Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +19pts
Pre-Event Bets: -8.5pts
1pt Win Only Joaquin Niemann - 25/1 @ William Hill
1pt EW Brendan Todd (1/5 1-8) - 40/1 @ Skybet
1pt EW Matt Kuchar (1/5 1-8) - 40/1 @ Betfair
0.5pts EW Michael Thompson (1/5 1-8) - 150/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts EW Hudson Swafford (1/5 1-8) - 150/1 @ William Hill
1.5pts Branden Grace Top 20 - 9/2 @ William Hill
In-Play Bets: +27.5pts
15 January 2021 (+13.5 Pts)
0.5pts EW Brendan Steele (1/4 1-5) - 80/1 @ Skybet
0.5ptsEW Chris Kirk (1/4 1-5) - 80/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts EW C.T. Pan (1/5 1-6) - 100/1 @ Vbet
1ptTom Hoge Top 5 Finish - 12/1 @ Betway
17 January 2021 (+14 Pts)
2pts Kevin Na Win Only 7/1 @ Skybet
Course Notes 2021
Fall Momentum: You often hear many players speaking of "carrying momentum from the fall" into the new year. Malnati and Kizzire who both started strongly in round 1 spoke of carrying their late 2020 form over.
Wind: In 2021, there was no wind whatsoever. 2020 was extremely windy and wet and 2019 was slightly windier than 2021. Bare this in mind with the forecast for 2022.
Off the Pace: You don't have to be right up with the pace here after 18 or 36 holes. 2021 once again proved this. Nick Taylor led after round 2 by 2 shots after starting 4 behind. Brendan Steele led after round 3 by two shots after starting the round 3 shots back.
Player Notes 2021
Brendan Steele - Q. Do you feel there's a little left from last year you're trying to finish off this year? BRENDAN STEELE: All it shows you is that you can do it around this course; you feel comfortable here with the shots and everything. Totally different conditions this year. It's been so nice all week versus last year; it was like you just had to really battle on every shot. You're hitting 5-irons from 160 yards and things like that last year.
Been a totally different kind of week. But I love the course and I love the shots and what it demands of you. It's always nice for me coming off a break because I'm excited to break and sometimes I lose that through the middle of the year.
Charley Hoffman - Q. With that being said, how do you compartmentalize that, knowing that you have to go pretty low?CHARLEY HOFFMAN: Yeah, you never know how much rain -- if it's soft, you can be more aggressive out here. So if the wind stays up -- obviously the wind is the protector on this golf course. If the wind is blowing, par is a pretty good score. If it's just raining and soft, I expect a lot of birdies.
Nick Taylor - Q. How big of an adjustment from Kapalua to Waialae? NICK TAYLOR: Yeah, it's a brutal walk, first off, but there's so many uneven lies, uphill shots, downhill slots, green are undulated and lots of breaking putts. There's really no comparison. I've always liked this golf course. It kind of suits my eye off the tee. I've driven the ball well the last couple days and really putted well.
Patton Kizzire - Q. Speaking of the golf course, when you won here, you were 17-under par; leader is 16-under now. What's the biggest difference if the golf course or conditions from when you won to this year? PATTON KIZZIRE: I think the wind was up a little bit more in 2018 when I won. Some of the greens were a little different. They have changed a few greens. I think guys are continuing to get better at golf.
Patton Kizzire - Q. Why do you feel so comfortable on this golf course? PATTON KIZZIRE: The bermudagrass, the style of golf course, I've just enjoyed a position-style Country Club, risk/reward style golf course with bermuda greens, and this is what we have here. The golf course is fantastic. It's in about as good of shape as I've ever seen it. I certainly do have good vibes here. When I get here, it just feels good, and today was a good start.
