Preview

Course Info

Course Designer: William Laidlaw Purves
Course Last Used: 2011
Type of Course: Links
Fairways: Undulating
Rough: Thick Fescue
Water Hazards: None of note
Par 5's: 7^th and 14^th
Premium on: Ability to deal with wind

The Basics

The Open Championship (incorrectly known as the British Open in the USA) is the only one of golf's Majors to be played outside the USA and is traditionally played on a links course.  This year it returns to Royal St George's in England for the first time since 2011.  It is a par 70 with only two par 5s (7th and 14th) and two very long par 3s (240+ yards).  Winning scores when the Open was last played here in 2003 and 2011 were -1 and -5, so it's one of the harder venues.

"Royal St. George's is a different golf course. It is up-and-downey and it has some mounds in it and a lot of the fairways are mounded so it does repel golf shots. Tiger Woods"

2011 Recap

Only four players broke par and fan favourite Darren Clarke prevailed.  Three rounds under par and a closing 70 saw post a 5 under par total and win by three.  Ominously for this year's field, Dustin Johnson finished 2^nd.

Round one conditions were calm with joint leaders Thomas Bjorn and Tom Lewis coming from different halves of the draw to post -5.  The second round saw the wind pick up in the afternoon.  Wind and rain were present for the third round, with the morning starters getting the worst of it and unable to make up ground on the leaders.

Clarke led by a shot going into the final round and although Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson kept him on his toes, a Johnson double bogey on 14 meant Clarke had a four shot lead with four holes to play. 

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Weather

We're in for a dry and warm week.

Thursday - The wind will consistently blow at 13mph+ throughout the day.
Friday - The wind will peak around lunchtime at 15mph.
Saturday - The leaders are likey to face the tougher conditions, with 16mph forecast from lunchtime onwards.
Sunday - 12-14mph throughout the day.

Trends

Winning Score
The last ten Open Championships have had winning scores ranging from -3 to -20.  The weather plays a huge factor in determining the winning score.

Price of Winner
The last two winners at Royal St George's were in excess of 100/1

Correlating Courses
Links form is essential so consider form at other links events such as the Alfred Dunhill Links, Scottish Open and Irish Open.

Event Form
Of the last 15 Open Champions, 14 had recorded at least a top-9 finish at a previous Open before winning.  Furthermore, each of the last 9 champions had made at least 4 appearances at The Open prior to winning, and 8 of the 9 had made at least 6 appearances prior to winning.   Look for a player with proven Open experience.

Recent Form
Eight of the previous twelve winners had recorded a top 20 in their previous two events and seven of the past ten champions had recorded a win in their previous seven starts.

Nationality
An eclectic range of nationalities have won the Open in recent times.​

Age
Only three of the last 12 Open winners were below 30.  Experience counts for a lot and patience is a key requirement.

Major Virgins
Five of the last ten Open winners were winning their first Major.

Debutants
Ben Curtis won here in 2003 on his Open debut.  Curtis was one of only two winners in the past 45 years who won on their Open debut (Tom Watson in 1975 was the other). Whilst unlikely, don't rule out a debutant winning at this quirky venue.

Prior Year Performance
Despite the strong trend for winners to have posted a top 10 at previous Opens, of the last eleven winners, seven missed the cut the previous year.  In fact, no winner in the past 11 years has posted a top 25 at The Open the year before they won.

Momentum
Seven of the last 10 Open champions had won an event in their previous seven starts.  Do not underestimate the importance of momentum.

World Ranking
In the last 20 years there have only been five winners outside the world top-50.  However, the past two champions at Royal St George's (Ben Curtis in 2003 and Darren Clarke in 2011) were both outside the world's top 100.  We know that the course offers a significant element of unpredictability as there are more mounds, bumps and hollows on Royal St George's than the other courses on the Open rota so it wouldn't be a surprise to see an unexpected name come away with the Claret Jug.

