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Soudal Open 2024

 

 

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2024 Soudal Open Tips

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Event Info

Starts: 23rd May 2024
Course: Rinkven International GC
Par: 71 (36-35)
Length: 6,940 yards
2023 Champion: Simon Forsstrom

Soudal Open Course Info

Designer: Paul Rolin
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2018
Fairways: Average, flat.
Greens: 80% Bentgrass, 20% POA
Par 5's: 5th & 17th
Premium on: Tee to Green and Recent Form

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

This course was used for the Belgian Knockout event held on the European Tour in 2018 and 2019. Those events were 36 holes of stroke play followed by 9 hole knockout matches over the weekend.

The course was also used for the Telenet Trophy on the Challenge Tour in 2010 and hosted the European Amateur Championship in 2005.

This week's course has thirteen par 4s!

Soudal Open Trends

Winning Score
Simon Forsstrom won with -17 in 2023 whilst Sam Horsfield won in 2022 with a score of 13 under par.

Correlating Courses 

Forsstrom had record a top 10 in India at the DLF course which seems a good course fit. Yannik Paul and Jorge Campillo have top 5's at both courses too

Last year's winner, Sam Horsfield, recorded 3rd and 8th place finishes in Kenya in 2021.  Ewen Ferguson, who threw away a good chance at winning in Kenya last year, was 4th at the 2018 Belgian Knockout whilst still a Challenge Tour player.  Look to Muthaiga GC as a possible course correlation.

Course Form
Forsstrom was making his course debut in 2023. Horsfield had played the Belgian Knockout in 2018 and 2019 without much success. Neither Migliozzi nor Otaegui had played the course before their wins at the Belgian Knockout.

Recent Form
Forsstrom arrived in average form with a 32nd on his last start, similar to Horsfield in 2022 who had finished 21st on previous start. Otaegui arrived in hot form including a 2nd on his previous start and Migliozzi also arrived in consistent form having won earlier in the season also.  Leaders after halfway, Chris Paisley and Jorge Campillo, were also in strong form coming into the events in 2018/19.  Recent form does appear to be important.

Soudal Open Stats Analysis

SG: Tee to Green
In 2023, Forsstrom ranked 3rd.  Three of the top five were inside the top 15 for SG: Tee to Green in 2022.

SG: Off The Tee
None of the leaders ranked better than 29th last year. In 2022, Oliver Bekker was the only player inside the top five to rank inside the top 50 for strokes gained off the tee. 

Driving Accuracy
In 2023, none of the three leaders ranked better than 50th. None of the top five in 2022 ranked inside the top 40 for Driving Accuracy.

Driving Distance
In 2022, Sam Horsfield was the only player in the top five who ranked inside the top 30 for Driving Distance. None of the three leaders did in 2023.

SG: Approach
Two of the top three ranked inside the top 25 last year. Three of 2022's top five ranked inside the top six for SG: Approach. 

SG: Around The Green
Both Dantorp and Forsstrom ranked inside the top 10 in this category. None of last 2022's top five ranked inside the top 40 for SG: Around the green.

SG: Putting
The top three in 2023 ranked 33-11-2. Four of 2022's top five ranked inside the top twelve for SG: Putting.

Soudal Open Quotes

"This wind swirls about 380 times a day here so that is one of the difficult parts. It is really narrow and it’s not short but it’s shortish, but it just makes it quite tricky." Thomas Pieters, 2022

"It is very similar, a Wentworth or Sunningdale vibe out here, and it hasn’t rained in the last five weeks so it is going to be really firm, greens are looking brilliant, so I think it is going to be a good test. Probably not a lot of driver off the tee, but a lot of irons and precise irons into the greens." Thomas Detry, 2022

"I got to play nine holes today and I am heading out to play the other nine this afternoon. It is tight off the tee, you need to be accurate, and the grass is very, very dry, so if the greens dry up anymore, I did see a lot of undulation on them and some tricky up and downs, so accuracy off the tee is really crucial. I think there is also big difference between catching the green in two or missing it, most of the time it seems like a hard up and down, and if you are putting for a birdie it makes a big difference." Rafa Cabrera Bello, 2022

"I have had two goes around this golf course before, once for the Belgian Knockout in 2019 and once before I played a European Amateur Championship here in 2003 or 04, different routing of the course but I kind of like it. It’s bouncy, its old school, tight and treelined. You want to hit the fairway because in the rough you get the flyers and the greens won’t hold the ball, so with a bit of wind it is going to add up to an interesting week." Bernd Wiesberger, 2022

"This is a golf course where positioning is quite important off the tee and I was able to position it nicely to give myself a lot of good looks." Sam Horsfield, 2022

"It all depends on how you approach the tee shots. You can take the course on but it is risk and reward for a lot of them. It’s a golf course like a parkland you play back at home, where it gets very dry on the fairways and the greens firm but it’s quite lush around the edges, so you have to make sure the ball is under control.” Callum Shinkwin, 2022

"This is a golf course where you feel like, regardless of how you are playing that you’ve got lots of chances, you can always manage to get a couple of irons in the fairway and still give yourself some wedges, and the greens are rolling lovely and you can hole some putts around here." Ryan Fox, 2022

Soudal Open In Play Advice

Birdie Holes
The 5th, 16th and 17th played the easiest last year.

