Preview
2023 Masters Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 6th April 2023
Course: Augusta National, USA
Par: 72
Length: 7,545 yards
2022 Champion: Scottie Scheffler
Course Info
Designer: Alister MacKenzie
Used Since: 1934
Fairways: Bentgrass
Rough: Bentgrass
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: On five holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 8th, 13th, 15th
Premium on: Approach play
The Basics
Augusta National is the annual host of The Masters tournament. It was originally designed by Alister MacKenzie but underwent a lengthening process in the early 2000's under the guidance of Tom Fazio. Augusta is a long course, made somewhat longer because the roll on the fairway is minimised due to the grass being cut into the player.
A player comfortable hitting a draw off the tee (or a fade for a left hander) is favoured given it offers a big advantage on holes 2, 10, 13 and 14. Augusta has severe greens, being extremely contoured and lightning fast.
2022 Masters Recap
Scottie Scheffler won by three shots, having entered the final round with a three stroke lead. Only nine players broke par.
Significant Info
The 13th hole has been extended by 35 yards.
The conditions in 2020 were somewhat different to a normal Masters so treat those results with caution.
Masters Weather 2023
Thursday: Light rain. Max wind 7mph.
Friday: Light rain. Max wind 7mph.
Saturday: Light rain. Max wind 6mph.
Sunday: Cloudy. Max wind 5mph.
Masters Trends
Winning Score
The last fifteen Masters tournaments have seen winning scores range from -5 to -20. However, only two of these years have seen a score better than -16.
Correlating Courses
Riviera CC, home of the Genesis Invitational, correlates nicely with Augusta.
Event Form
Nine of the last fourteen winners had posted a top 10 at Augusta prior to winning. Course form is essential.
Recent Form
Counts for a lot at the Masters, 13 of the past 14 champions had recorded a top 30 finish in their two events prior to winning.
Nationality
Americans have won eight of the past 14 but we've seen a range of nationalities succeed.
Age
Thirteen of the last fourteen winners were under the age of 40. The exception? Tiger Woods.
Defending Champion
In the past twelve years, only three defending champions (Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Adam Scott) have posted a top 25 finish. Spieth is the only player to have posted a top 10 when defending champion in the past eleven years.
Major Virgins
Nine of the past fourteen players to don the Green Jacket were claiming their first Major. However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America. Only two of the past fourteen champions did not have a previous PGA Tour/Major win.
Masters Exposure
Only two players in the last 43 years have won the Masters having not played at Augusta on the weekend the previous year. They were Patrick Reed in 2018 and Tiger Woods in 1997, two players who are pretty well versed in dealing with pressure situations. It's definitely preferential to back someone who has recent experience of a weekend at The Masters.
Debutants
"I can't think of another course in the world that the more you play, the more you learn." Jim Furyk
No Masters debutant has donned the green jacket since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Experience counts for a lot round Augusta. However, debutants can contend, particularly if they are a special talent. Jason Day and Jordan Spieth have both gone on to be World Number 1, and both finished 2nd on their Augusta debuts. Will Zalatoris finished 2nd in 2021 on his debut.
World Ranking
Thirteen of the past 14 champions have ranked inside the top 30 at the time of winning. Don't look too far down the rankings for a winner.
Stats Analysis
For many years there were no Strokes Gained stats available from The Masters but we have had access to Strokes Gained stats in recent years.
SG: Off The Tee
Scottie Scheffler ranked 9th last year.
Driving Distance
The last seven winners have ranked 8-6-44-6-6-32-52 (most recent first).
Driving Accuracy
Tiger Woods in 2019 was the only player to rank outside the top 30 for Driving Accuracy in the last seven years.
SG: Approach
Data from 15th Club (15thclub.com) indicates that winners here have excellent SG: Approach stats. Rankings of winners from 2019 to 2015 were 1-3-2-1-1. Data from last year tells us that the winner, Scottie Scheffler, ranked 6th in this metric.
Greens In Regulation
Only Dustin Johnson (13th) and Patrick Reed (21st) have finished outside the top 10 for Greens In Regulation in the past seven years.
Putts per GIR
Every winner in the last six years has ranked inside the top 20.
SG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler ranked 13th for SG: Putting at last year's Masters.
In-Play
Tough Holes
In 2022 the 11th was the hardest on the course. The 18th and 5th ranked as the 2nd and 3rd hardest holes.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5s score the four easiest every year and it is vital to play these well. They were the only holes to average under par at last year's Masters.
Closing Stretch
The 17th and 18th were 8th and 2nd hardest at Augusta National last year.
Fast or Slow Start
Augusta is not a course to play catch up so a good start is vital. Every winner in the past 11 years has been inside the top 11 after round one. The position of the last 11 winners after round 1 was: 2-1-11-4-4-9-1-2-10-4-7 (most recent first).
