Preview

Course Info

The North Course at Detroit Golf Club hosted the inaugural Rocket Mortgage Classic last year and it once again welcomes the PGA Tour.  Designed by renowned course architect Donald Ross over 100 years ago, it is a par 72 with four par 3s and four par 5s. 

The par 3s consist of two shorter holes (5th and 15th) and two longer holes (9th and 11th), with the 233 yard 11th playing as the hardest hole in 2019.  The par 5s are all reachable in two, with the exception of the 4th hole which is 635 yards and played as the hardest par 5 in 2019. 

Nate Lashley won last year with a score of 25 under, and the cut was made at -5, the lowest on the PGA Tour since 2016.  A birdie fest would normally be expected but tournament organisers are quoted as saying they will make the course slightly harder this year.

Last year the rough was set at 3.5 inches, as per PGA Tour protocol for first time tournaments.  However, it will be "a bit longer" in 2020.  It is also worth noting that pin placements are likely to be trickier given that last year the Tour instruction
to use all four quadrants of greens at new events applied.  ShotLink data will be used to potentially double up pin positions this year.

The 2019 tournament was played in benign conditions with barely even a slight breeze.  The forecast looks like we will get much the same again this year.  The organisers are keen to ensure birdies remain the order of the day but we should expect to see a higher winning score than 2019.
 

Significant Info

Several more players and caddies tested positive for Covid-19 last week when competing at the Travelers Championship. We should be alert to the possibility of a number of other players being affected. Two of our Six To Watch last week withdrew prior to the tournament starting.

Continue to exercise caution at the outset, especially in relation to those who haven't teed it up yet and keep a watching brief in play.

Trends

With only one event to draw upon we have no significant trends.  It is worth mentioning that the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic and 2019 Canadian Open had very similar leaderboards.  The Canadian Open was played three weeks before the Rocket Mortgage in 2019 and five of the top 10 at the Rocket Mortgage had teed it up at the Canadian Open.  Of those five, three had finished in the top 11 in Canada. 

Given that Detroit Golf Club and Hamilton Golf & Country Club (Canadian Open course) don't share many similar characteristics, we can put this down to players maintaining their form from Canada.

Stats Analysis

The top four last year told us that great driving isn't essential here. Only Rory Sabbatini ranked inside the top 25 for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Here's a rundown of how they performed:

Nate Lashley - Ranked inside top 12 in every Strokes Gained category other than Off the tee (29th)
Doc Redman - Ranked inside top 18 in every Strokes Gained category other than Off the tee (25th)
Rory Sabbatini - Only Strokes Gained rankings inside top 10 were Off the tee (9th) and putting (10th)
Wes Roach - Ranked inside top 10 for every Strokes Gained category other than Off the tee (32nd) and Putting (31st)

We are therefore looking for a player who is sharp with irons and finds a hot putter.

In Play

Looking at last year's leaderboard, only one of the top 10 failed to shoot a 68 or better in the opening round.  With relatively easy conditions it's unlikely players will be able to catch up if they make a slow start.  Nate Lashley won wire to wire last year and we should favour players who get off to a relatively good start.

Six To Watch

Patrick Reed - 16/1 @ William Hill
Patrick finished 5th here in 2019 and looks the best of the shorter priced favourites to take the title this year. An aggressive player, he ranks 5th in birdie average in 2020. He had a poor first round last week at the Travelers but still finished 24th following a last round 64. At the start of last week he spoke of how his game felt good and he was close to a win. This may be the week it happens.

Brendon Todd - 66/1 @ Genting Bet
Brendon is a bit of a gamble as we don't know how he is going to react to his Sunday collapse at River Highlands. He really threw it away but it can't be forgotten how well he played until the last day. As we saw at the back end of last year, he is the type of player who can maintain form for a few weeks at a time and he absolutely loves birdie fests. His profile states... Following his two wins in November 2019, in an article with Golf Digest Todd said “he knows he’s one of the best players in the world from inside 150 yards.” This course will demand lots of iron play from this range so we must take our own research and support Todd to bounce back in style.