Chris Kirk - Q. Talk about the golf course and how firm it is right now. A lot of players have commented that it's fast and firm this year. CHRIS KIRK: Yeah, this is back to what I remember from my first number of years on TOUR. The last few years it's been a little bit soft but this is kind of how I remember it really playing and how I really enjoy playing this track for sure. I just love the 18th hole here, hitting that big, high draw around the corner.
Brendan Steele - Q. Going back to last year, do you feel like you have unfinished business at this golf course? BRENDAN STEELE: I mean, yeah, a little bit. Obviously when you come that close, you hope that maybe you can come back and play well and give yourself another chance. That actually happened for me at Safeway. I was, in 2015 I led for the first 56 holes and kind of exploded on the way in, and then I won in 2016 and 2017. I do have a little history of that, so hopefully that can repeat itself here.
Peter Malnati - Q. How did you find the golf course leading into today and what did you do to take advantage of it? PETER MALNATI: You know, I just really, really enjoy it. You have to control the ball a little bit more off the tee, which hitting fairways hasn't necessarily been my strong suit lately, but control off the tee has always been, so I think it really does suit me well like you said.
Webb Simpson - Q. You play really well on courses like this, old-school, around 7,000 yards. Why is that? WEBB SIMPSON: I love the opportunity to hit wedges and short irons into greens. I feel like that's always been a strength of mine. Even when I don't seem to play well, those still seem to be pretty sharp and I have a lot of those opportunities here. I love when fairways matter. This week, the rough isn't as long as normal but fairways still matter a lot.
Billy Horschel - Q. Course seemed to play firm and fast today. Is that your assessment? BILLY HORSCHEL: Yeah, I haven't played here very much. It's only my fourth time in my career playing. Haven't played it in about four years. I think early in my career, it was always soft and slow, and you just never know with the weather leading up to it. And so it's the first time I've seen it this fast and this firm and I've always wanted to play it this way, and it's exciting to see it because I think this is a really good golf course. Makes you think off the tees and where you try to land it on the greens. The greens are still very receptive but the greens are fast and running out.
Stewart Cink - "I love coming back to Sony and Waialae every year. It's a fun place to start the year for me. It's got narrow fairways, smaller targets, and it feels like a good way to whip yourself into competitive shape really fast."
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Seth Raynor. Also designed course at The Greenbrier.
Tournament played here since: 1965
Type of Course: Coastal, Tree lined, Short, Fiddly.
Fairways: Average width, almost half the width of Plantation Course last week.
Rough: Bermuda
Greens: Small, Bermuda, flatter in comparison to last week.
Par 5's: 9th and 18th - both reachable.
Water Hazards: In-play on 5 holes - 2,3,8,9,10.
Premium on: Accuracy, in particular iron play and solid Bermuda Grass putters.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
A number of players have not competed since November or early December. Many recent winners have played the Tournament of Champions the previous week.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning Score
Cameron Smith won here with -11 last year in high winds. Previous winning scores were -22, -17, -27, -20, -23, -17 and -24 so it fluctuates depending on the conditions. With the wind down this week we can expect the winning score to return to the 20's.
Correlating Courses
Several players described the Mayakoba Golf Classic and RBC Heritage (Hilton Head) as similar tests. The Greenbrier was also designed by Raynor and has several players who have done well at both.
Course Form
Smith had three top three top 30's in his last starts here but runner up Steele had missed his last cut here in his only start. Kuchar in 2019 had five top 15's previously. Kizzire in 2018 won following a missed cut on his only previous appearance. There are plenty of players who regularly do well around here but history suggests it is not essential to have challenged previously. It is preferential to have least teed it up here before.
Recent Form
Cameron Smith was the first winner in 7 editions that hadn't played at Kapalua the previous week. However, we should note that he had played in Australia in the third week in December so had the advantage of still being relatively sharp. Three of the past seven winners had a top 10 at Kapalua and 6 of the past 7 winners were inside the top 21 the previous week. Look for players with a top 25 last week or ones that finished the year well in 2020.
