RBC Canadian Open 2022

Event Info

Starts: 9th June 2022
Course: St George's G&CC, Toronto
Par: 70
Length: 7,014 yards
2021 Champion: N/A

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Stanley Thompson
Last Used: 2010
Fairways: Narrow
Rough: Thick
Greens: Undulating
Premium on: Accuracy

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

This course was last used in 2010.

All 18 greens were reconstructed in 2014. The work on the greens was led by Tom Doak and Ian Andrew.

Weather

Thursday
Rain showers in the afternoon. Wind of 10mph.
Friday
Cloudy - Max 9mph winds forecast
Saturday
Rain showers - Max 7mph winds forecast
Sunday
Rain showers - Max 9mph winds forecast

Trends

Winning Score
Carl Petterson won in 2010 with a winning score of -14. Having made the cut on the number, the Swede would shoot a 60 in round 3 to propel him to victory.

Course Form
Few of the field played in 2010 and the ones that did are unlikely to benefit significantly from an event played 12 years ago.

Recent Form
The top two players in 2010 both missed the cut in their last start before teeing it up at St George's G&CC.

World Ranking
Petterson was 202nd in the world when he triumphed. Runner up, Dean Wilson, was 522nd!

Nationality
With only one event having been played here recently, it makes little sense to focus on any nationality trends from 2010.

Quotes from 2010

"Today is my second time playing it, and I feel like the rough's pretty tough this week, so you definitely gotta hit fairways. And you know, you really don't want to be shortsiding yourself and long on the greens. You really want to stay below the holes. The greens are pretty sloped from back to front. And I think that's going to be pretty important just try to control the speed on a lot of the greens.
A few of them you can't even keep it on even if you pretty much tap it. So I think it's a really solid test, and I think just keeping it below the hole is really important this week." Matt Hill

"I think they're a great greens speed right now for the slope. Otherwise, you know, it's tough to find pins out there right now, so if you have any bounce here, you can really lose some pin placements out there. So yeah, I can't think of any. I mean Westchester Country Club that we used to play had some pretty severe greens, but not -- you know, I think there's probably a couple greens out there that are semi-flat, and there's probably 15 of them that are very severe. So I guess overall consistency of very difficult greens, I can't think of any outside of really Augusta that are this difficult." Mike Weir

"I just feel kind of a similar sort of course to Hamilton where I played decent before as well. So such a good golf, I'm going to go out and enjoy playing. A course like this is a good test, a test, you gotta drive it straight. And then with the greens being so severe, you've gotta really hit the ball in the right spot. So it's not a course I don't think that suits anyone in particular. I think it suits a long hitter or short hitter. Short hitters have as much chance here as the bombers, so I just feel like it's a good level playing field." Nathan Green

"It's obviously old school. It's tough. Gotta keep the ball below the hole. Gotta keep the ball in the fairway. And you know, I think there are plenty of birdies out there, but it's incredibly easy to make bogeys, as I found out on Monday and today. I like it. I've got a friend of mine who's been a member here for 20 years caddie for me today. Showed us around a little bit, tried to figure out where to go. And you know, I like it. If the wind's blowing like it did when we finished up our pro am here, I think it's going to be very difficult." Paul Casey

"The rough is I would say it's probably thicker than this year's U.S. Open, because I think the USGA pretty much have realized that coming out of a three-inch rough or two-and-a-half-inch rough which is basically what it's gone to now, three inches of rough, challenging the guys to get the ball to stop on the greens that we play the U.S. Open course on is much tougher. These greens are going to be a little softer. Really not going to get it to the standard of a U.S. Open, for a couple of reasons: We don't want to lose the golf course; and two, the greens have probably three times more slope on them than Pebble Beach, and I use that as an example. But yeah, this one it's the kind of rough that you would -- if you're lucky, you can get an 8-iron on if you're lucky. Yeah, it's that thick. Yeah, so that's going to be the challenging part." Stephen Ames

In Play

Closing Stretch
The last two holes play as long par 4s, having originally played as par 5s.

Fast or Slow Start
Car Pettersson only made the cut on the number in 2010 so comebacks are possible.

In-play

RBC Canadian Open In-Play Blog

12 June 2022, 8:45am (UK time)

Player	Total
Finau	-11
McIlroy	-11
Thomas	-9
Burns	-9
Clark	-9
Smalley	-9
Cook	-7
Knous	-7

Round 3 Summary

A best of the week 62 from Tony Finau moved him into a share of the lead with Rory McIlroy.