Chris Kirk - 110/1 @ Bet365
Chris Kirk cemented his comeback from depression with a win on the Korn Ferry Tour two weeks ago to show
he is on the road back to the player who won four times between 2011-2015 on the PGA Tour. That win was also a course which demands low scoring, shooting 66-65-64-67.
He will take a lot of confidence into this week and four of his wins have come after a week off. He is a shorter hitter which hurts him a lot of time, bu this course doesn't appear to give too much advantage to the bombers and his strong iron game should be suited to the test. There is enough juice in his price to keep a close eye on how he starts.

Matt Wolff - 125/1 @ Betfred
Matt is the least fancied of our picks having been in poor form since the PGA Tour resumed. He finished 54th at Colonial and then missed the cuts at The Heritage and Travelers. However, he won the 3M Open (a low scoring event) at the start of July 2019 having had poor finishes in his two prior starts, so he's not one to write off on recent form alone.
Looking deeper, he missed the cut last week at the Travelers on the number, shooting two rounds in the 60s. He also missed the cut here last year but crucially he shot a 2nd round 68 after opening with a 75, showing he can play the course. He could easily miss the cut but at 125/1 in this field he's worth a punt.

Nate Lashley - 150/1 @ Betfred
Given the lack of course form available, it is nice to know that this selection loves the course already. As a last minute stand-by, he opened with a 63 and never looked back to win by 6 shots. His price represents the struggles he has around difficult golf courses but as quoted last year, this is a course that fits his eye, "A lot of the weeks the courses are really difficult, so it’s a nice change coming here. You hit good shots and you can shoot a good score.”
He also finished 3rd at Greenbrier a couple of months later - a course which has similarities to this one. He has missed both cuts since resuming after the break, but shot 67 on his most recent round at RBC Heritage, enough to show he isn't far away from having a good week. It was only 6 starts ago that he finished 3rd in Phoenix.

Aaron Wise - 150/1 @ BetVictor
Aaron was the PGA Tour Rookie Of The Year in 2018 but went off the boil in 2019 and has started 2020 equally disappointingly. However, this may be the course to turn his fortunes around. He finished 35th here last year despite shooting a final round 72. He's also coming off the back of a 46th place finish at the Travelers Championship where his stats for rounds 2, 3 and 4 were encouraging. Like Matt Wolff, a bit of a gamble but at these odds it may pay off.

In-play

In-Play Blog

5th July 2020

​-19 Wolff
-16 DeChambeau
-16 Armour
-14 Merritt
-14 Hubbard
-14 Power
-14 Kirk

Yesterday morning the odds-setters had this as a two horse race with Webb Simpson and Bryson DeChambeau both around 3/1 to win and next best 16/1.  Today, the odds suggest it's still a two horse race but this time between Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau. 

Despite being 2 under par through 4 holes yesterday, Webb missed too many fairways and had another poor day on the greens as he posted a 1 under 71 to slip out of contention.  

Matt was one of our Six To Watch at 125/1 at the start of the week, so those who took our tip find themselves in a good position as we enter the final round.  Both Matt and Bryson have 4 star ratings in our Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Ratings so we shouldn't expect either to back down. 

They also have history of competing down the stretch, with Matt prevailing almost a year ago at the 3M Open when he eagled the last hole to pip Bryson by a shot.  Hopefully he wins again today!

It's a course where low scores are possible, but it is now hard to see past the top 3 in the betting.  As the odds suggest, Wolff and DeChambeau are a cut above Ryan Armour but he too is competent in contention and cannot be written off. 

With the greens firming up and Bryson's poor Strokes Gained: Approach stats we think that Matt will prevail from here but it is likely to be closer than the 3 shot gap he currently enjoys.  

We had two comfortable winners and one loss yesterday from our three match bets, making it 3 wins out of 4 for the week so far. 

​We also have our 7/1 pick from yesterday, Scott Harrington, nicely primed for a Top 20 finish as he enters the final round in tied 13th position.

