Preview
Course Info
Tournament played here since: 2014
Type of Course: Classic, tree lined.
Fairways: Tight, tree lined.
Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass, not too penal.
Greens: Small, Narrow, Average Pace, Undulating, Poa-annua.
Water: In-play on 2 holes, 11 and 15.
Par 5's: 5th, 9th, 16th and 18th
Premium on: Strong iron play and scrambling.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
It's the start of a new season on the PGA Tour so some players may be playing with a fresh mindset and many will be well rested having not qualified for the playoff events.
Weather Forecast
Thurs - Partly Cloudy. Wind 11mph.
Fri - Sunny. Wind 11mph.
Sat - Partly Cloudy. Wind 11mph.
Sun - Mostly Sunny. Wind 10mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Homa's winning score last year of -19 has only been beaten by Stewart Cink's winning score of -21 in 2021. The previous five editions were between -14 and -18.
Course Form
Five of the last seven winners had recorded a top 40 finish at this course before they won. Brendan Steele (2017) was the only player to have recorded a top 15 finish prior to winning. Course form isn't essential.
Course Experience
Whilst previous course form might not be essential, course experience has been, six of the last seven winners had played this event before.
Recent Form
Only Emilliano Grillo had posted top 10 finishes in his previous 3 events before winning. Max Homa hadn't finished better than 25th in his last seven starts. Form not essential.
Winner's Profile
Homa was ranked 44th in the world prior to his win and it was his 3rd PGA Tour title. Stewart Cink was ranked 319th but was also an experienced winner. Champ was winning his 2nd title in 2019 whilst Kevin Tway won his maiden title here in 2018.
Links to California
Four of the last six winners had links to California, whether that be place of birth, college or residence.
Stats Analysis
Driving Distance
Two of the last eight winners were 1st for driving distance but Homa was only 41st last year. Distance can be an advantage here.
Driving Accuracy
Three of the last eight winners were top 10 for driving accuracy and Homa ranked 15th last year. It is slightly preferred over distance.
Greens in Regulation
All eight winners were in the top 30 for GIR and Cink was 1st in 2021. It's of strong importance to hit the greens here.
Scrambling
Max Homa only ranked 74th last year but the three prior winners were 1st or 2nd for scrambling and all of the seven prior winners have been in the top 10.
Putting
Two of the last eight winners have been in top 10 for putts per GIR including Homa who was 2nd last year.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 2nd and 13th played as the two hardest holes in 2021.
Birdie Holes
16-18 is an easy stretch. 5th and 9th are reachable par 5's.
Fast or Slow Start
It is possible to win from off the pace. In 2021, Homa was three back and Cink was two back heading into the final round in 2020. Cameron Champ led by three after round 3 in 2019 en route to victory, but the 5 previous winners all began round 3 at least 2 behind. Homa was 7 shots back at halfway last year, Steele was 9 back after 36 holes in 2016 and Grillo was 6 back after 36 holes in 2015. Fast starts are not essential.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Hideki Matsuyama 18/1
Could be a price we look back on and regret passing up. Finished 6th here last year when not in great form and was 9th in 72 hole scoring last time out at the Tour Championship. Injury concerns and next week's President's Cup are the only factors putting us off.
Doc Redman 100/1
Former US Amateur winner at Riviera who has a 3rd place finish at this event. Finished 10th on his last start on the Korn Ferry Tour. One to support when in form but 100/1 was just too short to provide any value.
Beau Hossler 150/1
Consecutive top 25 finishes in this event and a California native, he ticks a lot of boxes. However, an inconsistent player who may be better backed after the opening round.
Will Gordon 150/1
A player we rate very highly, recent form on the Korn Ferry Tour reads 5-5-1-46-26. Has played this event once before so should hit the ground running.
In-play
Fortinet Championship In-Play Blog
17 September 2022, 6.50am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Lower |
-13 |
| Homa |
-12 |
| Willett |
-12 |
| An |
-11 |
| 4 Players Tied |
-10 |
Round 3 Summary
A birdie at his final hole was enough to give Justin Lower a one shot lead going into the final round of the Fortinet Championship. Firm conditions and a tricky breeze kept scoring moderate and nobody bettered 65.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"I'm from southern California, I don't know why I play well in the rain, but I do. So I'm just going to try and do that again tomorrow." Max Homa
"Everyone would probably think I'm pretty good. We're all right. We play the Dunhill most years in average weather. Yeah, this golf course with a bit of rain, soften it up a little bit might actually help it, so we'll see." Danny Willett
"I think with the weather tomorrow it should soften up the greens a little bit, but I think they're so baked out already that they'll kind of just skip for a bit. It will be fun tomorrow, I love bad conditions." Sahith Theegala
Round 4 Weather
Rain throughout the day with the wind set to blow around 10-13mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Max Homa is a best price 23/10. The defending champion has played solidly tee to green (10th SG: Tee to Green) and will relish the forecasted weather conditions for the final round. Homa won the Wells Fargo in May, with much of the tournament being played in wet conditions. He remains the man to beat.
