Charles Schwab Challenge 2022

Event Info

Starts: 26th May 2022
Course: Colonial CC
Par: 70
Length: 7,209 yards
2021 Champion: Jason Kokrak

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Bredemus & Maxwell
Used Since: 1946
Fairways: Bermudagrass
Rough: Bermudagrass.
Greens: Small, Bentgrass.
Water Hazards: In-play on 6 holes.
Par 5's: 1st and 11th
Premium on: Approach play and Putting

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Players who were in contention at last week's PGA Championship may experience a hangover from that event.

Weather

It looks set to be a dry week with the wind expected to blow over the weekend.

Thursday
Sunny, max winds 9mph.
Friday
Sunny, max winds 16mph.
Saturday
Sunny, max winds 21mph.
Sunday
Partly sunny, max winds 22mph.

Trends

Winning Score
Winning scores in the last eleven years have ranged from -10 to -20. The past three years the score has been between -13 and -15.

Course Form
The event tends to favour players who have experience of playing the course before. In the last 22 years, 18 of the winners have recorded a top 14 finish here at Colonial prior to their win. Indeed, 17 of those 18 winners had recorded a top 10 finish at Colonial prior to donning the winner's plaid jacket. It is also significant to note that in the last eleven editions of this tournament, eight of the winners recorded a top 14 finish in the year prior to winning. Previous form here counts for a lot.

Colonial isn't a course that favours debutants given there has only been one player in the past 22 years who has won on his debut - Sergio Garcia in 2001.

Recent Form
Last year's winner, Jason Kokrak, was 49th the week before but was 13th in his last start before that. The 2020 event was the first event after the hiatus for Covid-19 so Daniel Berger had no recent form to analyse. The champions of 2019 and 2017, Kevin Na and Kevin Kisner, had shown little form in the weeks preceding their win so it is possible to find something at Colonial.

World Ranking
Last year's winner, Jason Kokrak, was 35th coming into the event. Prior to that the winners ranked 106-52-5-43-2-23-2-111. This isn't an event where we usually see shock winners.

Nationality
Sixteen of the past nineteen champions have been American.

Stats Analysis

SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 1-53-21-4-47. It's not essential to be dominant off the tee.

Driving Accuracy
The last six winners have ranked 5-33-28-9-1-82. Accuracy off the tee is marginally preferred to distance. That shouldn't come as a surprise given this was the course Annika Sorenstam chose to compete with the men when appearing as the first female professional on the PGA Tour in 2003.

Driving Distance
The last six winners have ranked 1-44-82-23-64-23. Jason Kokrak topped the stats last year but distance off the tee definitely isn't required this week.

SG: Approach
The last five winners have ranked 8-11-1-1-25. Approach play is crucial at Colonial Country Club.

Greens In Regulation
The last six winners have ranked 2-5-1-1-2-25. Hitting the small greens this week is a definite advantage.

SG: Around The Green
The last five winners have ranked 61-48-79-28-3.

Scrambling
The last four winners have ranked 49-37-17-30.

SG: Putting
The last six winners have ranked 7-12-2-25-5-2. A good week with the putter is needed.

In Play

Tough Holes
After a gentle start at the opening two holes, players then face the ‘Horrible Horseshoe,’ two difficult par 4s and a 250+ yard par 3. These three holes (3rd - 5th) ranked the three toughest in 2020, averaging a collective 0.51 shots over par.

Birdie Holes
The 1st and 2nd holes are traditionally the easiest holes on the course.

Closing Stretch
17 and 18 offer birdie opportunities, both played under par last year and have done so regularly in recent times.

Fast or Slow Start
Four of the last five winners have been inside the top 10 after the opening round. It is vital to be up with the leaders at halfway given that four of the last five winners have been inside the top two after 36 holes.

In-play

Charles Schwab Challenge In-Play Blog

29 May 2022, 10:05am (UK time)

Player	Total
Scheffler	-11
Stallings	-9
Todd	-9
Varner	-8
Huh	-7
Kirk	-7
Reed	-7
Davis	-7

Round 3 Summary

Scottie Scheffler handled the conditions the best out of the leading groups and was in control for most of the round. A bogey out of nowhere on 17 looked to have brought the chasing pack closer but he finished with a 30ft birdie putt to regain his two shot lead. Brendon Todd had the round of he day with a 65 and sits in 2nd place with Scott Stallings.

