Preview
Course Info
Designer: D.A. Weibring
Type of Course: Resort
Used Since: 1971
Fairways: Wide, Bentgrass
Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Fine Fescue
Greens: Large, Bentgrass
Par 5's: 2nd, 10th and 17th
Premium on: Birdies, Putting, GIR
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The event was cancelled in 2020 due to Covid.
We have one of the poorest fields of the year as the stars start to turn their attention towards the Scottish and British Open.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Thursday looks set to be breezy and also the hottest day of the week at 80F. The lead up to the event is all dry and sunny meaning we should see the course play firm, at least until potential thunderstorms on Friday.
Thursday
Mostly Sunny. Wind 16mph.
Friday
Scattered Thunderstorms. Wind 9mph.
Saturday
Partly Cloudy. Wind 7mph.
Sunday
Mostly Sunny. Wind 8mph.
Trends
Winning score
Birdies, birdies and more birdies. Only once since 2014 has the winning score been less than -19 and the highest was -27 by Michael Kim in 2018.
Winning Profile
Glover was ranked 115th in the world while 2019 champion Dylan Frittelli was a maiden PGA Tour winner playing his debut but was ranked 133rd before the start. Michael Kim was 473rd in the world with only a couple of top 10's on tour prior to winning. The previous winners though - DeChambeau, Moore, Spieth, Harman and Stricker - were all established tour players. In general, this is a course where we can see a surprise.
Correlating Courses
Silverado Country Club which hosts the Safeway Open was flagged up as another course Dylan Frittelli and Michael Kim had top 10's on. It also yields low scoring so may be worth checking.
Course form
Glover had a solid course record with previous finishes of 10-25-15. Frittelli was a debutant and Kim had two finishes of 71-47 prior. Steve Stricker famously won three years in a row between 2009-2011. Course form preferred but not mandatory here.
Recent form
Only one winner in the last 11 years arrived in red hot form - Jordan Spieth in 2015. Frittelli arrived with form of 46-46-MC and Kim was on a run of missed cuts. Recent form is not a big factor here.
Nationality
Frittelli was the first non-American winner here since 2010 and still is.
Stats Analysis
We will look at the stats of the last five winners here.
SG: Off The Tee
Glover was 29th, Frittelli was 10th, Kim 34th, DeChambeau 17th and Moore 23rd. A solid driver is preferred.
Driving Distance
93-32-27-21-34. Don't need to be a bomber but hitting it far helps.
Driving Accuracy
41-7-2-32-12. Hitting fairways appears to lead to success here despite the wide targets.
SG: Approach
3-60-11-22-2. Apart from Frittelli, generally important here.
Greens in Regulation
20-10-3-11-1. Very important to hit greens regularly this week.
SG: Around The Green
17-2-47-38-32. Not essential.
SG: Putting
19-2-1-2-8. A hot putter is key to win here.
In Play
Fast or Slow Start
Jordan Spieth was 8 back in 2015 and 6 back in 2013 for his wins, Zach Johnson was 7 back in 2012 and Glover was 5 back last year but generally winners are up with the pace early on. It is possible to play catch up from halfway though, Frittelli and Spieth (twice) were 5 back and Johnson 4 back. Bryson came from 4 back on the final round in 2017 but four of the last seven winners were leading heading into the final round.
Closing stretch
The 16th is an easy-ish 167 yard par 3, 17th is an easy par 5 and 18th is a tough par 4.