The last 32 winners have been inside the Top-5 going into the final round. Even then, if you are more than 2 shots back it's going to be an uphill struggle as 22 of the last 25 winners have been within 2 going into the final round. Twenty eight of the last 31 winners have played in the final group on Sunday.
Previous Masters Tips & Blogs
You can access our historical Players Championship tips using the links below:
2022
2021
2020
2023 Masters Tips
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In-play
The Masters 2023 In-Play Picks & Blog
9th April 2023, 9:40am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Koepka (thru 6) |
-13 |
| Rahm (thru 6) |
-9 |
| Bennett (thru 6) |
-6 |
| Four Players Tied |
-5 |
2023 Masters Round 2/3 Summary
The players managed to finish round two where Jon Rahm closed the gap to two shots. They then managed to play the first six holes with Koepka opening up a four shot lead. Play was stopped on the 7th green due to heavy rain and this hole could change the dynamic of the leaderboard as Koepka has an 11ft putt for par and Rahm has a 9ft putt for birdie.
Notable 2023 Masters Round 2/3 Quotes
"Early this morning it was very cold. We enjoyed a couple holes without any rain, but there was a couple, those two holes at the end, 17 and 18 were two absolute monsters. Very happy to finish those even par. Kind of kept it going the rest of the day. You know, just too bad I couldn't save at least one par on 4 or 5. 5, actually I hit two good putts and it is what it is, right, that hole's playing extremely long. 500 yards in pouring rain is going to be very long. So very happy with the way I finished. I made a great swing on 6 and great two swings on 7. So feeling confident, playing good golf and there's a lot to be played." Jon Rahm
"I'm not too concerned about playing 29 holes or however many holes we've got left. It's part of the deal. I'm pretty sure I'll be up for it considering it is the Masters. So I don't think anybody should have a problem with that." Brooks Koepka
2023 Masters Round 3/4 Weather
The good news is no more rain or thunder is forecast, meaning we should be able to finish today! It will be a cold morning around 7 degrees before picking up to 16 degrees in the afternoon. The wind looks set to play a big part, consistently blowing at around 15mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Brooks Koepka has shortened to 10/11 but we're not so sure he should be odds on given the real possibility of a two shot swing on the 7th. Koepka had several loose drives in his first seven holes and was lucky to 1 under par through six. Perhaps understandably given the conditions, Koepka's driving wasn't as good yesterday and he'll need to drive the ball better today.
Rahm has also shortened since yesterday, coming in form 2/1 to 6/4 and this is a direct result of none of the chasers doing anything and it looks more of a two horse race now. Rahm's short game wasn't as strong as Brooks yesterday but he looked more comfortable off the tee. He may handle the colder conditions better to finish off round three and we can see him closing the gap to one or two shots.
Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland remain the most likely of the chasers to mount a challenge and you can get 33/1 on either. Both were poor yesterday, one over par for their rounds so far although Hovland does have a 9ft putt for birdie on the 8th whilst Morikawa can only par. It's hard to see either mounting a challenge due to the strength of the leaders.
If the wind proves to make life difficult on the course, Patrick Cantlay and Matt Fitzpatrick will be well postitioned having played several more holes. Fitzpatrick still has the 13th to play but has played 10 and 11. He is usually comfortable in the wind and rates the best price of the chasers at 40/1.
Where is the value?
It's usually not too sensible to back against the leaders at Augusta and that argument is even stronger with a fit Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm well clear. We consider Rahm a better price than Brooks currently though neither are suitably priced to advise a bet on them. The market to turn to may be 'without Koepka and Rahm' which is wide open. Skybet and Betfair Exchange are offering odds on this.
Round 3 Bets
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8th April 2023, 9:40am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Koepka |
-12 |
| Rahm (thru 9) |
-9 |
| Bennett |
-8 |
| Morikawa |
-6 |
| Hovland |
-6 |
| Four players tied |
-5 |
2023 Masters Round 2 Summary
Brooks Koepka made the most of perfect morning conditions to take a four shot lead before the afternoon starters begun their round. Jon Rahm was able to eat into that lead before play was suspended for the day with lightening in the area. The Spaniard is now three back of Koepka.
Notable Masters Round 2 Quotes
"Yeah, everybody coming into the week was, yeah, hope you get Low Am. That's pretty much all they were saying. I just wanted to put two good rounds up. I knew my golf was good enough to compete out here. I found myself in a situation that now I've got a golf tournament that I can go out and win." Sam Bennett
" Yeah, it was really solid. Didn't really do too much wrong. Maybe the speed kind of got me on a few putts. Wasn't hitting them hard enough there towards the end, but striking the ball really well and leaving it in good spots." Brooks Koepka
"I haven't put it all together quite yet, but pretty thrilled with the 6-under, back-to-back 69s. I just found out that I've only made two bogeys, so that's a good thing obviously out here at Augusta. Just kind of managing my game piece by piece, putting it in the right spots, and I've just got to convert a few of those extra birdies, and we'd be closer to 10." Collin Morikawa
2023 Masters Round 2 Weather
The weather forecast is grim for Saturday's play, with heavy rain forecast all day. It is possible that barely any golf is played, which would mean the players finishing off their second rounds on Sunday with a Monday finish needed.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Brooks Koepka is now 6/4 favourite and the only man that looks likely to stop him is Jon Rahm. There has ben a lot of chat about the cold weather today affecting his 'new' knee but it has to be likely he doesn't play much golf today and it is due to warm up a little on Sunday/ Monday. Had Brooks putting been hot over the first two days, he would have been out of sight by now and his ball striking looks in superb shape.
