Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -6.12pts
Pre-Event Bets: -4.12pts
1.5pts EW Hideki Matsuyama (1/5 1-6) - 50/1 @ William Hill
1pt EW Daniel Berger (1/5 1-6) - 28/1 @ Betfair
1pt EW Collin Morikawa (1/5 1-6) - 28/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts EW Adam Scott (1/5 1-6) - 50/1 @ Betfred
0.5pts EW Way Martin Laird FRL (1/4 1-5) - 80/1 @ Betfred
0.5pts EWRobert Streb FRL (1/4 1-5) - 80/1 @ Betfred
In-Play Bets: -2pts
8 January 2021 (-2 Pts)
0.5pts Each Way Robert Streb (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 80/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts Each Way Nick Taylor (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 100/1 @ Skybet
9 January 2021 (-2 Pts)
1pt Brendon Todd Bogey Free Round - 7/1@ Skybet
1pt Martin Laird Bogey Free Round - 11/1@ Skybet
10 January 2021 (+2 Pts)
2pts Sungjae Im Top 5 Finish 2/1 @ 888 Sport
Course Notes 2021
Fall Momentum - You often hear many players speaking of "carrying momentum from the fall" into the new year. Harris English was the latest example with form figures of 5-6-28-6 to end the year. Niemann, Thomas and Palmer also finished 2020 strongly.
Hero World Challenge - It wasn't played in 2020 but previous years have shown players who challenge there in December tend to do well at Kapalua.
Bogey Free Rounds - When the wind is down, the course doesn't offer much defence. Winds were forecasted at 20mph but not enough to slow down the scoring until the last day. 67 or less is required to keep pace which puts emphasis on strong putting.
Player Notes 2021
Harris English - Q. You've only been here once before. Did you see a 65 coming when you woke up this morning? HARRIS ENGLISH: I mean, I've watched this tournament a lot. I mean, that's the, I guess the thing of coming here once and not being here for seven years is you really miss it and you really are gunning to get back here. So I watched this tournament every single year, so I kind of know how these shots play. I know how to play this course and I saw some low scores last year. I mean, you drive the ball well out here, you're going to have a lot of short irons, a lot of wedges, and you just got to get your putting dialed in.
Ryan Palmer - Q. This would seem to be a difficult golf course to feel comfortable on given all the possibilities and the winds that could pick up. But for the way you flight the golf ball and the creativity you need to play this golf course, do you feel comfortable here? RYAN PALMER: Yeah, there's a lot of shots I had to hit some flighted wedges and little choke-down shot I've got to hit and I'm able to flight the ball real easy. So winds were up and down but nothing really severe. But I was able to take control of my ball flight and I hit a lot of close ones on the back nine.
Nick Taylor - Q. Back to the golf course, we were expecting the winds to die down even more than they were today, how does it change how this golf course plays if there isn't the traditional 20 mile an hour, 30 mile an hour winds like were you talking about? NICK TAYLOR: Yeah, some holes will play longer, some will play shorter, it -- obviously, it makes it more of a second shot golf course, you got to attack from where you are. With most of the par-5s being gettable, 14's a hole you want to try to take advantage of as well. So it's a second shot golf course and then from there the greens are soft and they're not as speedy I think as they normally are, so you can make some putts and be a little more aggressive I think than normal.
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw
Tournament played here since: 1999
Type of Course: Coastal, exposed to wind for much of the course.
Fairways: Widest on tour, undulating, firm.
Greens: Extremely large, Bermuda
Par 5's: 5th, 9th, 15th, 18th.
Water Hazards: None
Premium on: Aggressive play, putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The course played significantly tougher in 2020 following renovations in 2019. It played firmer with greens not as receptive and the wind was up. Winner Justin Thomas averaged 69.5 when the winners between 2008-2019 averaged 67.25.
This event has it's biggest field to date as champions in 2020 are joined by all players who qualified for the Tour Championship. The field this week is 42.
Of all those invited, only Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton have chosen not to play. Jom Herman has withdrawn due to a positive Covid-19 result.
A number of players have not competed since the US Masters in November. With that in mind, players might not be at their sharpest.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning Score
From 2015-2019, the winning score was low 20's, however in 2020 it was only -14. Allowing for the course changes and wind conditions, we can expect somewhere around -18 to get the job done.
Winners Price
Correlating Courses
Course Form
Thomas arrived in 2020 with a previous win and 3rd place at Kapalua. He has two wins along with Dustin Johnson. Schaufelle and Reed both have a win and a 2nd. Due to the nature of the course, experience is an important factor. In fact, there hasn't been a debutant winner at Kapalua since 2008. Out of the 2020 top 5, only Niemann had not posted a previous top 5.
