Preview

Course Info

Course Designer: Greg Norman
Tournament played here since: 2007
Type of Course: Coastal, exposed to wind for much of the course.
Fairways: Wild tee shots will be severely punished.
Greens: Paspalum greens which will run 11 on the Stimpmeter.
Par 5's: 5th, 7th and 13th
Water Hazards: Water in play on 10 holes.
Premium on: Accurate approach play with a hot putter.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

 

This event is the last event of the PGA Tour season.  Some players may be on "holiday mode" or working on aspects of their game in preparation for next season.

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. 

Trends

Winning Score: Since 2013, the winning score has been between -17 and -22.

Course Form: Since the event moved to it's current slot in the calendar (in 2013), six of the past seven champions have played the event before.  It is not an event to side with course debutants.

Recent Form: Three of the last seven champions had posted a top 7 finish in their previous start.  Of the remaining four players, only one (Matt Kuchar) had not recorded a top 40 finish in their previous start.  Recent form is important.

Nationality: Americans have dominated here.  The only non-American to win was Graeme McDowell in 2015.

Age: The average age of winners here is 34.  Ten winners have been in their 30s. Players with experience and ability to control the ball are preferred.

Stats Analysis

Driving Distance: None of the last five winners have finished inside the top 15 for driving distance and three of these winners finished outside the top 50 in this category.

Driving Accuracy: None of the last five winners have finished inside the top 15 for driving accuracy and four of the last five winners weren't even in the top 24 for this category.

Greens In Regulation: Three of the last five winners finished in the top 12 for greens in regulation.  The two winners who did not (Matt Kuchar and Graeme McDowell) made up for it with excellent putting weeks.

Putts Per GIR: Every single winner has finished in the top 8 for putts per GIR.  A hot putter is essential.

In Play

Fast or Slow Start: Every winner has posted a score of -2 or better in the first round.  Two of the last five winners have opened with a round of 63 or better.

Pre-Event Bets

1pt Each Way Marc Leishman 50/1 888Sport 1/5 1-6

Marc has been poor since the resumption of golf in June. He gave an interview three weeks ago citing the lack of fans and the energy they gave him as the reason why his results have dropped off. He stated that he was addressing the issue and also stated that a visit from his swing coach had improved his set up. We saw instant results as he finished 13th at the Masters, ranking 5th for Greens In Regulation and 16th for Driving Accuracy. Finally, he played here in 2016, placing 24th. A quality player on his day, he could go well this week.

1pt Each Way Brendon Todd 50/1 Betfred 1/5 1-7

Brendon is the defending champion here and can be expected to put up a strong defence. He’s been off the boil in recent weeks owing to a fractured toe (he dropped a weight on his foot in the gym) before the CJ Cup. However, he appears to be back to full fitness and warmed up for this with a solid 37th place finish at the RSM Classic. He was first for Driving Accuracy that week, missing only five fairways. He needs to improve with the irons but this is normally a strength of his game so we aren’t overly concerned. He referenced in his pre-tournament interview how conditions this week will be similar to last year and that bodes well. His world ranking is 47 so he needs a good week to ensure he stays in the Top 50.

1pt Each Way Kevin Streelman 70/1 William Hill 1/5 1-8

Currently 52nd in the world, Kevin needs a big finish to break into the world’s top 50 and secure a Masters spot next year (see quote below). He has a 4th place finish here in 2016 and a 20th place finish in 2017. His recent form hasn’t been great, coming into this week on the back of a 54th place finish at the RSM two weeks ago. However, his stats that week were excellent as he ranked 2nd Greens in Regulation (4th SG: Approach) and 25th for Driving Accuracy.

"If I had had a nice week in Houston I might have shut it down for the year," said Streelman, "but now I've got some unfinished business. I'm on the bubble for the next Masters.”

1pt Each Way John Huh 100/1 William Hill 1/5 1-8

John is another former champion here and he can’t be overlooked this week on the strength of his recent play. A 12th place finish last time out at the RSM was underpinned by accurate driving and iron play as he ranked 14th and 15th for Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation. He’s a player on the comeback trail after injury and given he has only played three events since March he’ll be hungry to put in a good performance. Notably he also celebrated his 30th birthday in May this year and it may be this serves as a source of inspiration.

1pt Each Way Chris Kirk 100/1 William Hill 1/5 1-8

Chris was one of our picks last week and we are sticking with him again. He was 18th at the RSM, ranking inside the top 26 for both Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation. He got off to a slow start last week and we’re hopeful he’ll do better this week with an early tee time tomorrow. He’s a proven performer at the end of the year having won his last event of the season in 2013 and his putter can get hot.

