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2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 5th January 2023
Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
Par: 73
Length: 7,596 yards
2022 Champion: Cameron Smith
Course Info
Designer: Coore & Crenshaw
Used Since: 1999
Type: Coastal/Resort
Fairways: Very wide & undulated
Greens: Extremely large - Bermuda
Par 5's: 5th, 9th, 15th, 18th.
Premium on: Length and putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
-The course played significantly tougher in 2020 following renovations in 2019. The greens were not as receptive and the wind was up. Winner that year, Justin Thomas, averaged 69.5 when the winners between 2008-2019 averaged 67.25.
-A number of players have not competed since November. With that in mind, some players might not be at their sharpest. We certainly factor in rust when making our Sentry Tournament of Champions picks.
Trends
Winning Score
Cameron Smith won with a score of -34 last year! Between 2017 - 2021, scores ranged between -22 and -25 with the exception of 2020, where a score of -14 won.
Course Experience
There hasn't been a debutant winner at Kapalua since 2008. Look to back players with Kapalua experience when making a Sentry Tournament of Champions pick.
Course Form
Although it is important to have played Kapalua before it's not essential to have posted a big finish here prior to winning. Previous winners course form:
2022 - Cameron Smith hadn't bettered 17th
2021 - Harris English hadn't bettered 11th
2020 - Justin Thomas had won at Kapalua in 2017
2019 - Xander Schauffele hadn't bettered 22nd
2018 - Dustin Johnson had triumphed in 2013
2017 - Justin Thomas hadn't bettered 21st
2016 - Jordan Spieth had a 2nd place finish previously
2015 - Patrick Reed hadn't bettered 16th
Recent Form
Although it is the first event of the calendar year, 11 of the last 12 winners all arrived following a top 10 in their previous event, and the other was 14th. Look for someone who played well towards the end of last year.
Nationality
Americans have dominated here, having won 11 of the last 12 events at Kapalua.
Keeping Fresh
Ten of the past eleven champions of this event had teed it up competitively the previous December. The only one who hadn't? Cam Smith last year. Do not underestimate those golfers who have taken a short winter break and are suffering less rust.
- Cameron Smith won last year having played his last event at the RSM Classic which ended on 21st November 2021.
- Harris English won in 2021 having won the QBE Shootout which ended on 13th December 2020.
- Justin Thomas won in 2020 having played the Hero World Challenge which ended on 8th December 2019.
- Xander Schauffele won in 2019, having played the Hero World Challenge which ended on 2nd December 2018.
- Dustin Johnson won in 2018, having played the Hero World Challenge which ended on 3rd December 2017.
- Justin Thomas won in 2017 having played in the Franklin Templeton Shootout which ended on 10th December 2016.
- Jordan Spieth won in 2016 having played the Hero World Challenge which ended on 6th December 2015.
- Patrick Reed won in 2015 having played the Hero World Challenge which ended on 7th December 2014 and Franklin Templeton Shootout which ended on 13th December.
- Zach Johnson won in 2014 having won the Northwestern Mutual World Challenge on 7th December 2013.
- Dustin Johnson won in 2013 having played the Hero World Challenge which ended on 2nd December 2012 and Franklin Templeton Shootout which ended on 9th December.
- Steve Stricker won in 2012 having played the 2011 Franklin Templeton Shootout which ended on 11 December.
First Round Leader
Six of the last nine first round leaders have come from the final six pairings on Thursday.
2022: Cam Smith led after the opening round but he teed off well before the final six pairings.
2021: Harris English and Justin Thomas jointly led after the opening 18 holes. English went out in the 6th last group, Thomas went out last.
2020: Joaquin Niemann played in the 5th group but the three players immediately behind him on the leaderboard all played in the final five groups.
2019: Kevin Tway led when playing in the 2nd group. However two of the three players in 2nd place played in the final two groups.
2018: Marc Leishman led when playing in the 3rd last group on Thursday.
2017: Jimmy Walker led with a 65 having teed off in the 5th last group. Justin Thomas and Ryan Moore were two of the three players in 2nd after 18 holes and they played 3rd and 4th last.
2016: Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth were 1st and 2nd after round one when playing together in the final group.
2015: Russell Henley led when playing in the 5th last group.
