The Genesis Invitational 2023

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2023 Genesis Invitational Tips

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Genesis Invitational Event Info

Starts: 17th February 2023
Course: Riviera CC, California
Par: 71
Length: 7,322 yards
2022 Champion: Joaquin Niemann

Genesis Invitational Course Info

Designer: Neville and Thomas 1926 with Fazio re-design 2008.
Hosted since: 1973.
Course type: Classical, Tree Lined, Undulating.
Fairways: Narrow to average width, Kikuyugrass
Rough: Kikuyugrass, relatively low.
Greens: Poa Annua, 12 on the Stimp, surrounding run off areas.
Water Hazards: None.
Par 5's: 1st, 11th and 17th.
Premium on: Strong approach play.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

This is another elevated event so the field strength is strong.

It is particularly hard to hit greens in regulation here so we should expect lots of scrambling needed. Players often struggle with short putting on the greens here.

Genesis Invitational Weather

The current forecast shows extemely cold weather on Friday which could make things tough for the field.

Thursday: Light rain showers with winds of 11mph.
Friday: Sleat and cold weather with winds of 15mph.
Saturday: Sunny with winds of 11mph.
Sunday: Sunny Intervals with winds of 12mph.

Genesis Invitational Trends

Winning Score
Last year Joaquin Niemann won with 19 under par but the previous six years ranged from -11 to -17.

Price of Winner
5 of the last 7 winners have started at 50/1 or less. JB Holmes won at 150/1 in 2019 and James Hahn won at 200/1 in 2015 but the fields have got stronger here in recent years meaning one of the world's best usually prevails. Even Max Homa who started at triple figure odds in 2021 went on to establish himself as a double winner on tour that year.

Correlating Courses
Torrey Pines which hosts the Farmers Insurance Open also uses Kikuya grass with Poa Annua greens. There is a clear correlation to success at the Masters and success here with past winners at both including Adam Scott, Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson.

Course Form
This is a course where you need plenty of experience to succeed. 5 out of the last 7 had at least two top 15's prior to winning and one that didn't - Max Homa - was 5th the year prior to winning. Side with strong course experience.

Recent Form
Niemann arrived in strong form last year, as did Max Homa in 2021. 2020 winner Adam Scott had won his previous start at the Australian PGA but both runners up, Sung Kang and Scott Brown, missed their previous cut at Pebble Beach. Past winners JB Holmes (2019) and Bubba Watson (2015) had both missed the cut at Pebble prior to winning but had shown glimpses before that. Recent editions have suggested coming in with strong form helps.

Nationality
Since 2010, we have had 10 American winners, 1 Chilean winner and 2 Australian winners. The Kikuyagrass rough used is similar to the rough used in Australia and South Africa.

Genesis Invitational Stats Analysis

We are looking for a player with high SG: Off the tee and SG: Approach.

SG: Off The Tee
5 of the last 7 winners ranked inside the top 20. Niemann was just outside the top 20 last year and 2021 Winner Max Homa was 2nd in 2021. Strong driving is preferred.

SG: Approach
4 of the past 7 winners have been in the top 6 and all 7 were in the top 21. Niemann was 1st last year. Approach play is key.

SG: Around The Green
Only 3 out of the last 7 winners has ranked inside the top 10 which is surprising given the amount of missed greens. Niemann was 2nd in this category last year. We would still like players with a tidy short game.

SG: Putting
Niemann ranked outside the top 30 whilst 2021 winner Max Homa ranked 7th in this category last year. JB Holmes was 1st for this category in 2019 but the 2018 and 2020 winners only ranked 27th and 21st. Tee to green is preferred this week as everyone tends to struggle on the greens a little here.

Genesis Invitational In-Play Tips

Tough Holes
The par 3 4th, par 4's 12th and 15th plays over par.

Birdie Holes
The 511 yard par 5 1st is the easiest hole on the course. The driveable par 4 10th and the other two par 5's (11th and 17th) are all very scoreable. The back nine needs to be taken advantage of.

Closing Stretch
The 16th is a relatively simple par 3. The 17th is a 589 yard par 5, and the par 4 18th is a tough finishing hole requiring a good drive and long iron shot.

Fast or Slow Start
6 of the last 7 winners have all been within 3 shots after round 1 one, Niemann led by 3 shots after 18 holes last year. 5 of the last 6 winners have been leading heading into the final round. You want to be up with the pace.

Previous Genesis Invitational tips

You can access our historical Genesis Invitaional picks using the links below:

2022

2021

2023 Genesis Invitational Tips

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In-play

2023 Genesis Invitational In-Play Blog

19th February 2023, 12:25pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Rahm	-15
Homa	-12
Mitchell	-11
Cantlay	-10
Woodland	-9

2023 Genesis Invitational Round 3 Summary

Jon Rahm was the only player to go bogey free and he has opened up a three shot lead at the top of the leaderboard.

