Preview

Course Info

The US PGA Championship reverts back to its traditional August slot because of the pandemic. Whilst traditionally the final Major of the year, last year it moved to May to become the second.

TPC Harding Park was designed by Scotsman Willie Watson in 1925 and hosted the World Golf Championship events in 2015 and 2005 - latterly the WGC Matchplay Championship and formerly a WGC American Express strokeplay event. It also staged the President's Cup in 2009, so some of the top players have had the advantage of playing the course several times.

The front 9 is tree-lined, so less exposed to wind, whilst the second 9 has water in play. The closing 3 holes should offer much excitement with a driveable par 4, long par 3 17th and a long par 4.

​"Here it's kind of more right in front of you, old traditional style golf course. There's not a lot going on in the greens. Actually, I've found them very difficult to read the last few days, just because there's so many subtle little breaks, where I can't decide if it's breaking left or breaking right or straight from 20 feet. So there really hasn't been‑‑ it's just a different style. But I'm definitely more comfortable on a golf course like this where it's kind of right straight in front of you." Jim Furyk, 2015 WGC Matchplay

"I don't necessarily see this as a bomber's course. I didn't really see Dove Mountain (Note - previous WGC Matchplay location) as a bomber's course. I think you've got to work your ball in both places. I think this one may play more into my hands just having to curve the ball a little more maybe both ways off the tee, it's not as much emphasis in hitting high and far. More emphasis in coming from the fairway, because the greens are firm." Jordan Spieth, 2015 WGC Matchplay

"It's tough to make birdies. The golf course is so long that some of the greens are really bouncing right now. It's only the first day, and you're getting some big bounces, even with sand wedges. And the golf course sets up good off the tee for me, as long as I hit my driver well. There's a lot of cut shots off the tee, so it sets up good for me." Bubba Watson, 2015 WGC Matchplay

"I thought Harding Park was a great venue, and I felt like it suited me well." Rory McIlroy, 2016

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

As above The USPGA Championship has returned to August.

Trends

The world's top 50 players have had somewhat of a monopoly on Major titles in recent years given that the last 32 champions have come from this category.

Only one winner in the past 11 years has not had a top-20 in their two previous starts.
 

Stats Analysis

Driving Distance, Driving Distance and Driving Distance. The PGA of America have in recent years placed their Championship at venues which test the players' length. The only winner among the last nine who hasn't ranked in the top-25 for driving distance is Jason Dufner. Length off the tee is an undoubted advantage.

So, how does that compare with what we know about TPC Harding Park?

The 2105 WGC Matchplay final was contested by Rory McIlroy and Gary Woodland. Of the 8 players who made the quarter finals, 6 of those were longer than average off the tee, with only Jim Furyk and John Senden being shorter, accurate hitters.

At the 2009 Presidents Cup, Tiger Woods secured 5 points out of 5 and Phil Mickelson went undefeated scoring 4.5 out of 5. Admittedly they were 1st and 2nd in the world at that time, but both finished 2009 inside the top-21 for Driving Distance.

​At the 2005 WGC American Express it was a similar story with Tiger Woods winning and another big hitter (John Daly) following him home. It's worth noting however, that the three golfers who finished 3rd were Europeans who were more accurate players (Stenson, Garcia and Montgomerie). A shorter, accurate player can get in the places.

In Play

Unlike the other Majors, players don't need to be within the top-10 at US PGA Championship's. Around 50% of USPGA Champions have come from outside the top-10 after the first round.

Six To Watch

As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:

Justin Thomas - 10/1 @ William Hill
After doing the business for us last week, winning the WGC after we tipped him up after 18 holes at 7/1, we like everything about Justin to go back to back this week and claim his second PGA title. We can't understand how he is only a point or two shorter than Brooks Koepka and Rory Mcllroy, given his performance last week where he ranked 1st for SG: Tee to green. In fact he leads that category for the season by a massive 0.3 gap to his nearest rival. The worrying part for Justin's rivals is that he putted terribly last week and still won by 3 shots. One word of caution, Justin occasionally starts slow so you may be able to get a better price than 10/1 in-play, however he does have an early tee time which should get the best of the conditions.

Collin Morikawa - 35/1 @ William Hill
Next in line we have the Collin Morikawa who is only making his 2nd major start, and the price shows that the bookies are taking no chances with the young superstar. Collin warmed up nicely last week, never in contention though playing the weekend in 67, 66 to finish 20th. What was noticeable about his performance was he ranked 2nd for driving accuracy and 3rd for greens in regulations. He ranks 4th for the season in SG: Tee to green and all of this combined makes us think he will be perfectly suited to the test at Harding park.

