Bermuda Championship 2022

Preview

Event Info

Starts: 27th October 2022
Course: Port Royal Golf Course, Bermuda
Par: 71
Length: 6,828 yards
2021 Champion: Lucas Herbert

Course Info

Designer: Robert Trent Jones
Used since: 2019
Course Type: Short, coastal track exposed to the wind. Very hilly.
Fairways: Very tight off the tee, the field average for fairways hit was only 54% in 2019.
Rough: Bermuda rough only two inches long, but enough to make approach shots difficult.
Greens: Smaller than average TifEagle Bermuda greens running 10.5 on Stimpmeter on account of the wind.
Par 5's: 2nd, 7th and 17th
Water Hazards: In play on five of the holes.
Premium on: Putting and Scrambling

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

The weather! Caution is advised this week due to the weather forecast below. There will be some good in-play opportunities as a result.
This is a great opportunity for players seeking their first win or that haven't won for a while.

Weather

Temperatures should be in the mid 70's with thunderstorms expected all week. Sunday looks set to be the windiest day with winds of up to 17mph in the afternoon.

Thursday
Thunderstorms, max winds approx. 10mph.
Friday
Thunderstorms, max winds approx. 14mph.
Saturday
Scattered Thunderstorms, max winds approx. 14mph.
Sunday
AM Thunderstorms, max winds approx. 17mph.

Trends

Winning Score
Todd won in 2019 with -24 but that was in much calmer conditions. The last two winners - Lucas Herbert and Brian Gay won with -15 in heavier winds so we should expect a winning score close to -15.

Course Form
Gay was 3rd here in 2019 before his win but runner up Clark was a debutant, as was last years winner Lucas Herbert. It's preferred over recent form at this unique track.

Recent Form
Todd won in 2019 on the back of a 28th place finish at the Houston Open but had missed several cuts before that. In 2020, Gay arrived following four missed cuts and last year Hebert had also missed his previous two cuts. Form is not essential here.

Winning Profile
Herbert was ranked 57th in the world and had won earlier that year in Ireland. Gay was ranked 318th before his win but it was his 5th PGA Tour title. Todd was ranked 522nd and was his second PGA Tour title.

Stats Analysis

Driving Accuracy
Rankings for both course winners were 4-4-81. Hitting the small fairways is usually key.

Driving Distance
Rankings for both course winners were 38-51-7. No major advantage with length.

Greens In Regulation
Rankings for both course winners were 15-10-75. As always hitting greens helps although Lucas Herbert ranked low.

Scrambling
Rankings for both course winners were 16-4-4. An important stat to win.

Putts Per GIR
Rankings for both course winners were 6-3-14. Only three top-10 finishers in 2021 were outside the top 15 in putts per round.

In Play

Tough Holes: The par 3s will go a long way to determining the winner. Holes 13 and 16 can play in excess of 230 yards and the eighth is 210 yards.

Birdie Holes: The 7th hole (par 5) is a must-birdie hole.

Fast or Slow Start: Herbert was 5 shots back after round one last year and Gay was six back after round one in 2020. Herbert and Gay were both four back at halfway. Todd shot an opening 68 and trailed first round leader, Scottie Scheffler, by 6. He was still behind with 18 holes to go, before overcoming a two shot deficit. It is possible to play catch up here.

In-play

Butterfield Bermuda Championship In-Play Blog

30th October 2022, 11:55am (UK time)

Player	Total
Power	-18
Griffin	-18
Baddeley	-16
Yu	-16
Gay	-15

Round 3 Summary

Seamus Power and Ben Griffin handled the conditions the best and share the lead on 18 under par.

Round 4 Weather

Consistent winds of 19mph today should test the leaders under pressure.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Seamus Power is the worthy 6/4 favourite which is painful to type after fancying his chances all the way through but refusing to pull the trigger at 20/1 and 8/1 due to the nature of this event. Hopefully some of you who watched the podcast had more faith than us! Power has the most recent winning experience having clinched the Barbosol Championship in 2021 however he is yet to lead after 54 holes on tour so this is will be a different test for him. His score has been heavily built with the putter so whether he can continue that is another question.

If it is a new position for Power, it is going to feel far stranger for Ben Griffin who's yet to experience a Korn ferry Tour victory never mind a PGA Tour one. He led once on the KFT, finishing 2nd in the end and we couldn't confidently back him at 3/1.

Where is the value?

We have the leaders surrounded from our pre-event tips to subscribers. We put up Kevin Yu at 90's, Aaron Baddeley at 200's and Brian Gay at 160's who all sit in the top five. This event has a great history of winners from off the pace so we have every right to be optimistic of a superb week. There is no need for anymore involvement.

