Preview
Event Info
Starts: 14th July 2022
Course: Old Course, St Andrews
Par: 72
Length: 7,313 yards
Course Info
Course Last Used: 2015
Type of Course: Links
Fairways: Undulating
Rough: Thick Fescue
Par 5's: 5th and 14th
Premium on: Links experience
The Basics
The Open Championship is the only one of golf's Majors to be played outside the USA and is traditionally played on a links course. This year it returns to St Andrews, the Old Course having last hosted six years ago. It is a par 72 with only two par 5s (5th and 14th). Winning scores when the Open was last played here in 2015 and 2010 were -15 and -16. It is one of the lower scoring Open venues.
Significant Info
This is the 150th Open Championship.
Weather
We're in for a dry and warm week.
Thursday
The wind will blow around 9mph in the morning and reach 16mph in the afternoon.
Friday
The wind will blow around 11mph in the morning and reach 17mph in the afternoon.
Saturday
The wind will blow around 11mph in the morning and reach 19mph in the afternoon.
Sunday
The wind will blow around 10mph in the morning and reach 17mph in the afternoon.
Trends
Winning Score
The last four Open Championships at the Old Course have had winning scores ranging from -14 to -19. The weather is the biggest factor in determining the winning score.
Correlating Courses
Links form is essential so consider form at other links events such as the Alfred Dunhill Links, Scottish Open and Irish Open (when a links course has been used).
Event Form
Of the last 16 Open Champions, 14 had recorded at least a top-9 finish at a previous Open before winning. Furthermore, eight of the last ten champions had made at least 4 appearances at The Open prior to winning. Look for a player with proven Open experience.
Recent Form
Nine of the previous thirteen winners had recorded a top 20 in their previous two events.
Nationality
An eclectic range of nationalities have won the Open in recent times.
Age
Only four of the last 13 Open winners were below 30. Experience counts for a lot and patience is a key requirement.
Major Virgins
Five of the last eleven Open winners were winning their first Major.
Debutants
Only three players have won The Open on their debut in the last 46 years. None of those winners came at St Andrews. Ben Curtis and Collin Morikawa won at Royal St George's in 2003 and 2021. Tom Watson triumphed at Carnoustie in 1975 on his debut.
Prior Year Performance
Despite the strong trend for winners to have posted a top 10 at previous Opens, of the last twelve winners, seven missed the cut the previous year. In fact, no winner in the past 12 years has posted a top 25 at The Open the year before they won.
Current Year Momentum
Eight of the last 11 Open champions had won an event in their previous eight starts. Do not underestimate the importance of momentum.
World Ranking
In the last 21 years there have only been five winners of the Open Championship outside the world's top-50. Looking specifically at St Andrews, the last five winners have ranked 25-54-1-1-93 (most recent first).
Stats Analysis
We look at the stats for the last four winners of the Open at St Andrews.
Driving Distance
60-4-1-1. Distance certainly helps around St Andrews but Zach Johnson showed in 2015 that it isn't essential, finishing 60th.
Driving Accuracy
3-1-9-7. Driving Accuracy appears to be helpful, avoiding the bunkers and fescue will save the players shots this week.
Greens in Regulation
40-9-53-1. Not as essential as you would think, the large greens can mean greens in regulation can still lead to three putts.
Scrambling
2-15-10-7. We are looking for someone with a tidy short game this week.
Putts Per GIR
8-2-7-7. The putter is usually essential for success at St Andrews.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 17th played as the hardest hole in 2015. The 16th and 13th were the next hardest holes.
Birdie Holes
The par 5 5th hole played as the easiest hole in 2015. The driveable par 4 18th and 10th ranked as 2nd and 3rd easiest.
Closing Stretch
The 18th ranked as the 2nd easiest hole in 2015 but 17 and 16 ranked as the two hardest holes.
Fast or Slow Start
Every Open champion in the past 21 years has been within 5 shots after the first round. When the Open was last played here in 2010 and 2015, eventual winners Louis Oosthuizen and Zach Johnson, were 2 shots (2nd) and 1 shot (2nd) off the first round lead.
Just as it is important to be within touching distance after round 1, it is essential to keep pace at the Open as 80% of Open Champions in the past 50 years have been inside the top-10 at the halfway stage. When the Open was played here in 2010, Louis Oosthuizen led by five strokes after round 2. In 2015, Zach Johnson trailed by three shots (4th place).
Over 75% of winners in the past 20 years have been within 3 shots with one round to go.
