Cadence Bank Houston Open 2022

Preview

Event Info

Starts: 10th November 2022
Course: Memorial Park Golf Club, Texas
Par: 70
Length: 7,412 yards
2021 Champion: Jason Kokrak

Course Info

Course Designer: John Bredemus 1935, with Tom Doak renovation 2019.
Tournament played here since: 2020
Type of Course: Parkland
Fairways: Wide, tree lined.
Greens: Large, Bermuda, tight grass slopes and contours waiting should you miss the greens.
Par 5's: 3rd, 8th and 16th
Water Hazards: In play on four holes.
Premium on: Putting

Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Scottie Scheffler can reclaim number one spot in the world with a win this week.
This is the 3rd time Memorial Park has hosted the event.

Trends

Winning Score
Jason Kokrak won with a score of -10 last year whilst Carlos Ortiz won with a score of -13 in 2020.

Course Form
In the two events at Memorial Park GC, only Sam Burns has posted back to back top 10 finishes.

Recent Form
Kokrak was 54th in his last start before winning last year.. The runner-up, Kevin Tway, was 58th whilst fellow runner-up Scottie Scheffler was 4th. In 2020, Ortiz finished 35th in his last start prior to his win. However, that came at the 78 man ZOZO Championship which had no cut. Everyone in the top six had recorded a top 40 finish in their last start.

World Ranking
Kokrak was 35th whilst Ortiz was 159th when he won 2020.

Weather

Temperatures will be warm to begin the week but are forecast to drop significantly over the weekend with some possible rain on Saturday.

Thursday
Cloudy with wind peaking at 8mph.

Friday
Cloudy with wind peaking at 11mph.

Saturday
Showers with wind peaking at 13mph.

Sunday
Cloudy with wind peaking at 10mph.

Stats Analysis

SG: Off The Tee
Kokrak ranked 14th. The top 6 in 2020 ranked 47-15-2-50-10-110 in this category. Not essential to drive the ball brilliantly this week.

Driving Distance
Kokrak ranked 36th. The top 6 in 2020 ranked 26-71-4-37-14-78 in this category.

Driving Accuracy
Kokrak ranked 20th. The top 6 in 2020 ranked 76-9-19-73-62-108 in this category. Accuracy off the tee is not essential.

SG: Approach
Kokrak ranked 2nd. The top 6 in 2020 ranked 21-23-24-32-83-2 in this category. Strong iron play is preferred to strong driving.

Greens In Regulation
Kokrak ranked 4th. The top 6 in 2020 ranked 9-16-1-72-34-9 in this category.

SG: Around The Green
Kokrak ranked 67th. The top 6 in 2020 ranked 3-18-38-17-37-75 in this category. Not a key stat for victory this week.

SG: Putting
Kokrak ranked 3rd. The top 6 in 2020 ranked 5-11-20-8-2-4 in this category. A hot putter is essential.

Par 3 Performance
In 2020, four of the top 6 ranked 7th or better for Par 3 Performance. Memorial Park has five par 3s and we shouldn't underestimate the importance of a strong week on the short holes.

In Play

Fast or Slow Start
Last year, Kokrak was NINE shots back at halfway and two back after 54 holes. 54 hole leader Scottie Scheffler was SEVEN behind after round one.

In 2020, Ortiz was 2nd after the first round. Three of the eventual top 6 were inside the top 8 after the opening round.

Tough Holes
The 14th, 1st and 8th holes play as the hardest holes.

Easy Holes
The par 5s on the front nine (3rd and 8th) played under par but note the par 5 on the back nine (16th) has played over par. Aside from the par 5s, the par 3 2nd hole usually plays easy.

Quotes

"My caddie went around the front nine, he said the greens are real undulated and very firm. When you put in new bermuda, it's extremely firm and I'm assuming that's what the greens on the course are going to be like because the course is pretty much brand new. So I think it will be challenging hitting approach shots into these greens just the way they'll be bouncing and it should be a fun, exciting week." Scottie Scheffler - November 2020

"You can get into some spots where you start playing ping pong across these greens, it's brutal. Fairways and greens is definitely at a premium this week." Scottie Scheffler - November 2020

"I would say the grass is somewhat similar to the Golf Club of Houston, but the golf course is very, very different. It's a tough golf course to learn in a week. It's got a lot of undulating -- a lot of movement around the greens." Lanto Griffin - November 2020

"The golf course is good. It's a big golf course, it's long, so I mean, I think -- and you've got to be on your game. The greens got a lot of slope and undulation in them, so you've got to hit it in the right spots if you want to have any kind of look at birdie. If you miss greens, you're going to have a really tough time making pars, especially if you're in the wrong spot. So yeah, I mean, the golf course, I think it's going to play fairly difficult. It's a long golf course, you hit a lot of mid to long irons. You don't get many wedges in your hand out here." Dustin Johnson - November 2020