Notable Round 2 Genesis Invitational Quotes

"Really proud of today, heck of a round of golf. Took advantage of a couple good lies in the rough and made every putt that I needed to keep the round going." Jon Rahm

" I played awesome today. Yesterday I was scrappy and I hearted it out for whatever I shot. Today I played great and just didn't really -- I didn't feel like I got the bounces, I didn't feel like I got a lot of -- I got a lot out of the shots I was hitting, so tomorrow will be a different day." Max Homa

2023 Genesis Invitational Round 4 Weather

Mostly sunny with wind not expected to exceed 10mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Jon Rahm is the general 1/3 favourite. Rahm did perform poorly when in contention at the Farmers Insurance Open three weeks ago but it is hard to see him losing out today. He has a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and we'd expect him to go on and win from here.

Max Homa is available at 9/2. Although Homa stated he played better from tee to green in round three, his score this week has largely been based on his putting (he leads the SG: Putting stats). The 9/2 isn't a price we're particularly interested in.

Where is the value?

The last five winners of this event have all been first or second after three rounds so history would suggest this is a battle between Rahm and Homa. We're looking to the three ball market for value today.

Round 4 Bet

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+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

18th February 2023, 11:25am (UK time)

Player	Total
Homa	-10
Rahm	-9
Mitchell	-9
Hodges	-9
Morikawa	-8
Cantlay	-7
Two players tied	-6

2023 Genesis Invitational Round 2 Summary

Max Homa putted superbly in round two to open up a one shot lead. Lee Hodges was the surprise of the day whilst Jon Rahm played his last six holes in four under to stay one back.

Notable Round 2 Genesis Invitational Quotes

"Well, I love this place. People ask what's your favorite golf course on Tour and Riv's always at the top of the list." Keith Mitchell

"I'm not really sure why I play so well in California. Obviously there's some comfortability with the grass and how far the ball goes. I don't know. This golf course in particular does suit me really well. It suits a lot of the shots I like to hit." Max Homa

2023 Genesis Invitational Round 3 Weather

Mostly sunny with wind not expected to exceed 9mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Jon Rahm has slightly shortened in the betting to 5/2 and remains favourite. He continued to impress on the greens and approach play remains strong, however he is still struggling off the tee. If he can get the driver sorted, he is looking tough to beat.

Max Homa has shortened to 3/1 but to be said his score has been built mainly with the putter - he is 1st this week on the greens by over a shot. He lost a stroke on approach yesterday and that is a slight worry for the weekend.

Collin Morikawa is two back of Homa and shortened to 13/2 whilst Rory McIlroy is the final player in single figures at 9/1. Both are capable of taking control of this tournament if they can heat up on the greens.

Where is the value?

This looks an incredibly tricky event to call at this stage and with no 3-ball markets available it may be best to let this round play out.

Round 3 Bet

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+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

17th February 2023, 8:25am (UK time)

Player	Total
Mitchell	-7
Homa	-7
Rahm	-6
Kuchar	-5
English	-5
Morikawa	-5
Seven players tied	-4

2023 Genesis Invitational Round 1 Summary

Max Homa and Jon Rahm set the early pace whilst Keith Mitchell was able to tie Homa for the lead in the afternoon.

Notable Round 1 Genesis Invitational Quotes

"I hit it better on the front than I did the back, but I chipped and putted better on the back than I did the front, so I just kind of matched the round over 18 holes. Hopefully we can be a little bit more consistent tomorrow in terms of where we are off the tee. I got in some squirrelly places a little bit back there and was fortunate to get out of them." Keith Mitchell

"Today I felt like I had it and I was very proud to go around this place and show that, because I did feel good. I felt good on the range, I felt good yesterday. Yeah, so I wanted to go out there and commit to every shot and trust it. I'm swinging it awesome and I'm putting it well, so why not trust my golf swing." Max Homa

2023 Genesis Invitational Round 2 Weather

Mostly sunny with wind not expected to exceed 7mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Jon Rahm is 3/1 favourite and it worrying for the field that he shot 6 under par with his B game yesterday. He was a ragged off the tee, ranking 50th with the driver which is so often his strength and he will likely need to turn that around to win.

Max Homa is next best and probably preferred at 9/2. Finishes of 5th, 1st and 10th in his last three starts at Riviera show his love for the course and he ranked 1st tee to green yesterday. The post round interview indicated confidence is very high and he should be expected to be in contention Sunday afternoon.

Rory McIlroy is next at 13/2 but looks too short given the strength of the leaders whilst Collin Morikawa looks more appealing at 9/1, being one shot closer and having finished so strong here last year for a 2nd place.

Where is the value?

6 of the last 7 winners have all been within 3 shots after round one. Combine that with the strength of the leaders and it suggests we might not want to look too far down the leaderboard today.

Round 2 Bet

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