Weather-wise today we have much the same as the last few of days with the wind down slightly from yesterday.

0.5pts Troy Merritt Bogey Free Round - 14/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts Adam Schenk Bogey Free Round - 14/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4) Fabian Gomez without Wolff and DeChambeau - 80/1 @ Boylesports

Adam has struck it brilliantly from tee to green.  He's only missed 10 fairways (6 of those came in the first round) and 6 greens all week.  Unexpectedly, he leads the field in greens in regulation and is 14th for driving accuracy.  He was bogey free in Round 1 and has had only three bogeys in total.  At 14/1, with conditions much the same as previous days, it's a sound bet.

This bet has won each of the last three days as Troy has yet to record a bogey in this tournament!  It may well be that today is 18 holes too far for him, but at 14/1 we must take a chance.

Given the low odds on the two favourites, Boylesports are running a market without Wolff and DeChambeau.  If you are looking for a riskier punt tonight you could do a lot worse than Fabian Gomez at 80/1. 

It's likely that Ryan Armour will win, but given he's 3/1 we've opted for Gomez as there are each way places available.  He is currently 13th (or 11th if you take out Wolff and DeChambeau) on 12 under par, but he's been trending in the right direction this week given he's fired rounds of 70-68-66. 

As you might expect from these improved scores, his stats have been trending nicely too.  If he can keep this going he's a good bet at 80/1 in this market.

4th July 2020

​-12 Kirk
-12 Simpson
-11 Power
-11 Wolff
-11 DeChambeau
-11 Armour
-11 Werenski
-11 Hubbard

It's a two horse race according to the odds-setters with Webb Simpson and Bryson DeChambeau both around 3/1 to win and next best 16/1.  That said, there are 19 players within three shots of the lead and 29 within four, so a couple of low rounds over the weekend could see any of those players win. 

Yesterday was almost a day to remember for us as our 175/1 second round leader pick, Seamus Power, posted -11 and just missed out by a solitary shot.  However, he did finish the day third so we collected the place money for him.  We also had a comfortable winner in our only 18 hole match up bet as Harold Varner III beat Alex Noren by six shots.

Weather-wise today we have much the same as the last couple of days with the wind slightly up but we should still expect to see low scores.

0.5pts Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4) Cameron Tringale 3rd Round Leader - 100/1 @ William Hill
0.5pts Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4) Hudson Swafford 3rd Round Leader - 100/1 @ William Hill
0.5pts Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4) JJ Spaun 3rd Round Leader - 150/1 @ William Hill
1pt Each Way (1/4 1,2,3,4) Brian Stuard without Simpson and DeChambeau - 33/1 @ Boylesports
1pt Scott Harington Top 20 Finish - 7/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook
2ptsMark Hubbard to beat Richy Werenski  (Mythical 2 ball bet) - 10/11 @ Bet365
2ptsKevin Kisner to beat Sepp Straka - 19/20 @ 888 Sport
2ptsWebb Simpson to beat Bryson DeChambeau (Mythical 2 ball bet) - 11-8 @ Skybet

With such a congested leaderboard it's worth putting up a few players for 3rd round leader who are all playing nicely but just haven't quite got the putter working.  Swafford (2nd SG: Tee to Green), Spaun (9th SG: Tee To Green) and Tringale (16th SG: Tee To Green) all have the potential to shoot low today. At big each way prices they are worth a small bet after yesterday's success with Seamus Power.

This is Stuard's home event and he finished 5th here last year.  He's playing solidly and in a market without the two favourites 33/1 represents each way value.  He shot 65 and 68 on the weekend last year. A similar performance this time would see him go close.

Harrington is 7 under par, one shot outside 20th.  He's driving the ball really nicely (9th Strokes Gained: Off The Tee) and his iron play is solid (2nd Greens in Regulation) too.  He's had mixed fortunes on the greens, putting terribly on day one but really well yesterday.  If he can continue in that vein the 7/1 looks far too big.

