Event Info
Starts: 27th August 2020
Course: Olympia Fields CC
Par: 70 (35-35)
Length: 7,366 yards
Grass: Poa Annua
Defending Champion: Justin Thomas
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -6pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
T20th Collin Morikawa - 22/1
T16th Matthew Wolff - 45/1
T65th Cameron Champ - 80/1
T6th Jason Kokrak - 90/1
T33rd Corey Conners - 125/1
T12th Brian Harman - 150/1
In-Play Bets: -6pts
30 August 2020 ( -2 Points)
2pts Win Only Joaquinn Niemann - 20/1 @ Bet365
28 August 2020 ( -4 Points)
1pt Each Way Carlos Ortiz (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 150/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Sebastian Munoz (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 200/1 @ Bet365
Preview
Course Info
Opened in 1923, the North Course at Olympia Fields CC was designed by Willie Park Jr. A long layout with water in play on seven holes, it will offer a significantly harder test than last week. We won't be seeing a winning score of -30!
Not a regular tour stop, it hosted the 2003 US Open and 2015 US Amateur. Lesser tournaments held there in recent times include the Junior Ryder Cup in 2012 and the annual Fighting Illini Invitational,
The course is a par 70. There are only two par 5s, each playing longer than 600 yards. The four par 3s also offer a significant test with two long par 3s (215 and 280 yards on the course website) going to cause particular problems.
The course record is 63, shot by Vijay Singh and Rickie Fowler.
"Some of these greens are very small but very undulating. You've got to try to get it into the right side of the green and try to put yourself under the hole." Ernie Els, 2003 US Open
"There's a lot of choices off the tee here. You can hit 1-iron or 3-wood, or you can hit driver, and I think it is a course where you can challenge the hole if you want, or you can lay back. And that puts more players in the game." Davis Love III, 2003 US Open
"it's a ball strikers' golf course, and that's what I'm doing well right now. You can't really putt your way around that course, so I like that. I mean, it's just a really good course to play." Robby Shelton, 2015 US Amateur
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise an abundance of caution (credit: Chase Koepka and the PGA Tour) in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
There's a chance of rain and thunder on Friday morning, but weather should have little impact this week with pleasant conditions expected.
There is no cut this week, all 70 player will play all four rounds.
Trends
With limited course history to draw upon we have limited data upon which to determine any trends. This is further complicated by the fact the last professional event held here (2003 US Open) was set up to USGA specifications.
Accurate drivers prevailed when the course hosted the US Open. Jim Furyk and Stephen Leaney were both fairway finders in their day, and when the US Amateur was staged here several players spoke of the need to be playing from the fairway.
Stats Analysis
Ideally, we want golfers who are straight off the tee with power an added bonus. The rough is due to be thicker than a standard week on the PGA Tour, so accuracy is the order of the day.
The stats categories we should place particular emphasis on are Total Driving and Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.
In Play
At the 2003 US Open the first two home were in the top 5 after every round and Jim Furyk led from the second round onwards. With par 5s playing long and difficult par 3s, it is not a course that will yield many eagles. We should side with those towards the top of the leaderboard if betting in-play.
Six To Watch
Collin Morikawa - 22/1 @ William Hill
GBC favourite Collin Morikawa is the pick of the top players for us this week despite missing his second PGA Tour cut last week. At 22/1, we don't think the bookmakers have fully given Collin credit yet for what he is achieving and are we are happy to keep championing him until they do. The missed cut isn't a major issue as the last time he missed the cut, he bounced back with a win at Muirfield. Collin usually arrives at events with the disadvantage of not knowing the course as well as his competitors but arrives at Olympia Fields with a 13th place in 2017 and 2nd in 2018 on the amateur circuit. He showed at the PGA Championship just what he can do when it's a level playing field in terms of competitive course experience.
Matthew Wolff - 45/1 @ Bet365
Matt played 3 really solid rounds last week but a disaster Saturday 77 cost him a good finish. In spite of this he still managed to finish 7th SG: Off the tee and he performed similar at the PGA Championship on the way to a 4th place finish. The clincher for us is that Wolff arrives at Olympia Fields with more course experience than most, including a 13th place finish in 2017 and a WIN in 2018. He won that by one shot ahead of Collin Morikawa and it wouldn't be a big surprise to see a similar result.