Notable Round 3 Quotes

"Sort of feels pretty similar to last time at Hamilton, I was just trying to get myself in that final group with Webb and I was able to, tied for the lead there. So, yeah, just sets me up well for tomorrow. Feel like all aspects of my game are in pretty good shape, so just go out there and try and post a number and see if that's good enough." Rory McIlroy

"I drove throughout this country in 2013 playing the PGA TOUR Canada and have lot of great fond memories here. I actually played with J.J. Spaun the first couple days, it was a comfortable grouping, we traveled together played in Canada in 2013. So it does feel almost like a home game. I definitely get a lot of love from the fans, which is pretty amazing. I can tell they have been locked up a little bit over the last couple years." Tony Finau

"I drove it a little bit better today but when I didn't I just was trying to make par. This rough is so long that it's not necessarily a place where, when you do get out of position, you can attack and still try to make birdie. I feel like I did that today. I've really done it all week. If you drive it well, you do have a lot of scoring clubs in. I'm definitely not hitting my wedges as well as I would like. I'm hitting a lot of short irons and wedges kind of that 12 to 15 foot range when I feel like I generally hit them inside of 10 feet, or I at least would like to. So it's just staying patient because you can have rounds like today out there on this golf course." Justin Thomas

Round 4 Weather

Thunderstorms may interrupt play. Rain is a possibility with wind peaking at 10mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Rory McIlroy is 13/8 favourite. He was impressive yesterday, particularly towards the end of his round and it's notable he appears to be drawing positive memories from his previous Canadian Open win in 2019.

McIlroy has been poor in contention of late and holds a ⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. With proven winners lurking, McIlroy will be put under pressure today and odds of 13/8 make no appeal.

Tony Finau is 11/4 2nd favourite and he makes more appeal. He's been better tee to green than his fellow leader and he has a marginally better Pressure Performance Rating. Finau has a ⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and has certainly been better than McIlroy when in contention the past 12 months.

Where is the value?

Given the calibre of players at 11 and 9 under par, it's hard to see a winner emerge from outside the top six on the leaderboard. We will be cheering 150/1 pre-event tip, Alex Smalley, at big odds but want to add one more play.

Round 4 Bet

1.5pts Win Only Sam Burns 13/2 @ General

Tony Finau was considered given he appears to be comfortable in Canada, drawing upon positive memories from his time playing the Canadian Tour. However, Sam can't be ignored given his fabulous record when chasing. His last thee Tour wins have come from behind and with both McIlroy and Finau capable of an off day, Burns could capitalise. He's 7th SG: Tee To Green this week and a good day with the driver will see him go close.

+ - Round 3 Bet Click to collapse

11 June 2022, 8:05am (UK time)

Player	Total
Clark	-7
Fitzpatrick	-6
Smalley	-6
Mitchell	-6
Knous	-6
McIlroy	-6
Cook	-5

Round 2 Summary

It looked like Matt Fitzpatrick would lead going into the weekend but a double bogey on 14 and bogeys on 16, 17 and 18 dropped him back to six under par. Wyndham Clark also dropped shots coming in but a scrambled par on 18 was enough for a one shot lead.

Notable Round 2 Quotes

"I think the only thing this golf course needs for it to feel a little more major like is just a bit of length. I think that's the only thing that's missing. The rough is very penal, the greens are tricky, the wind's up, it's drying out a little bit because of the wind. All of a sudden you've got a pretty testing golf course. So, but as I said, it's, if you drive it well there's a bunch of wedges in your hand and you can still, there's so many opportunities to make birdies out here. Overall it was a good score today. I scrambled well when I needed to. I didn't really take advantage of how well I hit it off the tee. But overall I felt it was, a couple under was a fair reflection of how the day went." Rory McIlroy

"I like the golf course. I've played well around it and made a lot of birdies already. So got to be positive going into tomorrow. Disappointing finish, but definitely not out of it and can go shoot another low one tomorrow." Matt Fitzpatrick

"I felt really good. I didn't feel terrible with my ball striking. I just, it was a little tougher, the wind was sporadic and if you missed some fairways it's hard to hit the greens. I have a great short game and I'm a good putter so if I miss greens I don't freak out too much. Going forward on the weekend I would like to hit some more greens. So I'm not too concerned. I think I'm going to hit it great tomorrow.." Wyndham Clark