Hubbard is playing some really good golf, describing the game as "easy" in yesterday's press conference.  His stats back this up, showing that he's 4th Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.  Werenski has had a couple of great days on the greens and whilst his long game stats (31st in SG: Tee to Green) aren't terrible, he does rank lower than Mark.  Taking into account their respective Round 3 Scoring Averages (Hubbard is 8th and Werenski is 181st) this is a bet worth taking on.

To demonstrate just how good Simpson's ball striking was yesterday, he shot -8 with negative Strokes Gained:Putting.  He ranks 1st in SG: Tee to Green compared to his opponent's ranking of 35th.  Webb ranks 2nd in Round 3 Scoring Average whilst Bryson ranks 107th.  Bryson's round 3 scoring problems have been well documented by us (he's only broken 70 three times in ten 3rd round appearances this season) so he is very much one to take on.  

Kisner and Straka are similarly matched in terms of long game stats this week but Kevin is the better player and can be backed to prevail.  Sepp holed a plethora of long range putts yesterday and that surely won't be repeated today.  At just under evens Kevin is a solid play.

3rd July 2020

​-7 Redman
-7 Stallings
-7 Kisner
-6 DeChambeau
-6 Malnati
-6 Grillo
-6 Seiffert
-6 Spaun
-6 Wallace
-6 Stroud

Unsurprisingly, Bryson DeChambeau stole the headlines again yesterday, firing an opening 66 to finish in 4th place after 18 holes. Astonishingly, he averaged 358.5 yards for driving distance - with one drive CARRYING 343 yards.

He is now one off the lead and the clear 3/1 favourite. If his wedge game can improve he has the ability to run away from the field, the same way Nate Lashley did here last year. It must be noted though that he putted extremely well yesterday, finishing +3.964 for Strokes Gained Putting so he would be doing well to replicate that.

Early starters Doc Redman and Scott Stallings lead the way, along with Kevin Kisner who joined them with 4 birdies in his last 6 holes. Out of the 3, it looks like Stallings represents the best value at 22/1. However, given there are 45 players within 3 shots, it is best to hold tight to see what today brings.

​Instead, we concentrate on the 2nd Round Leader market where William Hill are offering some extremely juicy prices with 5 places on offer each way (other bookmakers only offering 4 places). If you don't yet have a William Hill account, our links provided will give you a free £30 bet when you join.

1pt Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) Henrik Norlander 2nd Round Leader - 66/1 @ William Hill
1pt Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) Hudson Swafford 2nd Round Leader - 66/1 @ William Hill
0.5pts Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) Seamus Power 2nd Round Leader - 175/1 @ William Hill
2ptsHarold Varner to beat Alex Noren (Mythical 2 ball bet) - Evens @ Bet Victor

First of our selections is Henrik Norlander who sits two shots off the lead. The Swedish youngster impressed yesterday, finishing 6th SG: Approach the green and 13th SG: Off the tee. He is finding fairways which inevitable offers birdie chances here, if the putter heats up he could go low. 

Also at 66/1 and two shots off the lead, big hitting Hudson Swafford shot -5 yesterday which was a fair effort considering his putter wasn't hot, finishing -0.446 SG: Putting. He ranked 3rd SG: Tee to green and is simply too big at 66/1 to lead after 36 holes. 

Finally another big hitter, Irishman Seamus Power, is worth a small nibble at monster odds of 175/1. He is an unpredictable sort but hit 12/14 fairways yesterday and if he continues to drive long and straight he will also have plenty of chances. It is not impossible he sneaks a place in the top 5 after 36 holes. 

We have one 18 hole match bet to add. We think Harold Varner represents good value to go lower than Alex Noren today. Varner beat Noren by 2 shots yesterday, but was almost last in the field for SG: Putting. He was 8th for SG: Tee to green, so even the slightest of improvements on the greens should see him beating Noren comfortably. Noren only hit 50% of fairways yesterday so Varner's long game is definitely in better shape.