Nationality
Americans have dominated here, having 9 of the last 11 winners here. We wouldn't put too much emphasis on it though.
Stats Analysis
We are looking for a player with high SG Approach and SG: Putting figures this week.
SG: Off The Tee
Justin Thomas was 1st in this category for his win in 2017 but Gomez in 2016 and Kizzire in 2018 only ranked 54th and 67th. Last two winners ranked 18th and 7th.
SG: Approach
Smith only ranked 53rd last year but the previous four winners all ranked inside the top 7. The high winds can maybe account for Smith relying on his short game and we still regard this stat as extremely important for success here.
SG: Around The Green
The past five winners have ranked 9th, 29th, 34th, 23rd, 14th. A tidy short game is helpful but not the main stat we're looking at here.
SG: Putting
The past five winners have been in the top 5 for putting. It is the key stat to success here, especially this week which should be a putting contest.
In-play
Tough Holes
The opening six holes are generally the toughest section of the course. Four of the six toughest holes are in this stretch (holes 2, 4, 6 and 1 - in order of difficulty). 2021 winner Kevin Na only played these holes in 2 under par for the week and 2020 winner, Cameron Smith, played this stretch in +2 for the week!
Birdie Holes
The two par 5s are must birdie holes, generally playing at least half a shot under par for the week.
Fast or Slow Start
It is possible to play catch up here. Six of the last seven winners were at least two shots back after round 1. Four of the last seven winners were at least 3 shots back after round 2. We can look for lively outsiders from a few shots back each round.
Closing stretch
The final hole (par 5) plays like a par 4 and a birdie is expected. Eagles are possible.
Pre-Event Picks
1pt win only Joaquin Niemann 25/1 @ William Hill
The youngster reminded us exactly how talented he was last week with a final round 64 to narrowly miss out on the victory. Our player profile identifies him as a player who can stay hot when in form and the fact he gets to play with good friend Sergio Garcia again on the first two days (he played with Sergio when shooting 64 last week) should help him here. Ranked 2nd for iron play last week and highly ranked for par 4 performance, which should suit this week. He stated in his interview this week his end goal is to get to world number one, which is some way off yet, but 25/1 may seem a steal in this field come Sunday.
1pt EW (1/5, 8 places) Brendon Todd 40/1 @ Skybet
Brendon warmed up nicely last week with a 13th place finish at a course which really doesn't suit his strengths. This week's test should be much more up his alley as it is strategic course where he can plot his way round. The course has obvious links to the course used at the Mayakoba Classic (Kizzire and Kuchar have both won each event and similar layouts). Todd won there in 2019 and was 8th in 2020. 21st here last year after a poor week in Kapalua, he can improve on that showing this week.
1pt EW (1/5, 8 places) Matt Kuchar 40/1 @ Betfair
We mentioned Matt was a winner of the Mayakoba Classic in 2018 and he also won here in Hawaii in the 2019 edition when it was similar calm conditions to what is expected this week. Matt struggled with his form after the lockdown in 2020 but he finished the year in fine style, winning the QBE shootout with Harris English in December with a record winning score of -37. Matt's iron play was on fire that week and he may well just take some inspiration off Harris winning last week too. He is still a force to be reckoned with at short tactical venues like this, take the 40/1 on offer.
0.5pts EW (1/5, 8 places) Michael Thompson 150/1 @ Skybet
Michael played last week and there is a lot to like about him going into this week. A poor opening round put him well out of contention but a score of -15 over the next three rounds and progressive SG: Approach stats are hugely encouraging. He doesn't have the greatest record at Sony (although he does have a 6th place finish in 2012) but that's normally the first tournament of his season and he traditionally starts slowly. If he carries on his excellent approach play he's a lively outsider.
