The top 5 in 2019 ranked 8-3-24-65-66. Driving Accuracy is definitely preferred.
Driving Distance
The top 5 in 2019 ranked 9-61-7-30-22. Driving Distance helps but Abraham Ancer contended despite ranking outside the top 50.
Greens In Regulation
Only one player in the top 5 in 2019 ranked outside the top 10. Even then, Adam Scott ranked a credible 19th. Hitting the small greens is essential.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 15th was the hardest hole in 2019. The 7th and 11th also played tough.
Birdie Holes
The tree par 5s, along with the short par 4 16th hole were the four easiest in 2019.
Closing Stretch
The 16th and 17th both played under par in 2019 but the par 4 last hole can play tough and ranked as the 6th hardest hole in 2019.
Fast or Slow Start
Patrick Reed was never outside the top 10 on his way to victory in 2019. Adam Scott was 32nd after the opening round in 2013.
Reed won when leading through 54 holes in 2019. Conversely, Adam Scott won from six shots back in 2013.
In-play
The Northern Trust In-Play Blog
22nd August 2021, 20:30 (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
Rahm | -16 |
Smith | -16 |
Van Rooyen | -15 |
Thomas | -14 |
Finau | -14 |
For the third round running, Jon Rahm retains the lead - but Cameron Smith is the third player to share it with him after a sensational 60 on moving day.
Rahm is still 6/4 favourite but it is worrying for backers that his tee to green and approach stats have regressed every day. The delay of the final round to Monday may well be exactly what he needed and he can reset.
Smith talked later about how taxing a round like that can be on energy levels, so he is another who the extra day's rest may help although odds of 3/1 to back that round up and beat the world number one appear short.
Aside from Rahm, we have experienced dramatic change in the leaderboard every day and there's no reason why we should rule out more. 23 players are within six of the lead and with three 62's and a 60 posted in the third round, a lot will still be counting themselves in it.
Justin Thomas and Tony Finau are only two back but odds of 8/1 and 12/1 make no appeal. Erik Van Rooyen is an interesting option one off the lead at 14/1. He has recent winning experience on tour at Barracuda and is still riding that momentum.
It looks set to be wet and windy tomorrow, with the breeze reaching 11mph. We're going to chance one man who won't mind those conditions too much.
Round 4 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Shane Lowry 33/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-3)
Shane has improved each day with rounds of 71-67-62. Yesterday he posted his best tee to green and approach figures by some distance and now leads the field for approach play. He is a fearless closer and very competent in poor playing conditions so it's all set up for him to pose the leaders a question.
Jon Rahm has retained his lead with a 67 but has new company at the top with Tony Finau tucked in behind. Rahm is best priced at 8/5 with Finau 8/1 to upset the Spaniard. Justin Thomas could only manage a two under par 69 and is now joined by Xander Schauffele. Both are available at 7/1 and Jordan Spieth is one further back at 14/1. Rahm is without a doubt still the man to beat although every department of his game declined yesterday apart from off the tee. He dropped a whole five shots tee to green, but given his ability to close he is neither a back nor a lay for us at that price. Finau has not recorded a top five since the playoff loss to Max Homa at Genesis back in February and we could never touch Tony at single figures until he gets a win on board, especially against the world's best. Thomas has lost a bit of momentum. Schauffele and Speith may find it hard to back up a low one with another as we witnessed yesterday with Rahm and Thomas. It is very likely one of the top five in the betting will win, but one player shouldn't be written off just yet. Keith is the lesser name within two shots of the lead but odds of 40/1 seem slightly disrespectful. He was 5th in his second last start, playing his two best rounds at the weekend. In May he was 3rd at Wells Fargo behind Rory McIlroy and Abraham Ancer so has recent history of contending in strong fields. He fended off Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler to win the 2019 Honda Classic, so we know he can do it. At the price it's worth chancing him to do so. Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas lead the way at The Northern Trust after spectacular opening rounds of 63. The pair lead by three and this event appears to be a two horse race already. World number 1, Jon Rahm, is seeking a win after missing out on the Olympics due to a positive Covid test. He's a general price of 11/8 to win from here and you'd certainly be a brave man to back against him. Rahm memorably went on to win the US Open after having to withdraw when leading The Memorial by six shots. He was quoted yesterday as saying, "the feeling of redemption is not going to be quite as big (compared to his US Open win)," if he wins this week. However, we've seen how well he bounces back after a set back and we're not keen to take him on. A return to an old putter was the key for Justin Thomas as he rolled in nine birdies and ranked 8th for SG: Putting, an area he's been struggling with this season (he ranks 126th for the season). The American is into 3/1 to win from here and it's a fair price given how effective Thomas can be when he's putting well. Given the quality of the front two, our bet today is targeting the each way places at big odds, with anything better than a 3rd place an added bonus. Weather conditions for today's round are expected to be favourable. No rain is forecast and the wind is not expected to rise above 5mph. Robert ranked 4th SG: Tee To Green yesterday as he fired a bogey free 67. He was a winner last year on the PGA Tour at the RSM Classic, adding to his 2014 win at The McGladrey Classic. A streaky player, he's capable of posting three more rounds to bag a top 4 finish.
21st August 2021, 12:30 (UK time)
Player Total
Rahm
-12
Finau
-11
Thomas
-10
Schauffele
-10
Mitchell
-10
Round 3 Bet
20th August 2021, 09:15am (UK time)
Player Total
Rahm
-8
Thomas
-8
Varner
-5
Six Players Tied
-4
Round 2 Bet