Notable Round 3 Quotes

"It was really tough out there. I don't know if you were out there on the golf course, but the winds were up really high. The greens were actually pretty firm, and so it was challenging." Scottie Scheffler

"When I won the Byron Nelson in 2014 it was hot and firm and windy, and that seems to be my favorite conditions. Hopefully we get more of it tomorrow. I generally feel like a little bit of wind helps me shape shots into the greens and not put pressure on myself to feel like I have to birdie every hole." Brendon Todd

Round 4 Weather

Even windier than yesterday with winds due to reach 21mph in the afternoon. It will remain hot in the mid 90's.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Scheffler handled the wind admirably yesterday and he made it look easy for large parts of the day. He appears to have a strategy for the course, not playing too aggressive if he doesn't need to and will be hard to catch if he can stick to the game plan. He will have his backers at 8/11 today but with three excellent wind players right behind him it appears short. Scheffler has only played the first two holes in two under par this week and he may be a bigger price after another slow start.

Brendon Todd has to be regarded as his biggest danger after his superb 65. Odds of 8/1 are most appealing from the chasing group, Todd won at a windy Bermuda Championship in 2019 with a final round 62 and won from the front a week later at Mayakoba.

Scott Stallings bounced back well yesterday after a shaky start and he has also got to be considered a threat to Scheffler. He finished with a remarkable 62 in blowy conditions at last years Bermuda which was the round of the day by three shots. He may well go better today with the pressure off but 10/1 looks about fair.

Harold Varner is around about the same price as Stallings but one shot further back. He showed his ability in the wind winning in Saudi earlier this year but for someone who is still searching for their first PGA Tour win, he looks to have a big task ahead of him.

Where is the value?

Scheffler's game plan looks solid and we expect him to win now so it may be time to turn our attention to a different market.

Round 4 Bets

No bet

Scheffler is expected to win and we don't see any standout value in other markets. We considered Kurt Kitayama, Adam Svensson and Sahith Theegala in the top 20 market but weren't strong enough on any of them to play them. We have Patrick Reed pre-event and we'll cheer him on in the event of a Scheffler slip up.

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

28 May 2022, 10:35am (UK time)

Player	Total
Hossler	-9
Stallings	-9
Scheffler	-9
Reed	-8
Perez	-7
Kirk	-7
Seven Players Tied	-6

Round 2 Summary

Easier conditions saw a couple of 64's posted and the top of the leaderboard now has a more spread feel to it. Market favourite Scottie Scheffler maintained his share of the lead and is the man to beat.

Notable Round 2 Quotes

"I may not have hit way more fairways than I did yesterday, but today I drove the ball 10 times better than I did yesterday....The greens, actually for Colonial having bentgrass, they're pretty firm for the summertime here, and with the way the winds are going to blow, it's going to be a very challenging day." Scottie Scheffler

"I feel like I have a little bit more control on knowing how the ball is going to react, whether it's a full swing or taking off some speed, and I think that's going to be crucial this weekend, especially if the wind is supposed to blow." Patrick Reed

"Today my 4-under today is probably equivalent to my 1-under yesterday. I hit it worse today and just made some more putts....I feel good about tackling this place in some tough conditions. I think I can shoot 5-under on the weekend, and I think you're looking at that being -- with what's forecasted, something around what you need." Jordan Spieth

"Yeah, it's just part of playing out here. You're used to that strong south wind. Even yesterday was gusty kind of off and on, but blowing out of a different direction than we typically see. So I think this weekend will be back a little bit more what we're used to seeing here at Colonial." Chris Kirk

Round 3 Weather

The wind is set to return with a southwest wind of 18mph and hot temperatures in the 90's. It's likely we will see tougher scoring than the first couple of days.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Without any wind forecast this weekend, favourite Scottie Scheffler would be a hard man to oppose but those conditions can always throw a spanner in the works and our position remains the same as yesterday - he is most likely to win but not for us at 15/8. Second favourite Patrick Reed was tipped up to our subscribers at 80/1 and is talking a really good game, feeling like his game is coming back to the level we expect from him. He should enjoy the tougher conditions and we expect him to hang around.