0.5pts EW (1/5, 8 places) Hudson Swafford 175/1 @ William Hill
Hudson has an excellent record at this event with four top 13 finishes in his last seven starts. He played last week, improving every day and signed off with a bogey free round of 68. This week's course reminds him of his home course and is quoted in previous years as saying, “it's kind of a golf course that I grew up on. My home golf course is similar to this, short, dogleg, country club. You've got to control your golf ball really well here.” Finally, he's good friends with last week's winner, Harris English, so that may well inspire him.
1.5pts Branden Grace Top 20 9/2 @ William Hill
Branden is traditionally a fast starter to the year. He was victorious at the South African Open on his first start in 2020. He also played the DP World Tour Championship in mid-December which means that he's played more recently than the majority of the field this week. A past champion at the RBC Heritage (a short, coastal track like this) and a 13th place finish here in his only previous start are encouraging signs the test should suit.
In-play
In-Play Blog
17 January 12.00
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Steele |
-18 |
| Na |
-16 |
| Niemann |
-16 |
| Henley |
-15 |
| Kirk |
-15 |
| Cink |
-15 |
| Hoffman |
-15 |
| Malnati |
-15 |
Those of you who wanted to forget 2020 will be having trouble this morning. Last year's third round leader, Brendan Steele, leads again at the same stage and enters the final round as 7/2 favourite. He's a longer price than 2020, but that reflects the fact he has a two shot lead (he had three in 2020) and the chasing pack is much larger.
In 2020, there were only 2 players within four shots of Brendan. This year there are 11 within four shots. Furthermore, the course is soft, there's less wind and birdies are plentiful. The chasing pack will undoubtedly make a run at him and he'll need to shoot under par to win.
Those of you who have been following our in-play blogs this week will have Brendan onside after the first round at 80/1. We also tipped up Chris Kirk at 80/1 that day and he too remains well in the hunt.
Golf Betting Club subscribers are in an even stronger position as Joaquin Niemann was tipped up pre-event at 25/1. Second favourite with the bookies at 4/1, Niemann is a serious threat to Steele and is a proven final round performer. He has a 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and we can expect him to go close today.
Given the course conditions and the potential for low scores, it's a sensible play to add one further bet to our existing position.
Sunday's Bet
- 2pts KEVIN NA 7/1 @ Skybet (Win Only)
Kevin has a 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and is considered a big threat today. Only two shots off the lead, he is a proven winner on short courses where putting is at a premium. Yesterday's 61 could have quite easily been a 59 as he missed five birdie putts under 11ft. There's always some trepidation over a player's ability to back up a low round with another, but it's worth mentioning that Kevin shot 62-61 during the 2nd and 3rd rounds of his last win at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open. Kevin has improved every day this week and he's a smart play to get onside.
16 January 12.30
| Player | Total |
|---|
| N Taylor |
-12 |
| V Taylor |
-10 |
| Simpson |
-10 |
| Kirk |
-10 |
| Cink |
-10 |
| Henley |
-10 |
For a brief part of the round it looked like Vaughn Taylor was going to take the 36 hole lead when he got to -10 through 12 holes, but it was his namesake Nick Taylor who leapfrogged the field with a superb 62, including 5 birdies in his final 7 holes.
He now takes a two shot lead but the chasing pack is bunched and full of market favourites. Rightly so, the bookmakers rate Webb Simpson 7/1 favourite and that price almost looks generous considering he was pre-event favourite and sits in 2nd place.
Stopping us from taking the price is the nature of the event - yesterday was further evidence leaderboards can change fast here when there are so many birdie opportunities. Furthermore, the current one is packed with PGA Tour champions - the top 14 have all won before on tour.
Nick Taylor is a difficult player to assess as he often flatters to deceive. However, it is hard not to remember his performance at Pebble Beach last year where he was in a similar position at halfway and fended off Phil Mickelson, Jason Day and Kevin Streelman to win by four. He has not been in this position since, but will take great heart from that performance. He is also well aware that he will need to keep the foot down if he is to win;
"If it's similar conditions with the scores, it's so bunched I'm going to have to keep making as many birdies as possible. I'll have the same game plan: Tees, greens, but the mindset is to try and make birdie."