1pt Each Way Brandon Grace 150/1 Skybet 1/5 1-8

Brandon was 30th on his last start at the RSM Classic. Delving deeper into his stats, he was 6th for Driving Accuracy and 39th for Greens in Regulation. However, the quality of his iron play was good as he ranked 23rd for SG: Approach. Brandon hasn’t had the best year since winning the South African Open in January and it’s notable that he hasn’t returned there to defend this week. It would have been the easy option for him to return there so it’s interesting he tees it up in Mexico. He’s the only one of our picks who has never played this event before but it should suit him perfectly given his strong ball flight and success at similar coastal venues.

Inplay

In Play Blog

6th December 2020

-16 Grillo
-15 Hoge
-14 Hovland
​-13 Long
-12 Thomas
-12 Rodgers

Emiliano Grillo's lead has been reduced to one shot with a round to go at the Mayakoba Golf Classic.  He remains favourite at the bookies (9/4) but those behind will have taken encouragement from the fact he slowed up yesterday.  Emiliano only has a 2⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating so he's not one we'd be backing at those odds.  He was really poor when in contention last time out at the Safeway Open and it's hard to see him converting with the quality of players behind him.

If Grillo does open the door, there's quality players waiting to take advantage.  Viktor Hovland and Justin Thomas are the notable names within two and four shots respectively.  Tony Finau isn't out of the equation either.  

Of our pre-event picks, we have hopes for Brendon Todd who is in 11th place and needs a top 7 finish to collect the each way money.

2pts Justin Thomas Win Only - 7/1 @ William Hill

JT sits four back with a round to go but with question marks over Grillo's ability to win, we fancy someone to come from behind.  JT has been playing exceptional golf the past two days and we were surprised to see him available at 7/1.  He shot a 62 yesterday and a 67 on Friday, which he described as the worst possible score he could have shot.  He's been gushing over how he has been hitting the ball and if that level of ball striking continues he's going to go very close today.  He's stated he's "trying to birdie every single hole" so we know he'll be playing aggressive golf today and chasing Grillo will suit him.  He wants the win and we are happy to take the 7/1.

5th December 2020

-13 Grillo
-9 Hoge
-9 Finau
​-8 Knox

A fabulous 63 from Emiliano Grillo saw him open a four shot lead with two rounds to go.  They didn't get to finish the 2nd round due to darkness and several players will have to come back this morning to complete 36 holes.  

Grillo is favourite at the bookies (9/4), with Finau next best at 5/1.  Neither are particularly reliable when in contention so you'd have to question their ability to get the job done.  It's interesting that they both have strong connections with the Puerto Rico Open (Finau's sole win came there and Grillo has a couple of top 3 finishes), another event similar in stature to this.  The low key nature of things may play into their favour though and it would be a fitting end for 2020 if this ends in a playoff between two players who struggle to close out a win!

Conditions were easy yesterday with soft greens and no wind.  The wind is expected to be down again today but showers and thunderstorms are a possibility.  If play is uninterrupted we could see low scoring again.

Russell Knox has a fantastic record at this event and he would have been in consideration for this pre-event were it not for his awful putting stats at the RSM last time out.  He putted well yesterday but there are doubts over whether he can maintain that for three more rounds.  

Of our pre-event picks, we have four players inside the top 35.  Brendon Todd is our best hope on a score of -6 but the others are still very much in with a shout of the each way places. We're going to see how things play out today and assess the market again ahead of the final round.

4th December 2020

-6 Knox
-5 Niemann
-5 Grillo
-5 Hoge
​-4 Eight players tied

Russell Knox leads by one but it is Tony Finau who takes favouritism at the bookies ahead of Round 2.  Finau is one of the group at 4 under par and is nicely placed with three rounds to go.  Even people who don't bet on golf are aware of Tony's poor win percentage and he's not a price we'd want to take, even if this is the kind of low key event where he's likely to win again.

Russell Knox has a fantastic record at this event and he would have been in consideration for this pre-event were it not for his awful putting stats at the RSM last time out.  He putted well yesterday but there are doubts over whether he can maintain that for three more rounds.  

Of our pre-event picks, four of our six are under par and Brendon Todd in particular is nicely placed at -4.  We have two additional picks going into the 2nd round.

1pt Each Way Nate Lashley (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 66/1 @ 888 Sport
1pt Each Way Rory Sabbatini (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 100/1 @ William Hill

Nate is a value play given he has an early tee time tomorrow and is only two shots off the lead.  He won the Rocket Mortgage Classic last year in convincing fashion so we're happy with his ability when in contention.  He doesn't have a great record in this event but good finishes in similar coastal events gives us cause for optimism. If you can't get on at 888, the 60/1 available at bet365 is still perfectly acceptable.  

Rory isn't always easy to get a win with but favourable each way terms are enough to tempt us in.  It was an interesting day for Rory yesterday as he was four over par with seven holes of his first round remaining but he went on a birdie blitz and managed to post a score of 2 under par.  He only missed two fairways and putted well, a better day with the irons will see him rise up the leaderboard.  He also ticks the recent form and course form boxes given he finished 12th last time out and he has a couple of top 5 finishes at Mayakoba, although admittedly a few years ago now.