Joint leaders Scott Stallings and Beau Hossler are both capable wind players but the value is gone on them at 10's, the same could be said of Chris Kirk at 12. Hovland and Spieth are within our of the lead and available at around 12/1, we were really hoping to see a bigger price on Spieth this morning but the fact he is still his starting price four back of Scheffler is enough to put us off, it's hard not to imagine him climbing the leaderboard though.

Where is the value?

With the wind in play all weekend, we're keen to back a couple of players we trust in these conditions.

Round 3 Bets

1pt Each Way Webb Simpson 33/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)

We mentioned on Friday's blog we wanted to get Simpson onside for the weekend but felt he would be bigger than 12's this morning. We got our wish with him playing the last three holes in two over par to push his price out to 33's. He is still only four back and always one who is best supported in tough conditions. Last week he hinted that he's close to performing to the level he's capable of and we've seen nothing to say otherwise yet.

0.5pts Each Way Matt Jones 150/1 @ Bet Rivers/Unibet (1/5 1-4)

It's likely we will see someone make a move from the pack at 4 under today and Matt Jones rates the best option in our opinion. He's on the record saying windy conditions suit him best, already finished 2nd in Texas earlier this season and 3rd at a windy Hawaii. A winner on tour last year at Honda, he could make this price look very silly if he brings his best stuff over the weekend.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

27 May 2022, 10:15am (UK time)

Player	Total
Reed	-4
Simpson	-4
Scheffler	-4
Varner	-4
Taylor	-4
Davis	-4
Hossler	-4
Kirk	-4
Seven Players Tied	-3

Round 1 Summary

We have a log jam at the top at 4 under par. Several players got to -5 but then fell backwards with the wind causing enough trouble to keep the scoring down.

Notable Round 1 Quotes

"I love when Colonial gets blowing a little bit like this..." Webb Simpson

"Honestly, I feel like the game is where it needs to be, I just need the ball to go in the hole a little quicker.." Patrick Reed

"Fall a little behind, puts a little bit of pressure on tomorrow before the wind comes in on the weekend to certainly move up the board. You want to hang around when you're going to get these 20- and 30-mile-an-hour winds on the weekend. I think tomorrow with the wind being really low in the morning, I'm looking to take advantage of the golf course." Jordan Spieth

Round 2 Weather

As Spieth refers to above, we are set for almost perfect conditions today with the wind barely a factor. High winds over the weekend should keep the players honest.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Understandably, joint leader and world number one Scottie Scheffler is 5/1 favourite. He showed signs of getting back on track yesterday but with the weekend winds to come it is not a price we will be entertaining. Jordan Spieth will be expected to make his move from three back but he has remained his starting price of 14/1 and we don't see much value there. Out of the favourites, Webb Simpson is someone we would be looking to get onside, but we're hoping to see a bigger price on him tomorrow morning before the tougher conditions.

Where is the value?

The outright market is wide open and with the forecast over the weekend, a couple of speculative plays at big odds seems like the way to go.

Round 2 Bets

0.5pts Each Way Camilo Villegas 175/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)

Camillo is a fine wind player which will serve him well this weekend. He played some really tidy stuff yesterday, ranking 7th off the tee, 8th for approach and 1st GIR, hitting 15/18 greens. Only one shot back, this four time PGA Tour winner could find his class in a tough event.

0.5pts Each Way Charlie Hoffman 150/1 @ Bet Rivers/Unibet (1/5 1-5)

Let's take a chance on another class act who is completely out of form. Charlie has only made two cuts this year but his record in Texas makes him worthy of a small investment - 3rd here at Charles Schwab last year and 2nd at the Texas Open a few weeks earlier. If Charlie can hang in there today we like him to go well over the weekend.

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