Justin Lower is next in the betting at 7/2. The 33 year old American has never won an event on the Korn Ferry Tour or PGA Tour and it would be a shock if he were to convert his lead. He led the BMW Charity Pro-Am after three rounds on the Korn Ferry Tour last June and shot the second worst score of anyone in the top 20 in the final round. He's not for us.
Danny Willett should relish the wet and breezy conditions in the final round and it was a surprise to see him chalked up at 11/2. Willett described himself as "all right" in difficult conditions in yesterday's post round interview and he would be favoured ahead of Lower.
Where is the value?
Stewart Cink (7th) is the only player to come from further back than 3rd position after 54 holes in the last five years. However, with tricky weather conditions forecast for the final round, looking further down the leaderboard is no bad thing and the players at nine and ten under par were our focus.
Round 4 Bet
- 1.5pts Each Way Adam Svensson 22/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-3)
Svensson ranks 7th this week in SG: Tee to Green and is nicely placed at ten under par going into the final round. A three time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, all his wins have come from off the pace (he's trailed by one shot, two shots and four shots for his three wins) and he's no stranger to coming from a few shots back. He has experience of being in contention the past year on the PGA Tour and he's now ready to win at this level. Finally, the rain shouldn't be an issue for the Canadian given he is quoted in the past as saying, “I’m from Vancouver. I grew up playing in the rain, so I don’t think it will be that big of a deal to me.”
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17 September 2022, 13:30pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Willett |
-12 |
| Homa |
-12 |
| Lower |
-10 |
| An |
-10 |
| 3 Players Tied |
-8 |
Round 2 Summary
Danny Willett was the star of the show yesterday with a second round 64 to join Max Homa in the lead at 12 under par. Round one leader Justin Lower could only manage a 71 and is two back from the leaders, alongside Byeong Hun An who is on his comeback to the PGA Tour.
Round 3 Weather
Still conditions in the morning before the wind picks up to 16mph late afternoon. Dry and sunny all day.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
We mentioned in the blog yesterday that we were hesitant to take on Homa and he could have been out of sight having played his last eight holes in level par yesterday. The same applies today and we expect him to keep the foot down.
Danny Willett has had a quiet year with just two top 10's which have come in his last five starts and he will take heart that he knows he can beat the best on his day, famously defeating Jon Rahm at 2019 BMW PGA championship. Whether he can maintain yesterday's brilliance will be the question but our gut feeling is that he will keep pace with Homa.
Where is the value?
We said in our 'Fore the Win' podcast with Bet Rivers at the start of the tournament that there have been plenty of large comebacks in this event. Homa was 7 shots back at halfway last year, Steele was 9 back after 36 holes in 2016 and Grillo was 6 back after 36 holes in 2015. So although we rate the leaders in contention, it may be worth chancing a couple of longshots.
Round 3 Bet
- 0.5pts Win Only James Hahn 250/1 @ Skybet
- 0.5pts Win Only Adam Svensson 200/1 @ Skybet
- 0.5pts Win Only Matti Schmid 250/1 @ Skybet
- 0.5pts Win Only Will Gordon 300/1 @ Skybet
With the place terms not favourable (3 places), we're happy to take a spread of four players at big prices within seven of the lead who are all capable of going low. The weather forecast suggests the conditions will get tougher as the day goes on and this could make the leaders more vulnerable than usual.
- 2pts Emilliano Grillo to beat Taylor Montgomery 21/20 @ Bet365
We were surprised not to see Grillo odds on here to beat the talented graduate, Montgomery. Grillo is a past champion and appears to be playing the more solid golf of the two - Montgomory ranks 1st for putting this week so much of his score has been built on the greens.
16 September 2022, 10:45am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Lower |
-9 |
| Homa |
-7 |
| Kim SH |
-6 |
| An |
-6 |
| Spaun |
-6 |
| 9 Players Tied |
-5 |
Round 1 Summary
A fog delay in the morning meant round one was unable to be finished with 35 players still out on course. World number 342 Justin Lower blitzed his way past the morning starters with a bogey free 63. Defending champion Max Homa is alone in 2nd after birdies on two of his last three holes.
Round 2 Weather
Still conditions in the morning before the wind picks up to 11mph late afternoon. Dry and sunny all day.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Max Homa has to be respected at 7/2 - three wins since the beginning of 2021 shows he has no problem getting the job done and Brenden Steele has already shown here that it's possible to defend successfully. Homa was also two back after round one last year, he is clearly on top of his game after shooting the 3rd best 72-hole score at the Tour Championship and would be no surprise to see him leading at halfway.
Leader Justin Lower is next favourite in the betting at 10/1 to do something he has never won before - win a professional event. Three runners up finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour show he is no mug though and he could easily better his best ever finish of 8th on the PGA Tour this week.
Where is the value?
With the first round yet to be completed, there are no 2nd round leader or 3-ball odds available. In recent years, we have saw many big comebacks at the halfway stage so we will keep our powder dry for tomorrow.
Round 2 Bet