Abraham Ancer - 66/1 @ Bet365
Abraham was marked down for the USPGA some weeks back when he produced an extraordinary ball striking display to finish 2nd at the RBC Heritage in June. Although he's been unable to hit those heights since, he has showed signs last weekend he is close with rounds of 65, 66 to finish 15th. Like Morikawa, he impressed stats wise finishing 6th for driving accuracy and 7th for greens in regulation. If the brief is correct that you want to keep out of the rough at all costs this week, Ancer is a good man to have onside. The course is also meant to play firm this week which should suit his accurate game.

Chez Reavie - 100/1 @ William Hill
We can't ignore Chez after a fine ball striking display last week which saw him finish 2nd in SG: Tee to green, only slightly behind Justin Thomas. He was also ranked 5th SG: around the green, a stat that should be important around Harding Park. This was his 3rd top 25 in succession and he has just the sort of neat and tidy game we expect to prosper this week. He has finished 12th, 14th and 2nd in his last three majors on American soil so the evidence suggests he enjoys a tough major test. With some bookies offering up to 11 places this week, he could represent great value at 100/1.

Tom Lewis- 160/1 @ 888 Sport
It is worth noting that the last 32 major winners were all ranked in the world's top 50 when they won so it was interesting to see Tom Lewis sneak in there with his blistering weekend finish last week. Tom played the weekend in 13 under par, which was in fact the winning score. He was 3rd for greens in regulation and 10th SG: Tee to green. There is without doubt a trend of PGA winners playing well the week before the event and we thought he is fairly priced given the amount of confidence and momentum he will take into this week.

Ryan Palmer - 175/1 @ Bet365
Ryan is another who is quite comfortable in fields of this strength and showed last week he is peaking quite nicely. It was only two weeks ago he took Jon Rahm the whole way to finish 2nd at the Memorial - another tough setup. He then finished last week with a Sunday 64 to finish 15th place, where he was 4th SG: Tee to green. Palmer doesn't have the best major record so it may be worth waiting to see how he starts before getting him onside, but he is without doubt playing some of the best golf of his career right now. ​

In-play

In Play Blog

9th August 2020

-9 Johnson
-8 Champ
-8 Scheffler
-7 Koepka
-7 Casey
-7 Morikawa

It was another good day for GBC followers as our 40/1 3rd round leader tip, Cameron Champ, collected the full each way place.  He would have been joint leader had he not left his putt on the 18th 1 inch short, right in the jaws.  You can't win them all though!

Dustin Johnson leads by one going into the final round but his recent record in contention is patchy at best (you can view our player profile here).  He has been reliant on his putter so far this week and we struggle to see him converting with the quality behind. 

Yesterday's outright tips are placed nicely going into the final round with Morikawa and Champ sitting 4th and 2nd respectively.  Given they were tipped up at 66/1 and 40/1 and they are both now generally 12/1, backers will be hoping they can fulfil their significant potential today.  Tommy Fleetwood sits only three back and Matt Wolff is still very much in with a shout for the each way places, so we are nicely placed already.

With DJ susceptible to a slip up, we are happy to stick with our existing bets going into the final round.  Both Morikawa and Champ have 4⭐ Pressure Performance Ratings (if you haven't seen our Player Profiles yet we'd advise you do) and we are happy to let those bets play out.

Brooks Koepka is the player that just won't go away.  He bounced back from three consecutive bogeys yesterday by playing the last three holes in 2 under par and he is the big danger today.  At odds of 5/1 he's probably worth a cover bet as he's almost definitely going to be in the mix towards the end of the day.  We don't put him up as a featured bet but wouldn't put you off if you wanted to do so.

3PTS TOMMY FLEETWOOD TOP 10 FINISH - EVENS @ 888 SPORT

Tommy didn't have his A game yesterday but played the final three holes in 2 under par to give him some momentum going into today's final round.  Being a few shots off the lead should suit him and he's a player who relishes the chase.  He ranks 5th in SG: Off the Tee this week and he'll be playing from the short stuff most of the time.  He's as low as 8/11 at other bookmakers so the evens represents real value.

8th August 2020

-8 Tong Li
-6 Day
-6 Fleetwood
-6 Koepka
-6 Rose
-6 Lorenzo-Vera
-6 Berger

It was a glorious day for GBC followers as we landed our biggest ever win, tipping up Hao Tong Li to be 2nd round leader at 60/1. Making the most of his early start, Hao Tong shot out of the traps shooting a 65 to take the 36-hole lead by two shots. Remarkably, he only hit 4 fairways yesterday, and the TV coverage showed him on the practice range for hours after his round.

With the quality of the chasing pack, it still appears very unlikely he will go onto win, however he has shown before he can compete with the best when he defeated Rory Mcllroy in a two horse race in Dubai back in 2018. With the driver misbehaving though, we are prepared to take him on and have identified a potential 3rd round leader and also four outright selections. 