Hard Holes
The 10th hole was the hardest hole last year, closely followed by the 13th.  

Fast or Slow Start

In 2023, Simon Forsstrom and Jens Dantorp were 1st and 2nd after round one and finished that way. 

In 2022, Sam Horsfield led after the opening round and the players who finished second, Yannik Paul and Ryan Fox, also made fast starts with rounds of 66 and 68.

Closing Stretch
The 16th is a driveable 344 yard par four, the 17th is a 568 yard par 5 and the 18th is a 424 yard par four. 

2024 Soudal Open Tips

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In-play

Soudal Open In-Play Blog

25 May 2024, 9:25pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
N Elvira -18
Fisher -14
Langasque -14
Dean -14
Norgaard -14

2024 Soudal Open Round 4 Conditions

Rain showers and soft conditions.

2024 Soudal Open Round 4 Weather Bias?

Cloudy with light showers in the morning then becoming partly sunny and breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely in the mid to late afternoon. Earlier starters may get a few hours of better conditions. 

Round 4 Outright Market Summary

Nacho Elvira's lead is now four as he bids to win for the second time on the DP World Tour.  A proven front runner, the Spaniard's only other win on Tour came at the 2021 Cazoo Open, an event he led from wire to wire, but it should also be noted he lost a six shot lead in the final round before  winning the playoff. As we said yesterday, Elvira relinquished a good opportunity to win when leading by one at the 2023 Made in Himmerland.  

The chasing pack however doesn't inspire confidence - Langasque and Moller haven't been convincing in contention lately and Ross Fisher hasn't had a top 5 finish in over 5 years. Joe Dean was impressive in contention in Kenya this year and looks the value of the players in T2nd at 18/1.

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices

None of note.

Soudal Open Round 4 Bets

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24 May 2024, 5:25pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
N Elvira -14
Fisher -13
Langasque -11
Four Players Tied -10

2024 Soudal Open Round 2 Conditions

As expected, those out in the afternoon played in the tougher conditions, with the rain causing more of a problem.  Only three (Joe Dean, Sam Jones and Aaron Cockerill) of the top ten players on the leaderboard played AM-PM in rounds one and two.

2024 Soudal Open Round 3 Weather Bias?

Heavy rain is forecast for the duration of Saturday, so all players are likely to need to make the best of tough conditions.

Round 3 Outright Market Summary

Nacho Elvira heads up the betting and is 5/2 to win for the second time on the DP World Tour.  A proven front runner, the Spaniard's only other win on Tour came at the 2021 Cazoo Open, an event he led from wire to wire.  Elvira held the 54 hole lead for all three of his Challenge Tour wins in 2015 and is certainly respected given how well he's playing.

Elvira backers will take heart from the fact that each of the last two winners of this event have led at the halfway stage.  However, it should be noted that Elvira relinquished a good opportunity to win from this position at the 2023 Made in Himmerland.  He was also notably poor when leading at halfway at last year's Kenya Open, going on to finish 40th.  This event is not a foregone conclusion, especially with plenty of rain in the forecast over the next two days.

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices

None of note.

Soudal Open Round 3 Bets

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23 May 2024, 9:25pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Jones -9
Jordan -7
Wilson -7
 N Elvira  -7
Langasque -7
Norgaard -7
Syme -6
Seven Players Tied  -5

2024 Soudal Open Round 1 Conditions

Minimal wind and dry conditions meant players went low on day one.  Sam Jones shot 28 on his back nine to open up a two shot lead at the top of the leaderboard.

2024 Soudal Open Round 2 Weather Bias?

Heavy rain is forecast late afternoon so the earlier the better for round two tee times.

Round 2 Outright Market Summary

Romain Langasque is 17/2 favourite, which is understandable given his opening round of 64 and an early tee time in round two. However, if we take Sam Jones out of the equation, there are 45 players within three shots of the players at seven under par and this is still a wide open contest.  Langasque isn't the most dependable player to back at the best of times, so sub 10/1 isn't a price that interests us.

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices

Lukas Nemecz TOP AUSTRIAN 11/5 @ Bet365 
This is essentially a two runner market given Mathias Schwab shot an opening round of 80 and is 4,500/1 to win.  Nemecz is only one shot behind Wiesberger but enjoys a morning tee time whilst his compatriot will tee off at 1.30pm in the afternoon and likely play in some of the wetter weather.  Nemecz was 4th last week on the Alps Tour and was 12th in round one for greens in regulation.

Soudal Open Round 2 Bets

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