2014: Two (Jordan Spieth and Webb Simpson) of the four first round leaders played in the 3rd last group.
Stats Analysis
Any Sentry Tournament of Champions pick has to have a solid all round game. Winners at Kapalua have generally driven the ball long and putted well.
SG: Off The Tee
Solid driving is required as five of the past six winners have ranked no worse than 6th in this category. The only one that didn't? Harris English was 8th in 2021.
Driving Accuracy
It is notable that driving accuracy is not important here as some fairways are over 50 yards wide. Only one winner in the last 11 years has ranked inside the top 10 for driving accuracy.
SG: Approach
Due to the size of the greens, proximity to hole is important. The past five winners have ranked 7th, 12th, 2nd, 4th, 7th and 7th (most recent first) in this category.
SG: Around The Green
The past five winners have ranked 7th, 25th, 8th, 4th, 4th and 13th (most recent first) in this category.
SG: Putting
The past five winners ranked 1st, 1st, 13th, 3rd, 6th and 4th in this category. Due to the large greens, the ability to lag putts close to the hole is hugely beneficial.
Weather
A favourable forecast with the sun shining and the wind not blowing too hard.
Thursday
Partly cloudy, wind 15mph.
Friday
Sunny, wind 18mph.
Saturday
Sunny, wind 15mph.
Sunday
Sunny, wind 13mph.
Previous Sentry Tournament of Champions tips
You can access our historical Sentry Tournament of Champions tips using the links below:
2022
2021
In-Play Golf Betting Advice
Fast or Slow Start
The past two winners of this event have held the lead after the opening round. Out of the eventual top 6 in 2020, only Patrick Reed was not in the top 10 after round 1 and didn't break 70 in round one. The winner, Justin Thomas, sat 1 shot off the lead in 2nd place.
In 2019, winner Xander Schauffele was 6 shots back after round one. He was the only player in the top 6 after 72 holes who wasn't in the top 10 after round one. Schauffele is also the only winner in the last 10 years who hasn't opened with a 69 or better.
In general, you want to be up with the pace early on, although there are exceptions.
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Tips
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In-Play
Sentry Tournament of Champions In-Play Blog
8th January 2023, 12:55pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Morikawa |
-24 |
| Spaun |
-18 |
| Scheffler |
-18 |
| Fitzpatrick |
-18 |
| Kim |
-17 |
| Rahm |
-17 |
Round 3 Summary
Four birdies in his last five holes saw Collin Morikawa open up a six shot lead and he is now the strong favourite to win the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"I practiced a little bit after Christmas. Not done loads, but kind of knew where my game was at before. I kind of played a little bit. It was just kind of doing more of what I ended the year with really. I think my changes to my irons has been a positive one. We kind of put weights in the grip to make them a little bit more fade biased, which has felt a little bit more comfortable out there. I think that on top of everything else has been a real positive so far." Matt Fitzpatrick
"I mean, these changes, they're very big because now I understand. But it's not like I'm putting completely different. I thought when I went to the saw putting grip like that that was even a bigger of a change compared to when I'm doing now because I had never putted with the saw. Like I had no clue if the ball was going to go forward. It was just a roll of the dice. Now it's just understanding what I'm doing. So obviously I've made changes, but they have been simple changes to where like on the golf course I'm not really thinking about much." Collin Morikawa
Round 4 Weather
Mostly sunny with the wind expected to peak at 14mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
As you'd expect with a six stroke lead, Collin Morikawa is a strong favourite to win. Ranking third in SG: Tee to Green, he also ranks 1st for SG: Putting. The work he has done on his putting in the off season appears to be paying significant dividends and it's certainly hard to see past the leader.
Morikawa has relinquished a big lead before though. He led by five shots going into the final round of the Hero World Challenge in December 2021 and squandered his chance to win. Our Player Profile for Morikawa indicates that he can throw in the odd disappointing final round. However, we don't see that happening today and he's expected to finish the job.
With Morikawa yet to drop a shot this week, the chasers will likely require something special to put him under any sort of pressure. Scottie Scheffler is seen as the man most likely to give Morikawa a run for his money and he's available at 14/1. Having backed Scheffler yesterday, we don't feel the need to back him again with a six shot deficit.
Matt Fitzpatrick is available at 20/1 but that too makes little appeal.
Where is the value?