Two of our first round plays, Chris Kirk (80/1) and Brendan Steele (80/1), made good progress yesterday and sit two and three shots off the lead respectively. Our pre-event selection Joaquin Niemann (25/1) is also still in the hunt at -9 despite a disappointing second round, so we are happy to play a waiting game for now.
Saturday's Bets
15 January 11.50
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Kokrak |
-8 |
| Niemann |
-8 |
| Malnati |
-8 |
| Herman |
-6 |
| Taylor |
-6 |
| Kim |
-6 |
| Berger |
-6 |
| Baddeley |
-6 |
| Kizzire |
-6 |
Peter Malnati raced out the blocks with a 62 which looked good enough to be sole leader, however, as most of us in the UK were sleeping, Jason Kokrak and Joaquin Niemann joined him.
The young Chilean, Joaquin Niemann, is now the bookies favourite at a best price of 6/1. He was our headline 25/1 pick this week for our subscribers as our player profile identified him as a player who can hold form. The news he was paired with good friend/mentor Sergio Garcia for the first two days were enough to tempt us in and it's a shame he is unlikely to play with the Spaniard for the weekend - he is -17 for his last two rounds with him!
It is still early days though and his co-leaders are no mugs either. Kokrak finally got his first PGA Tour win at The CJ Cup@ Shadow Creek at the end of last year and although his form has been poor since, that weight off his shoulders should serve him well now. Malnati was also knocking at the door at the end of 2020 with a 5th at Shriners and 2nd at the Sanderson Farm Championship, and is capable of sticking around. Neither have a previous top 10 here though despite having shown glimpses.
The pre-tournament favourites have also made a strong start with Berger at -6, Simpson -5 and Morikawa -4. All are obviously dangers, however, the odds reflect that. Our preview highlighted that Justin Thomas is the only recent winner to have started under 40/1 so we're not hugely keen to back any of them at this stage.
We also mentioned in the preview that recent history tells us that you can be a few shots back after round 1 and go on to win. For that reason we have selected a few of the guys on -5 with enough pedigree to mount a challenge.
Friday's Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way BRENDAN STEELE 80/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Brendan was 2nd here in 2020 and he really should have won the event. He is a three-time winner on the PGA Tour and appears to be being disrespected by the bookmakers this week. Notably, he won the Safeway Open back to back in 2016 and 2017 so we know he can hold event form. His other PGA Tour victory came in Texas so we know he doesn't mind a little bit of wind should it kick up at the weekend.
- 0.5pts Each Way CHRIS KIRK 80/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Chris is another three-time PGA Tour winner who is on the comeback trail. A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last year followed by some nice form in the fall, it shouldn't be too long before Kirk starts placing in PGA Tour events again. He posted -5 yesterday which included a treble bogey. If he is able to cut out the mistakes, he has the aggressive game to score well around here.
- 0.5pts Each Way C.T. PAN 10/1 @ VBet (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
C.T. won the Heritage in 2019 which is hosted at another tactical track like this one. He showed just how good a player he is at the Masters in November, finishing 7th. This week's course plays to his strengths and we know if he gets a sniff on Sunday, he has the temperament to get the job done. Take the standout 100/1 price at Vbet if you can get on but 80/1 generally with six places is still fair.
- 1pt TOM HOGE Top 5 Finish 12/1 @ Betway
Tom is an improving player and finished the year off nicely with a 3rd at Mayakoba, a venue with similarities to here. He also has impressive course form here with a 12th last year and 3rd in 2018. Tom hasn't won anywhere since 2011, when he won on the Canadian Tour, so he is preferred in the top 5 market. Despite his lack of wins, five top 6 finishes in the last 18 months show he is a capable player. He also appears to produce his best results at the start of the year.
