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WGC Dell Technologies Match Play 2023


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Event Info

Starts: 22nd March 2023
Course: Austin Country Club
Par: 71
Length: 7,108 yards
2021 Champion: Billy Horschel

Course Info

Designer: Pete Dye
Used Since: 2016
Fairways: Bermuda
Rough: Bermuda
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda
Water Hazards: On eight holes
Par 5's: 6th, 12th and 16th
Premium on: Tee to Green

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

This is a match play event and players will each play three group games with the winners progressing to the knockout phase.

Weather Forecast

Sunny throughout the week.

Wednesday
Light showers in the morning with 12-17mph wind.

Thursday
Light showers in the morning with 15-20mph wind.

Friday
Light showers in the morning and sunny in the afternoon.  Wind 8-12mph.

Saturday
Sunny with 3-6mph wind.

Sunday
Light showers in the morning with 7-11mph wind.

Trends

Winning Profile
With only the world's best in attendance, the winner will be a player who occupies a lofty position in the world rankings.  Kevin Kisner was 50th in the world when winning in 2019 but winners tend to have a better ranking than this. 

Correlating Courses 
Consider form at other Pete Dye venues such as Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, PGA West (Stadium Course) etc.

Event Form
Each of the past eleven champions had played in this event before.  Nine of the past twelve champions reached the final 16 the year before.

Recent form
Five of the past twelve champions had recorded a top 25 in their previous finish prior to winning.  Scottie Scheffler had finished 55th at The Players Championship before winning here last year.  He had won the Arnold Palmer Invitational immediately before The Players though.  Winner in 2021, Billy Horschel, wasn't in hot form immediately before either but did finish 2nd at the WGC Concession three starts before his win here.  Recent form is definitely preferred.

Nationality
Seven of the past twelve champions have been American.

In Play

Group Stage
It is important to win the opening group game in order to progress to the knockout stages.  In the past six years only 21 players from a possible 96 have progressed having failed to win their opening match.

2022: Two players progressed despite losing their opening match and one player progressed after an opening draw.
2021:
Two players progressed having lost their opening game and two progressed having drawn their opener.
2019:
Only two players progressed to the final 16 having lost their opening game.
2018: Four players who halved their opening match progressed but nobody progressed having lost their opener.
2017: Four players progressed to the knockout stage having lost their opening game.
2016: Three players who halved their opening game progressed.  Only one player who lost his opening game progressed.

Birdie Holes
The three par 5s offer birdie opportunities, as does the driveable par four 13th hole.

 

 

 

In-play

WGC Dell Match Play Championship In-Play Blog

26th March 2023, 10:45am (UK time)

 
 

2023 WGC Match Play Day 4 Summary

With the exception of MacKenzie Hughes beating Max Homa and Sam Burns beating Patrick Cantlay, Saturday at Austin CC was a day where we higher seeded players prevailed and we now have four players left who were the top seed in their group.

Notable WGC Match Play Day 4 Quotes

"Both the guys I played with today got off to really good starts -- actually, no, I got off to a good start this morning, but Jason got off to a really good start this afternoon and put behind pretty quickly there. I think I was 3-down through 7, but he made a mistake on 8 and then I birdied 9 and it was kind a match from there on out, and I had a really good back nine. When you get 3-down, that's what you've got to do. Very proud of that effort there on the back nine and my finish." Scottie Scheffler

"Both ends of the bag are working pretty well, and the stuff in the middle is not too bad, either. Yeah, I putted well all day. I felt yesterday against Keegan I found something or I got a feel, and then putted really good this morning against Lucas, and then continued that this afternoon." Rory McIlroy

2023 WGC Match Play Day 5 Weather

Sunny.  Wind 3-7mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Scottie Scheffler drifted out to 20/1 yesterday when three down to J.T. Poston but Scheffler bounced back to win that match and is now 17/10 favourite to win the event.  Scheffler has been starting slow in his matches though and the best strategy may be to look to back the defending champion in-play if he goes behind in his match to Burns.

Rory McIlroy is the man the bookmakers see as most likley to stop Scheffler but the 11/5 makes little appeal at this stage.  McIlroy was -16 for his two matches yesterday but he must defeat Cameron Young in the semi final today and Young has been playing some of the best golf all week. We'll likley be employing a similar strategy with McIlroy and looking for value in-play.

Where is the value?

Cameron Young may give Rory McIlroy a good game in their semi-final match up but it looks very much like we'll have a Scottie Scheffler vs Rory McIlroy final.  We don't see too much value in all honesty, the bookmakers having priced up things accordingly at this stage.

 

Day 5 Bets

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25th March 2023, 9:55am (UK time)

 
 

2023 WGC Match Play Day 3 Summary

The group stages came to a close with Jon Rahm being the biggest name to drop out. Tony Finau also lost a three-man playoff to bow out, meaning 9 of the 16 top seeds don't make it through to the knock out phase. 

Notable WGC Match Play Day 3 Quotes

"Honestly, I've just played some really solid golf. Obviously new caddie this week with Paul Tesori. I think the work that he's put in on my behalf this week, just as far as preparation and game planning, has done a lot of good for me." Cameron Young

"It's getting there. It's very solid. I didn't make a bogey the last couple of days. I think I only made one in the last three. It's good. It's probably as good as it's felt all year, which is nice going into obviously the next couple of weeks." Rory McIlroy

2023 WGC Match Play Day 4 Weather

Partly Sunny all day.  Wind 3-8mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Scottie Scheffler has shortened to 4/1 and is up against JT Poston in the next round. Judging by their scorecards yesterday, it shouldn't be plain sailing for Scheffler who carded two bogeys yesterday whilst Poston went round in a bogey free five under par. If Scheffler can advance, he is likely to face Jason Day followed by Patrick Cantlay should results go as expected so we can't see value in 4/1.

