Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Bobby Weed with Fuzzy Zoeller
Tournament played here since: 1992
Type of Course: Resort/Desert course
Fairways: Generous, rough only 2 inches (previously three inches)
Greens: Large and slow Bentgrass greens (11.5 on stimp)
Par 5's: 9th, 13th and 16th
Premium on: Tee to green
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Last week we saw two winners who were left out of the Presidents Cup side so it may be worth considering this week.
It's early in a new season on the PGA Tour so some players may be playing with a fresh mindset or new motivations.
Trends
Winning Score
Generally in excess of -20, but in 2017 we saw -9 win. Sungjae Im won with 24 under par last year Expect another -20 or better.
Course Form
The last four winners all had top 15 finishes here prior to winning (Kevin Na and Martin Laird were past champions). However, we've seen in previous years that course debutants and players with little experience can also flourish.
Recent Form:
Six of the past seven champions had recorded a top 20 in their previous three starts.
Favourites or Outsiders
Im was one of the favourites last year but outsiders have a great record here. Martin Laird won in 2020 at 275/1 and he added to winners such as Rod Pampling, Smylie Kaufman and Ben Martin.
Winning Profile
Despite outsiders thriving, six of the last nine winners had won on the PGA Tour before.
First Round
The last SIX first round leaders have teed off in the morning wave. The top four last year after round one teed off early. The wind tends to kick up in the afternoon here so morning players on day 1 have a scoring advantage.
Tee to green
Both Martin Laird and Sungjae Im ranked top 21 for SG: Tee To Green in their last start prior to winning.
Stats Analysis
SG: Tee to Green
Sungjae Im was 1st last year. Laird 2nd in 2020. A key stat this week.
SG: Off the tee
Sungjae Im was 9th last year. The previous two champions (Martin Laird and Kevin Na) both ranked outside the top 40 for SG: Off The Tee. Rod Pampling, winner in 2016, also ranked outside the top 50 in this category. It's possible to win without a commanding driving performance.
SG: Approach
Four of the last six champions have ranked inside the top seven in this category. Neither Kevin Na nor Patrick Cantlay ranked inside the top 20 for SG: Approach so again it is possible to win if other areas compensate. Strong iron play is definitely preferred.
SG: Around The Green
Rod Pampling is the only champion in the past five years to rank inside the top 10 for SG: Around The Green. Sunjae Im was 13th last year though but other stats are preferred.
SG: Putting
Surprisingly, for a low scoring event, a hot putter hasn't been essential for the winner. Rankings of the past five winners:
Sungjae Im - 9th
Martin Laird - 27th
Kevin Na - 1st
Bryson DeChambeau - 60th
Patrick Cantlay - 43rd
Rod Pampling - 52nd
In Play
Tough Holes
The front 9 is considerably harder than the back. In particular, the 3rd and 8th are tricky holes. The 17th hole can cause problems with water in play.
Birdie Holes
The par 5s all play well under par and the 15th is a driveable par 4.
Fast or Slow Start
Surprisingly, only four winners in the past eight years have opened up with a 66 or better - Im (63), Martin Laird (65), Bryson DeChambeau (66) and Rod Pampling (60).
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Kurt Kitayama 70/1
A player who performs well in desert conditions and looks primed to make his PGA Tour breakthrough soon. Odds of 90/1 went earlier in the week and 70/1 was too short on Wednesday.
Will Gordon 150/1
One bad round last week ruined his chances of winning but he remains a player we're watching closely and possibly one to consider in-play.
Brandon Matthews 500/1
The big hitter should enjoy the test this week and odds of 500/1 seemed too big for a player who ranked 12th for Greens in Regulation last week.
In-play
Shriners Children's Open In-Play Blog
9th October 2022, 12:20pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Cantlay |
-19 |
| Kim T |
-19 |
| Pereira |
-16 |
| Nesmith |
-16 |
| S Kim |
-15 |
| Im |
-15 |
Round 3 Summary
Extremely low scoring on day three saw Patrick Cantlay and Tom Kim claim the lead with Cantlay just one putt away from shooting a 59. Round two leader Mito Pereira is now three behind the leaders alongside Matthew Nesmith.
Round 3 quotes
“I think I drive the ball in the fairway a lot here, and I'm not afraid of hitting driver on most every hole, so I have a lot of wedge into greens, and I have a lot of looks. If I make a bunch of putts, I can shoot low scores.” Patrick Cantlay
Round 4 Weather
Sunny with light winds of 3-5mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Patrick Cantlay is quite rightly market favourite at 11/10 as he bids to claim his 2nd win in three starts after winning the BMW Championship a few weeks ago. He would become world number two with a win but aside from the BMW Championship he has let a few opportunities slip this year, most notably a 76 at the Travelers Championship when right in the thick of it. He does have a winning memory here from 2018 and such is the strength of his course record here over the years, we should expect him to make Tom Kim and co work for the win.