In-play
The Open In-Play Blog
17 July 2022, 8:55am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hovland |
-16 |
| McIlroy |
-16 |
| Smith |
-12 |
| Young |
-12 |
| Scheffler |
-11 |
| S W Kim |
-11 |
| Johnson |
-10 |
Round 3 Summary
In a total contrast to the first two days, Cameron Smith struggled to hole a putt and relinquished the lead. Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland, who were paired together, fed off each other and shot a pair of 66's to open up a four shot lead at the top of the leaderboard.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"I think it's appreciating the moment as well and appreciating the fact that it's unbelievably cool to have a chance to win The Open at St Andrews. It's what dreams are made of. And I'm going to try to make a dream come true tomorrow." Rory McIlroy
"I hit the ball really good today. It's probably actually the best I hit it all week. I had lots of opportunities. Like I said, just no putts were dropping. Yeah, It was quite frustrating." Cameron Smith
"I don't think there's any other place that would top it. Growing up in Norway and always watched The Open Championship for way longer than I ever did, for example, the Masters. Yeah, to win a major that's closest to home, that would be really cool." Viktor Hovland
Round 3 Weather
Sunny intervals with a gentle breeze. The wind will blow fairly consistently around 10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy is the 10/11 favourite and is entirely deserving of favouritism. A four time Major winner, he leads the field in SG: Tee to Green this week. We mentioned in yesterday's blog how Rory seems to save his best for circumstances that inspire him and that remains the worry for the rest of the field.
McIlroy mentioned in his post round press conference that he's "going to try and make a dream come true" and we shouldn't underestimate just how much that focuses his mind. Too often he's made unforced errors in contention but just as we saw at the Canadian Open, when he's playing with a purpose he's an even bigger danger.
Viktor Hovland is the 15/8 2nd favourite and that's a price that reflects his lack of experience contending in Majors. Somewhat unbelievably for a player who has won six times already in his short career, he's yet to post a top 10 in a Major. This will be a new experience for him but it will certainly help he's playing alongside his good friend Rory McIlroy. Hovland pipped McIlroy to the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this season and whilst the circumstances were different that day, he at least knows he's beaten the Northern Irishman before.
Cameron Smith (12/1) and Cameron Young (25/1) are the players closest to the leaders but both will need final round fireworks in order to win. It's hard to envisage both leaders being over par given the way the Old Course is playing this week and so Smith or Young will need to shoot 66 or better to have a chance. That's not unthinkable given Cameron Smith leads the putting stats this week and Cameron Young is 2nd SG: Tee to Green. However, Smith does feel a fraction short in the betting.
A similar sentiment applies to those further down the leaderboard. Scottie Scheffler is undoubtedly capable of a final round birdie blitz and odds of 25/1 are tempting. If you want some final round interest at a bigger price, he could well be the man to back.
Where is the value?
We're looking at a two ball selection.
Round 4 Bet
- In-play bets for The Open are only available to subscribers.
16 July 2022, 6:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Smith |
-13 |
| Young |
-11 |
| McIlroy |
-10 |
| Hovland |
-10 |
| Johnson |
-9 |
| Scheffler |
-8 |
| Hatton |
-8 |
Round 2 Summary
Cameron Smith opened his second round with three consecutive birdies and didn't look back as he fired a flawless round of 64 to take the lead. The morning starters had to contend with some early rain but conditions were largely pleasant for everyone.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"It was a completely different golf course than the course we played yesterday with the wind switch. Playing the first few holes sort of down and off the right and the last few holes off the left. Completely the opposite wind than we had yesterday.......Two really, really solid rounds to open and really happy with that." Rory McIlroy
"I didn't putt as well today. I think for the most part I managed it pretty well. I made a couple of greedy mistakes on 2 and on 15 were my only bogeys. Those I think were both very avoidable. I didn't quite pick the right shots. One of them I just chunked, and one of them I picked the wrong shot, which I think I could have avoided. But mostly pretty good. I can't complain." Cameron Young
"I think I just played some really good golf last week. Just a little bit I guess more pep in my step. My last few tournaments before that one weren't the greatest. I wasn't really happy with how I was playing. It's nice to put a good, solid weekend together (at the Scottish Open) ahead of this one." Cameron Smith
"I think I've just been a little insecure, and obviously when you start to see the ball going both ways a little bit, it just creates some more tension. And I feel like right now I'm kind of back to hitting that lower fade off the tee when I'm in a spot where I just got to hit the fairway." Viktor Hovland
Round 3 Weather
Sunny intervals with a moderate breeze. The wind will increase as the day goes on and reach a peak of around 13mph in the afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Cameron Smith is 15/8 favourite as we move into the weekend. The Aussie has putted incredibly over the first few days (1st SG: Putting and gained over 10 strokes in putting over the two days) and fully deserves his place at the top of the leaderboard. Smith was our top selection at the start of the week and we're obviously keen to see him finish the job.