Cameron Champ - 80/1 @ Bet365
Cameron is another young gun we are willing to forgive for his missed cut last week in what will be a completely different test here. We much prefer to look at how he performed in his previous appearance at the PGA Championship. Although he dropped to 10th place, he was right in the thick of it throughout and will have learned lots from that experience. As an added bonus he won the Illini Invitational in 2016 at Olympia Fields.
Jason Kokrak - 90/1 @Bet365
Although we aren't overly enthused with the price, we didn't feel we could leave Jason out. He appears to have a liking of for the playoffs, posting finishes of 12-19-9 last year and he finished 13th last week. That also followed a 15th place finish at Wyndham and he just appears to be bubbling under the surface. A strong driver of the ball, currently 10th for SG: Off the tee on the season rankings, we think he has all the requirements to challenge this week.
Corey Conners - 125/1 @ Bet365
Corey caught our eye last week with his 25th place despite a slow start, which was his first made cut in three weeks. Impressively, he played his last three rounds in 12 under par and improved his SG: Off the tee stats every day, eventually finishing 4th. Last year he finished 21st in the Northern Trust and then improved with a 7th place finish at the BMW and we can see him making a similar improvement here this week.
Brian Harman - 150/1 @ Bet365
Brian had a similar four rounds to Matthew Wolff last week, with his Saturday 73 preventing him placing in the top 10. However, he is trending in the right direction, with finishes of 58-27-11 in the last three weeks. He ranked 1st for driving accuracy and 5th for SG: Off the tee last week, so his driving is in great shape. An 8th place finish for SG: Tee to green means his irons aren't bad either. He will take great momentum from his Sunday 64 last week and seems a generous price at 150/1.
In-play
In-Play Blog
29th August 2020
-1 Matsuyama
-1 Johnson
-1 Hughes
-1 Scott
-1 Niemann
DJ is the bookies favourite going into the final round as he aims to win back-to-back events on the PGA Tour. After a birdie fest at The Northern Trust he has shown a different side to his game as he has plotted his way round Olympia Fields. He's yet to record a double bogey or worse and his ability to stay out of trouble should see him as the man to beat tonight.
After a great first day with his irons, Matsuyama has been negative Strokes Gained: Approach the past two days and it's hard to see him winning. With that in mind and scoring good at the time of writing (6.30pm) it's worth considering a few lower down the leaderboard who are capable of challenging DJ.
We advised Munoz earlier in the week at 200/1 and it would be great to see him win or place. We do however want to add another South American to the staking plan.
2pts Win Only Joaquinn Niemann - 20/1 @ Bet365
Joaquin stated after yesterday's round that he's "hitting the ball great" and we think he's value at 20/1 to add to his sole PGA Tour title. A winner on tour last year at the Greenbrier, he's a more than capable player in firm and fast conditions. He has improved his score every day this week and a slightly better day with the putter could see him win tonight.
27th August 2020
-3 Matsuyama
-2 Duncan
-1 Hughes
10 players tied at E
Golf fans who love watching the pros struggle got their wish as only three players broke par in testing conditions. Hideki Matsuyama leads by one after holing a 66ft birdie putt on his last hole, much to the dismay of punters who backed Tyler Duncan for the First Round Lead.
In terms of picking a winner, it has a major feel about it and the picture should be a lot clearer tomorrow morning. As it stands, anyone as far back as +5 is probably not out of it with an under-par round today. Thick, rough and firm greens meant there was a premium on hitting fairways for keeping control of the golf ball and we have picked out a couple of players who did this impressively yesterday.
1pt Each Way Carlos Ortiz (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 150/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Sebastian Munoz (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 200/1 @ Bet365
Carlos is in the group at level par, 3 off the lead. Playing with Tiger Woods and Bubba Watson, he seemed to thrive in their big-name company. He was 4th for driving accuracy, 2nd for greens in regulation and 8th for SG: Tee to green. He has had a relatively quiet 2020 season but had three top 5 finishes at the back end of 2019 and sometimes has the habit of just hanging around. If he maintains his long game from yesterday, he may have an each way chance at a generous price.
We're sticking with the South American theme with another player who finished level par yesterday. Seb was 4th SG: Tee to green and also 8th SG: Around the greens, so his scrambling is in good order. He won on tour last year at the Sandersons Farms Championship and finished 14th last week at The Northern Trust to show his game is in a good place at the moment. He is priced at 100/1 at most bookmakers, this really is a value price - if you're not fast, you're last!