"I think it's the firmness of the greens more than anything else. It's very long. There were a few tees were put forward that made it a little more manageable than it was during the practice rounds; you're playing every tee right at the back. And there's a lot of holes out there from the very back tees and it becomes a very long course. So I think it's already quite long, but it's more the firmness of the greens. If you're not in the fairway, you can't really hold them, so driving becomes very important. You go drive it down there a long way so you can spin it. It's just the ability to get the ball near the hole, and the penalty for just missing on the wrong side becomes really big because the ball just rolls away. It's been a while since I've played a course on Tour that's really done that and it's great, it reminds me a lot of back in Australia." Cameron Davis - November 2020

"It's a tricky golf course, no question. It's got length, you've got to hit it in the fairway here to score and I actually scored it quite nice. I don't feel like I hit it great, but was able to get up and down when I needed to and still turn in an under-par round." Tony Finau - November 2020

In-play

Cadence Bank Houston Open In-Play Blog

13th November 2022, 10:15pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Finau	-15
Taylor	-11
Rose	-8
Clark	-8
Alexander	-8

Round 3 Summary

Tony Finau maintained his four shot lead after a competent round in tougher conditions. He has a new closest challenger after Ben Taylor's 65 put him in sole 2nd place.

Round 4 Weather

Cold and sunny with the wind peaking at 10mph mid morning.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Finau is now 2/13 to convert and it should be a comfortable victory if he continues his standard of play. Finau hit every fairway yesterday and only missed a couple of greens. He said post round it's as good as he's ever drove the ball which is bad news for the chasers.

Finau's Sunday fortunes have completely changed of late and he has a 5 star pressure performance rating. In his last five rounds near the front of the leaderboard, he has shot 67-67-64-65-64 which included three wins (two in his last five starts).

Benjamin Taylor has never finished better than 20th on the PGA Tour and hasn't won on any tour since 2018. It's a massive ask for him to hunt down Finau and he will likely be happy with his third 2nd place finish since May.

Seven shots back, Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark and Tyson Alexander likely have too much to do.

Where is the value?

No obvious value standing out.

Round 3 Bets

No bet

We're happy to sit the rest of this event out with Finau expected to comfortably win.

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

12th November 2022, 4:05pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Finau	-13
Rodgers	-9
Noren	-9
Alexander	-8
Three Players Tied	-7

Round 2 Summary

Many of the Friday afternoon starters were unable to complete their second round yesterday and came back on Saturday morning to finish. Tony Finau, playing in the morning, fired a sublime 62 to open up a four shot lead at the top at halfway.

Round 3 Weather

Sunny with 15mph wind.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Tony Finau is 8/11 to win for the 5th time on the PGA Tour. It's hard to build a case against him given he ranks 2nd for SG: Tee to Green through the first two rounds. However, we should be mindful that neither of the two halfway leaders at Memorial Park have gone on to win (admittedly none had a four shot lead though).

Alex Noren and Patrick Rodgers are next in the betting at 8/1 and 9/1. Both players have had their troubles on a Sunday of late but it may well suit them to come from off the pace. They rank 3rd and 4th for SG: Tee to Green through rounds one and two.

Where is the value?

Carl Yuan made appeal at 50/1. His Korn Ferry Tour win in March came when trailing by five shots after three rounds so he's a player who can chase down a leader.

Round 3 Bets

No bet

We're content to let the 3rd round play out and re-assess the situation tomorrow.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

11th November 2022, 10:35am (UK time)

Player	Total
Finau	-5
Wise	-5
Noren	-5
Alexander (through 17)	-5
Eight Players Tied	-4

Round 1 Summary

We have four players tied for the lead including market favourites Tony Finau and Aaron Wise. Sam Burns has played his way out of the tournament and Scottie Scheffler has his work cut out, five shots back. There are a handful of players still to finish their first round.

Round 2 Weather

Cloudy in the early morning with possible showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wind to peak at around 8mph in the afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Tony Finau heads the market due to a hot day on the greens yesterday and he is nicely poised to take control of this tournament with a nice early start today. He is yet to better 24th place in six visits to Houston so we would be wary of taking that price so early.

Aaron Wise is next in the betting at 5/1 and unbelievably he appeared a touch downbeat after his 65. A previous winner in Texas, he should be respected but the price is incredibly short.

Where is the value?

Although Finau is undoubtedly a big threat, it isn't a prolific leaderboard and there is still each way value available.

Round 2 Bets

0.5pts Each Way Scott Piercy 125/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)

Piercy has started nicely, two back of the leaders with a nice morning tee time. He was 5th for approach play yesterday and his tee to green stats have been strong here last two years when finishing 19th and 32nd. He should have really won the 3M open last year when he held a big lead but coming from off the pace should suit him better this week.

0.5pts Each Way Max McGreevy 200/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)

We also considered Tyson Alexander here who is a two time winner in Texas on the KFT but Max gets the nod at a much bigger price. He was 18th here last year when out of form and went on to post a 2nd in Puerto Rico and 5th at Wyndham. Finished 8th in Bermuda a few weeks ago, very much a boom or bust type player but worth chancing at these odds.

0.5pts Each Way Danny Lee 400/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)

Lee is four back and is being massively disrespected given his Texas ties and ball striking performance yesterday. Lee ranked 1st for approach and 2nd tee to green. He finished 2nd in Bermuda and 7th at Mayakoba this time last year so he is one to keep an eye on at the end of the year, especially when we see an improvement in his ball striking.

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