In-play
The John Deere Classic In-Play Blog
3 July 2022, 9:05am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Poston |
-19 |
McCarthy |
-16 |
Stallings |
-16 |
Grillo |
-16 |
Tarren |
-15 |
Hoag |
-14 |
Naegel |
-14 |
Round 3 Summary
An eagle at the 17th has given J.T. Poston a three shot lead going into the final round and changed the complexion of the event. Poston had been one over par for his back nine until that point and it looked like he may have had a lead as small as one stroke going to the final round.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"Obviously the first two days I had everything working great. Hitting it great off the tee, irons, and making a lot of putts. And today wasn't as sharp tee to green and didn't putt it as we'll. To be able to still shoot 4-under, which is still very solid today, that gives me some confidence going into tomorrow." J.T. Poston
"I made an equipment change and went back to an old set of irons last week. You know, something that I was very comfortable with. You know, I was telling Amanda that I think all golfers is certifiably insane to an extent because we know something is good, and there is always kind of the double-edged sword of always trying to get a little bit better, but subjecting yourself to -- basically I tried this other set for about a year and went back to it last week and ended up third in approach to the green and I have no idea what I am this week." Scott Stallings
"I mean, contended at the U.S. Open a couple weeks ago and I wasn't thinking about it. I was really calm and comfortable coming down the stretch. I felt like I could win the U.S. Open. I wasn't nervous or scared about any particular shots. I felt really good about them. I think doing that at Memorial and U.S. Open, it just really freed me up, and I've just been playing really committed golf, making some really free swings, which is where I love to be." Denny McCarthy
Round 3 Weather
Sunny with the wind not expected to rise above 10mph. Expect more low scoring.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Poston is a best price of 21/20 to convert but given his ⭐⭐Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating, he's not a player we're looking to back. Disappointing finishes at the Barbasol last year and the 2020 Sanderson Farms Championship are a worry.
Denny McCarthy is 2nd favourite at 11/2 and he made appeal given he's riding the rest of a wave. Recent performances at the US Open and The Memorial have clearly boosted his confidence. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him challenge Poston.
Scott Stallings is 3rd in the betting at 6/1 and he'll be getting our support given we tipped him at the start of the week to subscribers at 33/1. A change of equipment seems to have given him a new impetus and he too is a threat.
Where is the value?
Four of the last seven winners of this event have led going into the final round so those of you who have backed Poston can take encouragement from that. Denny McCarthy and Scott Stallings are considered the most likely challengers to the leader and whilst we considered backing McCarthy at 11/2, we are happy to cheer on Stallings.
Round 4 Bet
- 1.5pts Aaron Baddeley to beat Brendon Todd 15/8 @ Boylesports
Baddeley has outscored Todd in two of the three rounds so far and ranks higher in SG: Tee to Green for the opening three rounds. Todd has been poor apart from a strong 2nd round where he shot 65. Approach play has been a particular weakness for the American this week, ranking 64th SG: Approach. In contrast, Baddeley is 9th in that category, having gained strokes every day. Baddeley's accuracy off the tee is a concern but 15/8 is a price that sufficiently compensates for that risk.
2 July 2022, 11:05am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Poston |
-15 |
McCarthy |
-11 |
Schwab |
-10 |
Gotterup |
-10 |
Grillo |
-10 |
Naegel |
-10 |
Eight players tied |
-9 |
Round 2 Summary
J.T. Poston backed up his opening 62 with a round of 65 and now enjoys a four shot lead going into the weekend.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"Any time you're in contention, whether you've been leading since Thursday or the back nine on Sunday for the first time, any time you get up there are some nerves. There is some pressure. So thankfully I've put myself in that position a few times in my career and I know that I can do it. I've done it in Greensboro before, so just going to try and lean on that going into the weekend." J.T. Poston
" I mean, obviously we still got a long ways to go here, but I do think that like coming out of college I did think my game would translate really well to pro golf. You look at guys that hit it pretty far, and I really improved my wedge game over the last couple years, so if I'm hitting the fairway I got a lot of wedges coming into the greens. So I'm comfortable, and if I'm hitting it good I don't see why I shouldn't play well. Yeah, when I'm hitting it good feels pretty easy, so hopefully just keep hitting it good." Christopher Gotterup
"Yeah, for sure. I knew my game was good. Last week was a little disappointing, but like I said, again, I was exhausted. I needed a few days off on the weekend. Even took Tuesday off. I just needed some time to just relax, save some energy. I knew the game was in a good spot, and I've obviously showed that a little bit here the first few days." Denny McCarthy
Round 3 Weather
Mostly sunny with the wind not expected to rise above 6mph. Expect more low scoring.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
The top two in the betting after round one remain at the front of the market. Poston is now a best price 7/5 after extending his lead.