1PT EW CAMERON CHAMP 3RD ROUND LEADER - 40/1 @ BET365 (1/5 1,2,3,4)

1PT EW CAMERON CHAMP OUTRIGHT - 40/1 @ BET365 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Cameron fired 7 birdies yesterday on route to a 64 and sits three shots behind Tong Li. He is leading the field for strokes gained off the tee and also driving distance this week. Strong driving is the name of the game this week and if he continues to impress off the tee he will set himself up with plenty of birdie opportunities today. He is as low as 25/1 at some bookmakers to take the 54-hole lead so we are assured this is a value price. We also thin the is a fair price in the outright market so will have a small play on that. 

3PTS TOMMY FLEETWOOD WIN ONLY - 9/1 @ BETFAIR

Tommy also shot a 64 yesterday and sits in 2nd place, two shots back. Tommy is 5 points bigger than 4/1 favourite Brooks Koepka and we think gap is a misjudgement on the bookmakers part. Only Champ has driven the ball better than Tommy this week and he is oozing with confidence, stating after the round that his game is getting stronger by the day. He has now had enough experience in the mix at majors and we feel this may be as good a time as ever for him to convert.

1PT EW MATTHEW WOLFF OUTRIGHT - 100/1 @ BET365 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

We are sticking with the strong drivers this week, Matthew ranks 3rd SG: off the tee this week and is also 1st in the field tee to green. He sits five shots back but with our doubts remaining regarding Hao Tong, he might really only be three shots back. If Matthew's putter can heat up, we think he has a great chance of placing and worth a small play at 100/1.

1PT EW COLLIN MORIKAWA OUTRIGHT - 66/1 @ BET365 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Collin is our final play, purely based on his price. Given how highly we rate Collin at GBC, 66/1 is a price we feel is too good to pass up. Yes he is currently six shots back, but on his day he can be a birdie machine and he has the potential to shoot through the field tomorrow on moving day. 

7th August 2020

-5 Todd
-5 Day
-4 Scheffler
-4 Kaymer
-4 Schauffele
-4 Z Johnson
-4 Cauley
-4 Koepka
-4 Rose
-4 Steele
-4 Lorenzo-Vera


Yesterday saw the morning players get the better of the draw as the wind kicked up in the afternoon.  Brendon Todd continued his good play from last week and he was the only player to crack the top 10 from the afternoon wave.

Brooks Koepka goes into the second round as 5/1 favourite as he searches for his third straight US PGA Championship.  He was bullish in his post round interview yesterday and must be respected but with an afternoon tee time the 5s makes little appeal at this stage. 

With conditions expected to be much the same for day two (the wind may be slightly stronger), we should favour those players who have an early tee time today.

2PTS BRENDON TODD 2ND ROUND LEADER - 9/1 @ BOYLESPORTS (WIN ONLY)

 Brendon's 65 in difficult conditions demonstrated the quality of his ball striking recently.  He let himself down badly when trying to close out the WGC last week but this bet only requires him to play well for a further 18 holes.  He will have the best of conditions today and can be expected to continue to kick on.

1PT EW HAOTONG LI 2ND ROUND LEADER - 60/1 @ BETFAIR (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

1PT EW JT POSTON 2ND ROUND LEADER - 40/1 @ BETFAIR (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Li and Poston both sit at -3 going into today's second round and are value to make a move up the leaderboard with morning tee times.  Neither player is likely to win this but they are both proven winners on their respective tours and are more than capable of backing up yesterday's impressive round with another one today.  Better prices are available but we are keen on the 5 places Betfair are offering.

2PTS EW ADAM SCOTT - 50/1 @ 888 SPORT (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Adam shot an impressive 68 yesterday in the harder afternoon conditions.  Even more impressive was the fact this was his first start since early March as he had chosen to stay home in Australia rather than resume competitive golf.  Adam turned 40 last month and it's no coincidence that we saw a more composed player win the Genesis Invitational earlier this season.  We really like Adam to go well this week from here.

1PT EW VIKTOR HOVLAND - 50/1 @ BETFAIR (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Viktor is a major winning in waiting having turned pro last year and already notched his first win on the PGA Tour.  His play since golf resumed has been exceptionally consistent, albeit he has had two quiet weeks recently.  He has a nice early tee time today and we expect him to make moves up the leaderboard.

1PT EW PATRICK REED - 40/1 @ BOYLESPORTS (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Patrick is another player who shot -2 in the trickier conditions yesterday and can be expected to progress today.  Despite being world number 8, Patrick's price doesn't reflect this and he is too good to turn down at these odds.  A proven major winner with a stock draw shape which sets up nicely at TPC Harding, he's a solid each way play.