We have less data on Tom Kim to analyse when it comes to his ability under the gun but the 61 he shot to win the Wyndham Championship back in August tells us he has what it takes to get the job done here. He didn't shy away when in contention at the Scottish Open either and odds of 9/5 are extremely tempting.
The trio of Matthew Nesmith, Mito Pereira and Sungjae Im are all priced at 20/1 and they will have their work cut out to catch the leaders. The nature of the vent gives them a chance though with low scores possible.
Where is the value?
One price is standing out to us in the outright market.
Round 4 Bet
- 1.5 pts Sungjae Im Win Only 20/1 @ Coral
Yesterday was a fine example of how quickly things can change at Summerlin, as was last year when Sungjae Im shot 9 under par on Sunday to claim a four shot win. He is fresh off a 63 yesterday too, so will be taking a lot of momentum and positive memories into this round. A similar performance would ask a question of the leaders and is worthy of a small play.
8th October 2022, 10:00am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Pereira |
-12 |
| Shelton |
-11 |
| McNealy |
-10 |
| S W Kim |
-10 |
| T Kim |
-10 |
| Three players tied |
-9 |
Round 2 Summary
Mito Pereira and Robby Shelton fired rounds of 63 (two better than anyone else) and they occupy first and 2nd position going into the weekend in Las Vegas.
Round 3 Weather
Sunny with light winds of 3-6mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Mito Pereira is favourite at 11/2. The Chilean ranks 2nd in SG: Tee to Green through the opening two rounds and he's certainly playing well enough to maintain his challenge over the weekend. The last three winners of this event have led after 36 holes and he'll be hoping to continue that particular trend. However, he has a number of high quality players chasing him and we're content to look further down the leaderboard.
The South Korean pair of Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim are available at 7/1 and 10/1 respectively. Both players made strong starts to their second round and it looked like they would open up a gap at the top at one stage. However, both failed to capitalise on the easier back nine at TPC Summerlin and they find themselves at ten under par. If you watched our preview show, Fore the Win, you'll know we liked both players before the off and it wouldn't be a surprise to see one of them win.
Patrick Cantlay remains a threat at 8/1 and he is expected to put in a charge over the weekend. His price is no more than fair though and there's a price we prefer.
Where is the value?
Although the last three winners have led at halfway the two winners before then came from 4th and 8th at this stage. There's a player in 6th who we think is much too big in the betting.
Round 3 Bet
- 0.75pts Each Way Chad Ramey 80/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
Chad Ramey is being somewhat disrespected in our opinion and we're keen to back him at very generous odds of 80/1. A winner this past year on Tour at the Corales Puntacana Championship, he also has a 14th place finish at this event last year to indicate his liking for this course. He described his opening two rounds as "really solid" and he has his in-laws cheering him on this week. In short, there are plenty of positives. If you can't get the 80/1, take the 66/1 with better each way terms at Betfair or Bet365.
7th October 2022, 11:00am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hoge |
-8 |
| Kim SW |
-7 |
| McNealy |
-7 |
| Eight players tied |
-6 |
Round 1 Summary
A hole out on Tom Hoge's 7th hole from the fairway kickstarted his 63 which included another eagle at the par 5 16th hole. He takes a one shot lead over Maverick McNealy and Si Woo Kim, who was our strongest pre-event selection at 50/1. Pre-event favourite Patrick Cantlay is four back whilst 2nd favourite Sungjae Im is only two back after a 65.
Round 2 Weather
Sunny with light winds of 3-6mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Sunjae Im has taken pole position as the market favourite at 7/1 which is fair enough given he is defending champion and in great form. He was solid in all departments and it's hard to see him not going from strength to strength. Although two shots further back of Im, the same could be said of Patrick Cantlay who holes fewer putts but remains a massive threat with his record here. For that reason, he is still only 9/1 which looks a tad short given the strength of the leaderboard.
Leader Tom Hoge is also 9/1 which looks the least appealing out of the three, purely due to the strength of the chasing pack. Si Woo and Tom Kim lurk at 11/1 and are both a massive threat.
Where is the value?
The strength of the leaderboard is putting us off the outright market to some extent and it is extremely likely the winner will come from the top of the market now. There is one price we see a bit of each way value in.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Davis Thompson 90/1 @ Unibet/Bet Rivers (1/4 1-5)
Thompson is a player to keep a close eye on this year and has settled in well to PGA Tour life with two made cuts whilst performing strongly tee to green. The same can be said after round one here where he ranked 4th for approach and 8th tee to green yesterday. Davis is a former world number one amateur with a big future and he has a KFT victory to his name - a top five here certainly isn't out of the question.