Rahm is 2/1 and faces a tough two putt on the 10th when he returns to the course. The quality of Brooks play and the uncertainties surrounding the conditions Rahm will finish his second round is enough to put us off the 2/1 but he remains a big threat to Koepka with this increasingly looking like a two horse race.
Collin Morikawa is the favourite from the rest of the pack at 16/1 and he appears to be six shots back without having his A-game. Should Brooks stumble in round three, Morikawa could find himself in with a shot but it's not a bet for us.
Where is the value?
The story remains the same - much will depend on the weather. If the players are able to get back on the course today, they are going to face cold, wet and windy conditions, although it must be said the greens will be much more receptive too.
If there is no play today, they will come back on Sunday morning to cold, dry and breezy conditions. You have to think those in the clubhouse are at an advantage and Brooks Koepka is going to take a lot of beating from here. With no 2/3 balls to bet on today, it may be best to just take a watching brief and let today run it's course before any further bets.
Round 2 Bets
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7th April 2023, 8:05am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Rahm |
-7 |
| Hovland |
-7 |
| Koepka |
-7 |
| Young |
-5 |
| Day |
-5 |
| Seven players tied |
-4 |
2023 Masters Round 1 Summary
Jon Rahm four putted the first hole to open with a double bogey but he overcame that start to post a round of 65 and share the first round lead with Viktor Hovland and Brooks Koepka. Receptive greens and little breeze saw players score well throughout the day and 36 players broke par.
Notable Round 1 Masters Round 2 Quotes
"I don't want to sound like a broken record, but the fact every single putt felt good makes it easier. It not like I had the right line and the right read and made a poor stroke. All of them felt good. That's always a lot easier. Then I remembered Seve's quote, I think it was here at the Masters, right, when he 4-putted. I just kept thinking to myself, "Well, I miss, I miss, I miss, I make." Move on to the next. I carried a little bit of that negative energy into the tee shot on 2, hit it about ten yards further than I usually do and moved on with my day. Again, if you're going to make a double-bogey, might as well do it on the first hole of the tournament when you have plenty of holes to make it up." Jon Rahm
" I don't think my score really gives me much of an advantage. I think maybe my tee time with the weather coming up, I think I might be able to squeak out a few more holes than everybody else before it starts dumping. I would say that's probably the biggest advantage I've got going for me right now." Brooks Koepka
"The few weeks that I've had at home the last two months, I would say it's been really cold, and I've played with three, four layers in 30-degree weather and blowing 30. I've definitely had enough practice in those types of conditions. But I haven't played Augusta National in that type of weather, so that will be interesting to see how that goes." Viktor Hovland
2023 Masters Round 2 Weather
Tee times have been moved forward 30 mins to try and counteract the poor weather forecast later in the day. Those players out early may well have the best of conditions as the forecast is due to be dry until midday local time and then there is a possibility of thunder and/or rain for the rest of the day.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jon Rahm is a best price 7/2 and his performance yesterday certainly merits favouritism. His comeback from an awful start is certainly to be commended and it's perhaps worrying for the field that the Spaniard appeared to be completely unphased by it. Rahm will need to draw upon that positive mental attitude given he is set to play in the second last group in round two and it's likely he'll have to play much of his second round in wet conditions. For that reason we won't be backing him at the odds.
World number two, Scottie Scheffler, can be backed at a general 5/1. The defending champion opened with a credible round of 68 and can't be written off. Scheffler finds himself with a mid-morning tee time and should at least get some of the front nine in before any potential weather interruptions.
Brooks Koepka is widely available at 7/1 and that's not an unattractive price. Winner in Orlando last week, he set up numerous birdie chances inside 10ft and could easily have been several shots better off. He has an early morning tee time (5th group out) today and will have the opportunity to set a score.
Where is the value?
Much will depend on the weather. Four of the last five winners of The Masters have been inside the top four after the opening round and with a front three of Rahm, Hovland and Koepka, you'd certainly expect one of them to go very close. However, conditions will undoubtedly have a say on who dons the green jacket on Sunday (or Monday!). It's likely the players with later tee times in round two will have to play some of their second round on Saturday but Saturday's forecast is heavy rain. If the course is playable that is potentially a huge disadvantage, but will the course be playable?
In summary, those players who are out early today will at least get a few hours of dry conditions. They are the players who feature in our thinking.
Round 2 Bets
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