Rory McIlroy is next at 5/1 and he also has a potential banana skin against Lucas Herbert, who is playing remarkable golf after his disaster rounds at Sawgrass. Herbert has shot the lowest combined score in the field over the three days and won't make it easy for Rory. If he can get past the Aussie, he could face Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young before a potential clash against Scheffler in the final. 5/1 makes no appeal but Rory is talking a good game this week. 

Where is the value?

The favourites have been priced short for their match ups despite tough opponents and picking out the shock winners continues to be the play. 

 

Day 4 Bets

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24th March 2023, 00:55am (UK time)

 
 

2023 WGC Match Play Day 2 Summary

Jordan Spieth and Sungjae Im both relinquished leads to suffer shock defeats.  Several of the top seeds dropped out, including Tyrrell Hatton and Viktor Hovland.

Notable WGC Match Play Day 2 Quotes

"The biggest difference was on the greens. Started pretty solid yesterday on the first five, six holes, maybe the front nine. But after that, I didn't really -- didn't have my best, even starting on 4, 11, 12, and 14, those are 30-, 40-footers that usually I hit within 3 feet, and all of 'em were 6 feet or longer. I made one of 'em, missed three of 'em. That's what cost me the match, plain and simple. Apart from that, I hit a couple of really good putts that just didn't go in. Today, it was kind of the opposite, right, we were pretty even up until 8, and then 9, 11, 12, I make those putts and I suddenly have a five-shot lead. So that was the main difference. Tee to green, pretty similar." Jon Rahm

"Yesterday I made too many mistakes, I think, and today I just went out and played solid, no bogeys, and made some key putts in the beginning of the match. Alex birdied the first and then played solid after that, and made two key putts I believe on 5 and 6. I made about a seven-footer for birdie and then about an eight-footer for birdie to tie the match, and made another key putt at 7 for birdie to take the lead. After that I just kind of kept the pressure on him and hit really good shots on 10 and 11 and got myself in position on 12 and made a good putt there at 13." Scottie Scheffler

"it wasn't easy out there. It's windy and blustery and tricky. It was good. I'm really proud of myself that I hung in there after being three down early and clawing it back and producing the shots that I did over the last few holes to ultimately get the job done." Rory McIlroy

2023 WGC Match Play Day 3 Weather

Light rain in the morning.  Wind 5-11mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Scottie Scheffler has shortened to 5/1 after his convincing victory against Alex Noren.  Scheffler's path to the final has arguably been made easier by the fact J.T. Poston defeated Sungjae Im and Scheffler will now likely play the world number 52 rather than the world number 18 if he makes it out of the group tomorrow.  The defending champion can't be written off.

Rory McIlroy remains second favourite but can still be backed at 9/1.  That seems a very fair price considering he's driving the ball well and could possibly face Lucas Herbert in first knockout match.  

Where is the value?

We could still see a shock in several of the groups.  Our pre-event selection, MacKenzie Hughes, looks particularly big at 300/1 considering how he played on day two. A win against Taylor Montgomery would put him into a playoff to decide the group winner. 

Those of you with access to Skybet could do worse than back the 19/20 on offer for Xander Schauffele to beat Tom Hoge in their match today.

 

Day 3 Bets

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23rd March 2023, 7:35am (UK time)

 
 

2023 WGC Match Play Day 1 Summary

Several favourites lost out in the first round, Jon Rahm being the highest ranked player to slip up.  Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris and Matt Fitzpatrick were badly out of sorts and Viktor Hovland succumbed to match play specialist, Matt Kuchar.  Scottie Scheffler survived a scare when Davis Riley missed a 3ft birdie putt to level the match on the 16th.  Scheffler needed to hole a 12ft birdie putt on the 18th to win one up.

Notable WGC Match Play Day 1 Quotes

" I've been trying to work on just kind of hitting and playing and not talking so much. I did an okay job of that. I would say I didn't do a great job of that on my last hole. I was like, what am I doing hitting it over here, and then I ended up holing the shot. It doesn't necessarily affect how I play, but it is a lot less energy used up, it feels like, over the last couple weeks." Jordan Spieth

"I didn't have my best stuff today. Made too many mistakes throughout the round and had some chances to kind of put it away, made a few mistakes, but fortunately made a really nice putt there on 18." Scottie Scheffler

"Driver was good. Driver was really good. I'm much happier with where I am there. Obviously off the tee is such an important part of the game for me. Putter was good. Struggled a little bit with the speed, so I'll probably go work on that a little bit this afternoon. But overall pretty happy with my win." Rory McIlroy

2023 WGC Match Play Day 2 Weather

Cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning and wind rising to 19mph in the afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Scottie Scheffler is priced up as 7/1 favourite but he really didn't convince yesterday and with the unpredictability of match play, we are in no rush to take the odds on offer.  Scheffler had arguably his easiest game of the group yesterday and must now defeat Alex Noren and Tom Kim, two players who love the cut and thrust of match play.

Rory McIlroy is 10/1 second favourite and he makes much more appeal given his potential second round opponent looks like being Ben Griffin or Lucas Herbert.  Number one seed in Griffin and Herbert's group, Tyrrell Hatton, lost out yesterday after appearing to injure his hand in the warm up and McIlroy is now expected to reach at least the quarter finals.

Where is the value?

Don't discount players who lost their opening match, on average two players per year qualify for the knockout stages after losing their opening game.  There could be opportunities to pick up some big prices on players who lost out yesterday.

 

Day 2 Bets

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