We considered bets in the 'without Morikawa' market but none of the prices on offer made much appeal.
Round 4 Bet
7th January 2023, 12:55pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Morikawa |
-16 |
| Spaun |
-14 |
| Scheffler |
-14 |
| Spieth |
-13 |
| Kim |
-12 |
| Two players tied |
-11 |
Round 2 Summary
Collin Morikawa kept the foot down with a 66 to take a two shot lead over JJ Spaun and Scottie Scheffler, who finished with four birdies in a row. Pre-event favourite Jon Rahm lost a lot of ground, only managing a 71 and is now five back.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"I think I was just giving myself a lot of looks, opportunities. I made a few mistakes that were frustrating, but I did a good job of staying patient and just kind of keep plucking along." Scottie Scheffler
"The course is playing firmer than before, so you have to adjust on a few holes. But just knowing kind of the normal wind direction that we have seen and I think that we're going to see over the next couple days, it just kind of allows you to go up to these tees knowing what to do and knowing where balls might end up and not getting frustrated that you're on 1 here and the ball's most likely going to end up in the rough." Collin Morikawa
Round 3 Weather
Sunny with the wind expected to peak at 14mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Collin Morikawa continued his excellence with the putter and remains 1st for SG: Putting this week. He is now 27 under par for his last three rounds at this course and clearly the man to beat. Morikawa was winless last year though and odds of 21/10 seem about right given the fact Scottie Scheffler is lurking two back.
Whilst Morikawa is performing best on the greens, Scottie Scheffler is leading the field tee to green and was unlucky with a few of his putts at the beginning of his round yesterday. He is hitting the ball a mile off the tee, which will give him an advantage over Morikawa over the weekend and whether he can make it count on the greens will probably decide if he wins this or not. 11/4 is favoured over the 21/10 on offer for Morikawa.
Third favourite Jordan Spieth shouldn't be discounted and is also performing highly tee to green, ranking 3rd. He has two strong leaders ahead of him though and single figure odds aren't enticing us.
Where is the value?
Given the quality of the leaders and only three places on offer, we don't see much each way value and will take a look at the two balls after a successful 7/5 play on Max Homa yesterday.
Round 3 Bet
6th January 2023, 11:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Morikawa |
-9 |
| Spaun |
-9 |
| Rahm |
-9 |
| Kim |
-8 |
| Six players tied |
-7 |
Round 1 Summary
Just like last year, conditions were once again ideal in round one and scoring was low.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"This is the firmest I've seen it and not even -- I don't even know what to say to that because it plays very short. I mean, if I'm hitting good tee shots and using the driver, maybe on 3 and 4 if it's windy you'll have more than a 9-iron in. Besides that, it's all wedge shots. I can't really, it's driver, wedge for the most part all day, especially when there's not wind like this. So with greens being receptive and rolling as well as they are, you have to shoot low." Jon Rahm
"I played the Bahamas, so a month off, which isn't too long. We had a bit of a busy December with the holidays and Christmas and everything. But, yeah, it was good to shake off some rust. I feel like my game's in a good spot and hopefully I'll improve as the week goes on." Scottie Scheffler
"Beginning of the week the prep felt great. Didn't really see many putts go in. It was nice to see one go in on 4 from like 30 feet. That just kind of got the round propelled from there." Collin Morikawa
Round 2 Weather
Sunny with the wind expected to peak at 17mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jon Rahm remains market favourite at 11/4. The Spaniard continued where he left off last year and has now played his last five rounds at Kapalua in 42 under par! However, it should be noted that Rahm's score was heavily reliant on a hot putter. The world number five gained almost four strokes on the greens in round one.
Collin Morikawa is another who picked up where he left off last year. A final round 62 in last year's event will have given him good memories coming into the week and it's certainly a worry for the field when he's gaining strokes putting. The two time Major winner is available at 7/1 and is certainly worth keeping an eye on this week.
Scottie Scheffler is 15/2 third favourite. He led the SG: Tee to Green stats through the opening round, an impressive achievement given he admitted to a spot of rust coming into the week. He could be one to watch as the week goes on.
Where is the value?
Four of the last five winners at Kapalua have been inside the top four after the opening round. We're not looking too far down the leaderboard.
Round 2 Bet
Event stats
Available shortly.