"I feel like most of the fairways are fairly generous and it's not super firm. I can't imagine what this course would be like if it's, if the ball was running 30 or 40 yards in the fairway. Yeah, I like it. I like grass, this type of grass. The views are nice. I feel like I do pretty well on courses that have some elevation changes. So I like that aspect of it as well." Alex Smalley

Round 3 Weather

Thunderstorms may interrupt play and rain is forecast throughout the day.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Rory McIlroy is 7/2 favourite but it's hard to build a solid case for him. His regular caddie, Harry Diamond, is off the bag this week due to his wife expecting their 2nd child. Furthermore, McIlroy's score so far has largely been reliant on a hot putter. He ranks 2nd SG: Putting so far this week but 32nd SG: Tee to Green. With attention surely turning to the US Open next week, we're happy to pass him over at the odds.

Matt Fitzpatrick is 5/1 2nd favourite. He had a terrible end to his round yesterday and that's a concern. He was poor under pressure at the PGA Championship and we're not overly keen to back him at 5/1 when he's yet to win in America. That said, his stats this week have been solid and he'll likely hang around the top of the leaderboard over the weekend.

Where is the value?

Alex Smalley leads the field in SG: Tee to Green but we are already on him pre-event at 150/1 and 18/1 seems short considering McIlroy, Scheffler, Burns and Fitzpatrick are all within three shots of the lead.

We mentioned in the preview that Carl Petterson came from the cut line to win here in 2010 and the forecasted rain may well cause some movement on the leaderboard. Keep an eye on those players making an early move today.

Shane Lowry is a potential beneficiary given his liking for poor conditions. With the rough set to become lush after the rain, driving accuracy will be at a premium and Lowry ranks 2nd in that category over the opening 2 rounds. Odds of 12/1 are worth considering.

Round 3 Bet

0.5pts Each Way Danny Lee 125/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)

Danny is another we backed pre-event at big odds but conditions look perfect for him to record a big finish and we want to top up. He ranks 8th in Driving Accuracy for the week and 5th SG: Tee to Green. If you remove Wyndham Clark from the equation, Lee is only three shots off the pace. Not every player will enjoy playing in the forecasted rain over the weekend but Lee is a proven bad weather player and we think he will relish the test.

+ - Round 2 Bet Click to collapse

10 June 2022, 9:05am (UK time)

Player	Total
Clark	-7
Fitzpatrick	-6
Ghim	-5
Varner	-5
Finau	-4
Hughes	-4
McIlroy	-4
Hodges	-4

Round 1 Summary

Three of the four best scores came from the morning wave. Wyndham Clark set the target for everyone to chase.

Notable Round 1 Quotes

"66 around here is a good score. I felt like the course was there to go even lower just from the rain and how receptive it was. Overall, very happy with the start of the week, especially coming off a disappointing weekend at the Memorial last weekend. It was nice to bounce back with a good score." Rory McIlroy

"I played really well. Really, really happy with the way I played today, just solid all around. Had a couple opportunities to chip it a little bit closer, but other than that, I'm being really picky. Everything in my game was going well. So, yeah, I'm happy with the start." Matt Fitzpatrick

"...kind of like that old fashioned Donald Ross type of deal. Super cool. We don't really see many courses like this anymore, I feel like. Yeah, the greens are very undulating. You have to try to keep the ball below the hole. Some of them are very narrow as well so just to hit them. If you hit the green, you're probably going to have a good look at birdie." Doug Ghim

Round 2 Weather

The weather forecast indicates conditions will be sunny with the wind peaking at 12mph in the afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Matt Fitzpatrick is the 4/1 favourite after a solid opening round. The world number 17 has been close to a win all season and whilst this could well be his week, odds of 4/1 aren't appealing after his poor performance in contention at the PGA Championship.

Rory McIlroy is 5/1 2nd favourite and he makes more appeal. However, the last time this course was used for the Canadian Open (2010) we saw some shock names contending and we're happy to pass up single figure odds at this stage.

Where is the value?

Harold Varner was under consideration in the 2nd round leader market. He'll have the best of conditions in the morning to try and set a score. We also liked Alex Smalley in the outright market at 80/1 but the bet is only available with Spreadex and we're already on him pre-event at 150/1.

Round 2 Bet

0.5pts Each Way Jonas Blixt 300/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-5)

Jonas is worth a small investment given he's shown glimpses that he's coming into some form. He topped his qualifying section for the US Open on Monday and got off to a solid start yesterday. It's been a few years since he has been in contention but he's a three time winner on Tour and we're happy to chance odds of 300/1.

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