Starts: 3rd March 2022
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Florida
Length: 7,466 yards
2021 Champion: Bryson DeChambeau
Designer: Dick Wilson & Joe Lee. Subsequent re-design by Arnold Palmer
Hosted since: 1979
Course type: Parkland
Rough: Thick (3.5 inches)
Greens: Tifeagle Bermuda, 13 on the Stimp
Water Hazards: Nine holes
Par 5's: 4th, 6th, 12th and 16th
Premium on: Approach play and putting
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Some light rain expected on Monday but dry rest of the week should mean the course plays firm. Thursday set to be the easiest of the conditions with winds in the single figures.
Thursday: Partly Cloudy, Max Wind 9mph.
Friday: Sunny, Max Wind 13mph.
Saturday: Mostly Sunny, Max Wind 13mph.
Sunday: Mostly Sunny, Max Wind 12mph.
Eight of the last nine years have been between -11 and -19. 2020 saw the winner post -4.
Price of Winner
Tiger Woods won eight times between 2000 and 2013. Winners are generally sub-50/1 with a few exceptions.
Surprisingly, quite a few of the winners have solid Texas form. Also worth considering similar Florida tests like Valspar and Honda Classic.
Eight of the last eleven champions had posted a top 5 finish.
Ten of the last 11 champions had posted a top 25 finish in their previous three starts.
The five winners previous to Bryson last year were all European or Australian.
We are looking for accurate approach play and a hot putter.
SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 1-36-2-42-46. Worth noting that Francesco Molinari was the only champion in the past five years to rank inside the top 20 in Driving Accuracy.
Only three champions have ranked inside the top 35 for Driving Distance in the past six years although note Bryson DeChambeau ranked 1st last year on route to winning.
The last five winners have ranked 9-3-43-15-13. In general, good approach play has been important. Worth noting that three of the past four champions have ranked inside the top 15 for Greens in Regulation.
SG: Around The Green
At first glance not hugely important. Rankings of 30-36-58-26-63 in the past four years. Bear in mind each of the past four champions has ranked inside the top 11 in scrambling.
This is a significant metric this week. The past five champions ranked 21-6-1-2-7 in this category.
The 18th and 8th ranked as the hardest last year. If betting in-play, be aware the 1st and 2nd usually rank inside the top six hardest.
The four par 5s play as the easiest, with the short par 4 13th playing under par each year also.
The 16th plays as the easiest hole each year and is a definite birdie opportunity. The 17th and 18th are regularly ranking inside the five toughest holes.
Fast or Slow Start
Every leader in the past six years has been within the top 20 after round one. Only one player has gone on to win having started the final day lower than 3rd.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
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