Round 4 Bets

No Bets

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

29th October 2022, 10:55am (UK time)

Player	Total
Crane	-14
Smotherman	-13
Schenk	-13
Griffin	-13
Baddeley	-13
Shelton	-13
Five Players Tied	-12

Round 2 Summary

As expected, the morning starters got the best of the conditions yesterday and only Austin Smotherman and Dylan Wu are in the top 10 from the early-late group. Ben Crane rolled back the years and leads by one as he bids to win his first event since 2014.

Round 3 Weather

We look set for a windier weekend with consistent winds of 16mph today.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Robby Shelton is slight favourite at 7/1. We said yesterday he was a bigger threat to McCarthy at the head of the market and so it has proved. He is yet to play the course in high winds though so we are happy to leave for now.

Adam Schenk is next in the betting at 8/1 and leads the field for driving distance this week, but he is still looking for his first PGA Tour title and that puts us off single figures. Seamus Power is also 8/1 and he will feel like a missed opportunity if he goes onto win. We highlighted his form at coastal tracks on our 'Fore the Win' podcast with Bet Rivers and he was the class act of the field.

Where is the value?

Gay and Herbert were both four back at halfway and with the wind arriving for the weekend, it looks perfectly set up for something similar this year. We will continue to cover the value Each Way plays.

Round 3 Bets

1pt Each Way Dylan Wu 40/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-4)

Dylan has played in the harder of the conditions and is only two behind Crane. He leads the field for greens in regulation and is 4th for driving accuracy, whilst hitting the ball an average of 313 yards. He is yet to win on the PGA Tour but a winner on the KFT and plenty of form in the Bahamas, meaning he should be capable in the wind.

0.5pts Each Way Ben Martin 150/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-4)

Martin is five back of Crane and is another looking for a comeback win, having last won in 2014 at Shriners. He wasn't far off last year though, finishing 2nd at Corales and showed a lot of strong form towards the end of last season. Another hitting plenty of fairways and greens that looks overpriced.

0.5pts Each Way CT Pan 150/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-4)

We liked Pan pre-event but lack of recent form put us off slightly. However, he is hitting lots of fairways and greens and his accuracy should be rewarded as conditions toughen. A winner already at Hilton Head, he has more recent contention experience than most at the top of this leaderboard.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

28th October 2022, 9:45am (UK time)

Player	Total
Smotherman	-9
Endycott	-9
Atwal	-8
McCarthy	-8
Schenk	-8
Shelton	-8
Brown	-8

Round 1 Summary

The calmest conditions you are ever likely to see at Port Royal made yesterday a birdie-fest and as a result 53 players are within four of the lead.

Round 2 Weather

Cloudy in the early morning with a wind of around 7mph. Scattered Thunderstorms from 10am onwards with the wind picking up to 13mph at lunchtime.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Denny McCarthy is 15/2 favourite and sits one back of the leaders. He has a nice early tee time and a strong record at the course so it is likely he kicks on from here but we could not be taking that price on a man who has struggled to win on the PGA Tour.

Second favourite Robby Shelton looks a more favourable play at 12/1. He only missed one green yesterday and has already posted two Top 21's in his first three starts this season. Two wins on the KFT last year shows he can be clinical and he's one to watch this week.

Where is the value?

Given the nature of the event we are keen to look further down the leaderboard. Herbert was 5 shots back after round one last year and Gay was six back after round one in 2020 so it makes sense to chase some each way value.

Round 2 Bets

0.75pts Each Way Nick Taylor 80/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-5)

Nick also only missed one green yesterday and is four back of the leaders. He has enjoyed a strong start to the season with a 6th at Fortinet and 19th at Sanderson's. A winner by the coast at Pebble Beach, Nick is at his best in these conditions and won't mind the wind picking up over the weekend should it do so.

0.75pts Each Way Eric Van Rooyen 70/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-5)

Van Rooyen is on the same score as Taylor and looks worth chancing given his ability. He wasn't on the radar pre-event due to very poor form but an opening round hitting plenty of fairways and greens is encouraging. At his best, he is a very similar player to last year's winner Lucas Herbert. Already a winner on tour, he's being disrespected at this price.

0.5pts Each Way Brent Grant 300/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-5)

Finally, a small play on Brent Grant who is from Hawaii and is comfortable on these Bermuda Greens. Grant won on the KFT last year and is a massive hitter of the ball (averaged 339 yards yesterday). We could see him bullying his way round here like Taylor Pendrith did last year before becoming unstuck in the high winds on Sunday.

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