Antepost
The Basics
The Open Championship (incorrectly known as the British Open in the USA) is the only one of golf's Majors to be played outside the USA and is traditionally played on a links course. This year it returns to Royal St George's in England for the first time since 2011. It is a par 70 with only two par 5s (7th and 14th) and two very long par 3s (240+ yards). Winning scores when the Open was last played here in 2003 and 2011 were -1 and -5, so it's one of the harder venues.
"Royal St. George's is a different golf course. It is up-and-downey and it has some mounds in it and a lot of the fairways are mounded so it does repel golf shots. Tiger Woods"
2011 Recap
Only four players broke par and fan favourite Darren Clarke prevailed. Three rounds under par and a closing 70 saw post a 5 under par total and win by three. Ominously for this year's field, Dustin Johnson finished 2nd.
Round one conditions were calm with joint leaders Thomas Bjorn and Tom Lewis coming from different halves of the draw to post -5. The second round saw the wind pick up in the afternoon. Wind and rain were present for the third round, with the morning starters getting the worst of it and unable to make up ground on the leaders.
Clarke led by a shot going into the final round and although Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson kept him on his toes, a Johnson double bogey on 14 meant Clarke had a four shot lead with four holes to play.
Trends
Age
Only three of the last 12 Open winners were below 30. Experience counts for a lot and patience is a key requirement.
Major Virgins
Five of the last ten Open winners were winning their first Major.
Debutants
Ben Curtis won here in 2003 on his Open debut. Curtis was one of only two winners in the past 45 years who won on their Open debut (Tom Watson in 1975 was the other). Whilst unlikely, don't rule out a debutant winning at this quirky venue.
Prior Year Performance
Despite the strong trend for winners to have posted a top 10 at previous Opens, of the last eleven winners, seven missed the cut the previous year. In fact, no winner in the past 11 years has posted a top 25 at The Open the year before they won.
Momentum
Seven of the last 10 Open champions had won an event in their previous seven starts. Do not underestimate the importance of momentum.
World Ranking
In the last 20 years there have only been five winners outside the world top-50. However, the past two champions at Royal St George's (Ben Curtis in 2003 and Darren Clarke in 2011) were both outside the world's top 100. We know that the course offers a significant element of unpredictability as there are more mounds, bumps and hollows on Royal St George's than the other courses on the Open rota so it wouldn't be a surprise to see an unexpected name come away with the Claret Jug.
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: William Laidlaw Purves
Course Last Used: 2011
Type of Course: Links
Fairways: Undulating
Rough: Thick Fescue
Greens: xx
Water Hazards: None of note
Par 5's: 7th and 14th
Premium on: Ability to deal with wind
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
As with all Open Championships consider any draw bias due to weather.
Weather
Available the week of the tournament.
Trends
Winning Score
The last ten Open Championships have had winning scores ranging from -3 to -20. The weather plays a huge factor in determining the winning score.
Price of Winner
The last two winners at Royal St George's were in excess of 100/1
Correlating Courses
Links form is essential so consider form at other links events such as the Alfred Dunhill Links, Scottish Open and Irish Open.
Event Form
Of the last 15 Open Champions, 14 had recorded at least a top-9 finish at a previous Open before winning. Furthermore, each of the last 9 champions had made at least 4 appearances at The Open prior to winning, and 8 of the 9 had made at least 6 appearances prior to winning. Look for a player with proven Open experience.
Recent Form
Eight of the previous twelve winners had recorded a top 20 in their previous two events and seven of the past ten champions had recorded a win in their previous seven starts.
Nationality
An eclectic range of nationalities have won the Open in recent times.
Stats Analysis
With the fairways at Royal St George's designed to funnel balls into the rough, driving accuracy is less important on this course than other Open venues. Looking at the last two Opens held here, Greens in Regulation have been the most important stat with each of the top-3 last time here in 2011 finishing in the top-6 for greens in regulation.
Driving Distance
Shane Lowry ranked 52nd in 2019.
Driving Accuracy
Lowry was 44th in 2019 and that's not a huge deviation from the average in previous years.
Greens In Regulation
Lowry ranked 1st in 2019.
Scrambling
Six of the past seven champions have ranked inside the top 10. (However, it was notable Darren Clarke ranked 61st in this category on his way to winning in 2011.) Ability to scramble well is key here.
Putts per GIR
Lowry ranked 39th in 2019.
In Play
Tough Holes
Tiger Woods lost his ball from his opening tee shot in 2003 at Royal St George's so it's not a gentle opening hole. The 4th and 8th holes were the hardest in 2011.
Birdie Holes
The 7th hole was the only one that played under par in 2011. The 12th played to its par and it was the only other hole that didn't play over par.
Closing Stretch
The 18th ranked as the third hardest on the course in 2011, with 16 and 17 ranking as 14th and 10th hardest.
Fast or Slow Start
Every Open champion in the past 20 years has been within 5 shots after the first round. When the Open was last played here in 2003 and 2011, eventual winners Ben Curtis and Darren Clarke were 4 shots (13th) and 3 shots (6th) off the first round lead.
Just as it is important to be within touching distance after round 1, it is essential to keep pace at the Open as 80% of Open Champions in the past 50 years have been inside the top-10 at the halfway stage. When the Open was played here in 2003 Ben Curtis was 3 shots behind in 4th place after round 2. In 2011, Darren Clarke led after 36 holes.
75% of winners in the past 20 years have been within 3 shots with one round to go.
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