Recent Form
Although it is the first event of the year, 10 of the last 11 winners all arrived following a top 10 in their previous event, and the other was 14th. Look for someone who played well towards the end of the year.
Nationality
Americans have dominated here, the last 10 events have been won by them.
Stats Analysis
We are looking for a solid all round game to win here.
SG: Off The Tee
Solid driving is required as the past four winners have ranked no worse than 6th in this category. (It is notable that driving accuracy is not important here as some fairways are over 50 yards wide. Only one winner in the last 10 years has ranked inside the top 10 for driving accuracy.)
SG: Approach
Due to the size of the greens, proximity to hole is important. The past four winners have ranked 2nd, 4th, 7th and 7th in this category.
SG: Around The Green
The past four winners have ranked 8th, 4th, 4th and 13th in this category.
SG: Putting
The past four winners ranked 13th, 3rd, 6th and 4th in this category. (Note - The last four winners ranked 1st or 2nd for putts per GIR). Due to the large greens, being able to manage the long distance putting is essential for success here.
In-Play
Tough Holes
Birdie Holes
Fast or Slow Start
Out of the top 6 in 2020, only Patrick Reed was not in the top 10 after round 1 and didn't break 70 in round one. The winner, Justin Thomas, sat 1 shot off the lead in 2nd place.
In 2019, winner Xander Schauffele was 6 shots back after round one. He was the only player in the top 6 after 72 holes who wasn't in the top 10 after round one. Schaueffele is also the only winner in the last 10 years who hasn't opened with a 69 or better.
In general, you want to be up with the pace early on, although there are exceptions.
Closing stretch
Fast or Slow Start
Out of the top 6 in 2020, only Patrick Reed was not in the top 10 after round 1 and didn't break 70 in round one. The winner, Justin Thomas, sat 1 shot off the lead in 2nd place.
In 2019, winner Xander Schauffele was 6 shots back after round one. He was the only player in the top 6 after 72 holes who wasn't in the top 10 after round one. Schaueffele is also the only winner in the last 10 years who hasn't opened with a 69 or better.
In general, you want to be up with the pace early on, although there are exceptions.
Pre-Event Bets
1.5pts Each Way Hideki Matsuyama 18/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-6)
It was a choice between Webb or Hideki for our headline tip and with doubt over Webb that decision has been made much easier. Hideki has an incredible record here, finishing 3rd, 2nd and 4th in his last three appearances. It's no wonder he is on record as saying he “loves” Kapalua. He finished the season well with a 2nd at Houston and a solid showing at the Masters so there's every reason to think he will be in good shape this week. Finally, since Hideki last played here, the greens have been replaced with TifEagle Bermuda and Hideki has an excellent record on that surface. It may be the added edge he needs to get the W.
1pt Each Way Daniel Berger 28/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
A common theme with our four picks is the ability to start well after a break. Daniel emphatically ticks that box with a win in 2020 at the Charles Schwab, the first event back after play stopped for Covid. His second career win also came after a three week break. Finally, he had a total of seven top 10 finishes in 2020, five of those coming after a week off. He's undoubtedly a player who plays best when fresh. A couple of top 15 finishes in his two appearances here are also encouraging and he's a far better player than when he last teed it up. He missed out on the Masters in November, he'll have a point to prove.
1pt Each Way Collin Morikawa 28/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-6)
Last seen at the DP World Tour Championship in the middle of December, Collin has only been away from competitive action for just over three weeks. He's another player who goes well when fresh and we saw that last year here as he notched up a 7th place finish. Just to emphasise how well Collin does when fresh, he's had 13 top 10s in his short professional career and 10 of those have come after at least a week off. A fine ball striker, he'll relish the test this week.
0.5pts Each Way Adam Scott 50/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Adam turned 40 this past July and he's on record as stating he wants to maximise the next five years of his career to make sure he gets the most out of it. Evidence of that newfound determination is clear as he tees it up here for the first time since 2014. A similar result to that of 2014 (he finished 6th), would be enough to see him claim the place money this week. He's another player who goes well fresh, having won the Genesis Invitational on his first start of the year in 2020. Having contracted Covid, he only played six tournaments last year when play resumed and he'll be itching to get off to a fast start in 2021.
0.5pts Each Way Martin Laird FRL 80/1 @ Betfred (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Robert Streb FRL 90/1 @ Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Martin and Robert are out in the first two groups and should have the best of conditions to try and put a score on the board. The wind is forecast to be slightly stronger later in the day and whilst not a huge advantage for our pair, it's an advantage nonetheless. We saw Kevin Tway shoot the lowest round one score here in 2019 when out early, so there's history of early performers doing well. Both have top 10 finishes at Kapalua in the past and both have strong first round records here. The FRL each way bet came in for Robert Streb in his sole appearance here in 2014 and the FRL each way bet also came in for Martin Laird on two of his three prior appearances.
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