Poston won the Wyndham Championship in 2019 but has let several good opportunities slip through his grasp in recent years. With low scores expected from the chasing pack, we're not in a rush to take the 7/5.
The even money for him to be top American at Boylesports potentially makes more appeal as it takes out five of the players at nine and ten under. However, we prefer a two ball bet around the even money mark.
Denny McCarthy is into 7/1 and whilst he's clearly full of confidence after his performance at the US Open, we're happy to leave him alone for the time being. He's yet to win on the PGA Tour and with 12 players in the group at nine and ten under, we'd rather consider one of those.
Where is the value?
Poston's lead makes the third round leader market difficult to entertain. Christopher Gotterup made some appeal at 20/1 in the outright market but we've instead opted for a two ball bet.
Round 3 Bet
- 2.5pts Ryan Moore to beat Dylan Frittelli 23/20 @ Bet365
Frittelli scored well in round one but had a poor day yesterday. His stats off the tee and on approach are weak, losing strokes to the field with both. In contrast, Moore has marginally gained strokes in both categories and has the momentum after a good second round. Both players are past champions of this event but Moore has the better record overall and is expected to win this match up at odds against.
1 July 2022, 11:05am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Poston |
-9 |
Gligic |
-7 |
Taylor V |
-6 |
Gotterup |
-6 |
Barnes |
-5 |
Naegel |
-5 |
McCarthy |
-5 |
Frittelli |
-5 |
Ten Players Tied |
-4 |
Round 1 Summary
J.T. Poston set the early target with a 62 and no one was able to catch him. Michael Gligic was the best of the afternoon starters as the wind picked up slightly.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"So I think it's starting to kind of come together and see the results and see the shots and kind of building that confidence back into my ball striking." J.T. Poston
" I just hit it nice. I never really got into trouble. Hit a lot of fairways. Hit I think maybe 17 or 16 greens and just never really got into too much trouble." Michael Gligic
" Been struggling a little bit physically and haven't been putting very well, but coming into here I told myself, you know, I know this course, how to play it, just go do it." Vaughn Taylor
Round 2 Weather
Cloudy and dry for the majority of the day with a possible shower around lunchtime. The max wind for the day is projected at 6mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Poston is clearly in fine form right now but looks very short at around 3/1. He has a 2nd, 3rd and 9th in his last seven starts so would fit the profile Lucas Glover had last year but the value has most certainly passed now. The price is probably so short as many of his closest challengers on the leaderboard have no recent form to show.
Winless Denny McCarthy is next in the betting at 11/1 but is not a price we would entertain. Scott Stallings, our headline 33/1 play to subscribers, is now 4th favourite in the betting and can be expected to grow into this tournament like he did last week.
Where is the value?
The outright market is still all to play for despite Poston's fast start.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Tommy Gainey 400/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-5)
Gainey is perhaps being disrespected in a field of this poor quality. Opened with a solid 68 - the same score Glover opened with last year. He's in a long stretch of missed cuts but that was also the case before his 3rd place finish in Puerto Rico earlier this year and is the type who can occasionally turn it on.
- 0.5pts Each Way Martin Trainer 350/1 @ Unibet/ Bet Rivers (1/5 1-5)
Trainer is one shot better off than Gainey and a must play at this price. Finishes of 11th in Mexico, 7th at Corales and 5th in Houston this season are all examples of Martin coming to life out of nowhere, as he did to win the 2019 Puerto Rico Open. Trainer ranked 12th tee to green yesterday and usually putting is his strength so the signs are positive for a good week.