Stats Analysis

With the fairways at Royal St George's designed to funnel balls into the rough, driving accuracy is less important on this course than other Open venues. Looking at the last two Opens held here, Greens in Regulation have been the most important stat with each of the top-3 last time here in 2011 finishing in the top-6 for greens in regulation.

Driving Distance
Shane Lowry ranked 52^nd in 2019.

Driving Accuracy
Lowry was 44^th in 2019 and that's not a huge deviation from the average in previous years.

Greens In Regulation
Lowry ranked 1^st in 2019.

Scrambling
Six of the past seven champions have ranked inside the top 10.  (However, it was notable Darren Clarke ranked 61^st in this category on his way to winning in 2011.)  Ability to scramble well is key here.

Putts per GIR
Lowry ranked 39^th in 2019.

In Play

Tough Holes
Tiger Woods lost his ball from his opening tee shot in 2003 at Royal St George's so it's not a gentle opening hole. The 4^th and 8^th holes were the hardest in 2011.
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Birdie Holes
The 7^th hole was the only one that played under par in 2011.  The 12^th played to its par and it was the only other hole that didn't play over par.

Closing Stretch
The 18^th ranked as the third hardest on the course in 2011, with 16 and 17 ranking as 14^th and 10^th hardest.

Fast or Slow Start
Every Open champion in the past 20 years has been within 5 shots after the first round.  When the Open was last played here in 2003 and 2011, eventual winners Ben Curtis and Darren Clarke were 4 shots (13th) and 3 shots (6th) off the first round lead.

Just as it is important to be within touching distance after round 1, it is essential to keep pace at the Open as 80% of Open Champions in the past 50 years have been inside the top-10 at the halfway stage.  When the Open was played here in 2003 Ben Curtis was 3 shots behind in 4th place after round 2.  In 2011, Darren Clarke led after 36 holes.

75% of winners in the past 20 years have been within 3 shots with one round to go.

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Inplay

The Open In-Play Blog

18th July 2021, 8am

Louis Oosthuizen’s lead is back to one shot over Morikawa and three shots over Jordan Spieth. Corey Conners has given himself a chance and is four back with Scottie Scheffler. Jon Rahm is one of three players five shots back and can’t be ruled out yet.

As we said yesterday in our blog, Louis has a lot of scar tissue in final rounds of majors despite being an Open champion. If the back nine was anything to go by, Louis will do well to hang on as he relied on a number of scrambles to keep his lead. He is still hitting plenty of fairways but 61.11% greens in regulation yesterday highlights some sloppy iron play and you would imagine he will have to improve on that to get the job done today.

Also going against Oosty’s chances is that Morikawa is his closest challenger. The young American has been fearless in contention in majors and WGC’s since his arrival on tour and he was slightly unfortunate not to be a shot or two better on his back nine after a sluggish start. We advised Morikawa yesterday at 9/2 and he still looks the value to us at 2/1 if you’re not already on.

Jordan Spieth finished terribly with a couple of sloppy bogeys to fall from joint leader to three shots back and we can’t help thing he’s lost too much momentum.  A missed two foot putt on the 18th was a real shock and he'll have been berating himself all evening. Odds of 11/2 appear extremely short and we would happily swerve that given who he has to catch.

Only Robert MacIntyre was able to better Corey Conners round of 66 yesterday and he’s now in a position where he can have a go with the pressure off. The Canadian led both greens in regulation and fairways hit yesterday so has to be respected. Scheffler will also have a ‘free hit’ tomorrow and both may just be at their most dangerous four back with no expectations. Conners at 28/1 would be preferred over the 20/1 of Scheffler if you want a bit of outside interest.

Jon Rahm finished five back and commented he wouldn’t like to be any more than five shots behind as catch up is hard with the current conditions. Our player profile of Rahm highlights how well he performs from off the pace, which led us to 11/1 final round success with him at The US Open, this would be the best of them all though. He will need help from the leaders but if he gets that he simply has to be respected.

We’re set for another hot day with temperatures reaching 26 degrees when the leaders tee off. The wind shouldn’t exceed 10mph and we should expect firm conditions once more to make for an exciting finale.

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