We often see players struggle to maintain a good putting performance but that's not been the case with Cameron Smith this year. Smith ranked 1st for SG: Putting for both his wins this year (Tournament of Champions and The Players Championship), demonstrating an ability to stay hot with the flat stick. That said, the 15/8 is no more than fair in our opinion. The players chasing him are all elite golfers and there is plenty of golf left to be played.
Rory McIlroy has eased slightly in the betting to 4/1 and it's a price worth considering given the outstanding golf he's playing at the moment. Third in SG: Tee to Green this week, he appears completely at ease on the course.
Rory seems to be at his best when he has something inspiring him, his win at the Canadian Open in June fuelled by a desire to surpass Greg Norman's PGA Tour wins. It shouldn't go unnoticed that Rory was playing the 1st hole on Friday as Tiger Woods was bowing out on the 18th. Given their close relationship, it wouldn't be a surprise if Rory was keen to win this week and dedicate the win to his friend.
Cameron Young was 9/1 after the first round and that's the price you can back him with 36 holes to go. He's out in front of the SG: Tee to Green stats this week and certainly remains a factor in this tournament. He's yet to win a PGA Tour event so a win this week would be a big step up for him but he'll have learnt from being in contention at the PGA Championship in May.
Yesterday's 22/1 in-play tip, Viktor Hovland, has come into 10/1 and he too can't be written off. Touted as a future world number 1 at the start of the year, he's struggled the past few months but has regained his power fade off the tee and looks to be a danger man over the weekend.
Where is the value?
We're looking at a two ball selection and one further play in the outright market.
Round 3 Bet
- In-play bets for The Open are only available to subscribers.
14 July 2022, 9:15pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Young |
-8 |
| McIlroy |
-6 |
| C Smith |
-5 |
| Nine players tied |
-4 |
Round 1 Summary
Cameron Young took advantage of benign morning conditions to post a round of 64 and open up a two shot lead at the top of the leaderboard.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"Everything feels very settled. No real issues with my game. Everything feels like it's in good shape. Everything feels just sort of nice and quiet, which is a nice way to be. And yeah, thinking well." Rory McIlroy
"Last week was hard. You're jet-lagged. We played in some pretty difficult conditions. That was one of those weeks that you have to just take away from it when you can. I didn't feel like I played horrible. I just scored really poorly." Cameron Young
"I think it was nice to get out there this morning. It's a little bit fresh this morning, but there wasn't much wind around for the first three or four holes. And just nice to get off to a good start. Couple of birdies in the first five there and really set the tone for the day. Yeah, you start to feel a little better earlier this week and have some more time to prepare, and I think it can change drastically between what people feel like last week and this week." Cameron Smith
Round 2 Weather
Possible rain showers in the morning with the wind blowing around 9-11mph. The rain will clear in the afternoon with the wind expected to peak around 13mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy is 7/2 favourite after another strong start to a Major. We've seen similar starts from McIlroy in the PGA Championship and US Open this year and on each occasion he has posted top ten finishes but hasn't been able to crack the top three. He spoke of how he is playing with "freedom" in his post round interview and he's clearly very comfortable with his game and the course this week. That said, there's a lot of quality players in contention and we aren't prepared to pull the trigger at the price available.
Cameron Smith is 2nd favourite at 15/2 and he'd be under consideration were we not already on him. Advised to subscribers pre-event at 25/1, we consider Smith to be a strong contender for the title. We certainly wouldn't put you off him if you don't already have him onside.
Scottie Scheffler (8/1) and Cameron Young (9/1) are the only other players priced up at single figures. It would be foolish to write off either player given the outstanding year they have both had. Scheffler has won four times and Young has done everything but win. If there is to be rain in the morning, Scheffler will be playing in it and for that reason we're happy to pass over him at the moment.
Where is the value?
With the morning starters possibly having some rain to contend with, we are looking at players playing later in the afternoon.
Round 2 Bet
- In-play bets for The Open are only available to subscribers.
