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This week's tips

SDC Championship 2023

 



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2023 SDC Championship Tips

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Event Info

Starts: 16th March 2023
Course: St Francis Links, South Africa
Par: 72
Length: 7,167 yards
2022 Champion: New event

Course Info

Designer: Jack Nicklaus
Course Type: Links
Last hosted: N/A
Fairways: Wide
Par 5's: 3rd, 6th, 13th and 16th
Premium on: Distance

Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This is a new event on the DP World Tour.

St Francis Links has hosted a number of events on the Sunshine Tour in recent years.  Most recently, the 2021 and 2022 PGA Championship and the 2022 Vodacom Origins of Golf.

Weather Forecast

A very windy forecast, proceed with caution!

Thursday: Sunny with wind blowing in excess of 30mph and gusts in excess of 40mph.
Friday: Sunny intervals with wind 25-30mph and gusts in excess of 35mph.
Saturday: Sunny intervals with the wind peaking at 15mph.
Sunday: Sunny intervals with the wind peaking at 15mph.

Trends

Winning score
Winning scores on the Sunshine Tour were -17 and -15 for the 72 hole events.  The Vodacom Origins of Golf event was a 54 hole event and won with a score of -13.  We should expect a score of between -14 and -18.

Course form
Bear in mind many of the South African players will have the advantage of course knowledge this week.

Stats Analysis

We don't have stats from the events played at St Francis on the Sunshine Tour but we can look at the profiles of the winners to gather some clues.

Driving Accuracy
None of the three course winners rank inside the top 60 for Driving Accuracy in 2022/23 on the Sunshine Tour.  Indeed, Ruan Korb and Dean Burmester rank outside the top 150 in this statistic.

Driving Distance
Distance appears to be advantageous with two of the three course winners (Ruan Korb and Dean Burmester) ranking inside the top 10 in Driving Distance for 2022/23 on the Sunshine Tour.  George Coetzee is no slouch off the tee either and so distance off the tee is favoured.

Greens in Regulation
None of the three course winners ranked inside the top 30 in the season long Greens in Regulation stats for 2021/22 (there are no stats for 2022/23 for Burmester and Coetzee). 

SDC Championship In-Play Advice

Tough Holes
The 9th hole is expected to play as one of the harder holes.

Birdie Holes
The four par 5 holes, along with the short par 4 12th hole will all offer up birdie opportunities.

Fast or Slow Start

Dean Burmester was 16th after the opening round of the 2021 PGA Championship, six shots off the pace.  Conversely, George Coetzee was first round leader when winning here at the 2022 PGA Championship.

 

2023 SDC Championship Tips

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In-play

2023 SDC Championship In-Play Blog

18th March 2023, 7:45pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Johannessen (thru 13) -11
Baldwin (thru 13) -11
Brown -9
Luiten -9
Dantorp (thru 14) -9
Lawrence -8

2023 SDC Championship Round 3 Summary

Kristian Krogh Johannessen and Matthew Baldwin top the leaderboard with five holes remaining of their third round at the SDC Championship.  Johannessen had a storming finish to his second round and was three clear through 36 holes before being caught by Baldwin in round three.

Notable Round 3 SDC Championship Quotes

No round 3 quotes available at time of publication.

2023 SDC Championship Round 4 Weather

Cloudy. Wind 15-20mph with gusts in excess of 25mph later in the afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Kristian Krogh Johannessen is 11/4 favourite.  The Norwegian won the Italian Challenge Open on the Challenge Tour last year but has a less impressive record when leading, having failed to convert both of his last two 54 hole leads on the Challenge Tour.  Much will depend on how he finishes his second round but he's a favourite we are keen to take on.

Matthew Baldwin hasn't had the most impressive record either when in contention recently and odds of 3/1 make very little appeal.  The Englishman has dropped down the leaderboard in five of his last six efforts in contention and when he last led through three rounds (at the 2022 British Challenge on the Challenge Tour), he slipped to 3rd place on the final leaderboard.

Where is the value?

With both leaders looking for their first DP World Tour win and demonstrating vulnerabilities in contention, we could see the winner coming from off the pace.  The wind looks like it will be significantly stronger later in the day and it certainly won't be an easy finish for the leaders.  

 

Round 4 Bets

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+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

17th March 2023, 8:05pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Brun -8
Dantorp -7
Venter -7
Baldwin -7
Three Players Tied -5

2023 SDC Championship Round 2 Summary

The morning starters enjoyed calmer conditions but the breeze picked up as the day went on and play was suspended early in the afternoon due to the strength of the wind.  Julien Brun holds a one stroke lead overnight.

Notable Round 2 SDC Championship Quotes

"Comparing the wind from yesterday to today, obviously it was a lot less, so it made conditions a bit easier out there.  I was playing really well, hitting the ball pretty nicely apart from one tee shot on eleven." Albert Venter

"Very different. It's the first time for me that I've seen the course without wind. It was definitely a lot more receptive and the greens were better as well so you could make more birdies and just have more fun out there." Julien Brun

2023 SDC Championship Round 3 Weather

Sunny intervals. Wind 12-16mph with gusts in excess of 20mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Julien Brun has shortened to 18/5 after his round of 67.  Brun ranks 2nd in Greens in Regulation out of those players who completed their second round, so he's certainly playing well enough to win this week.  However, he's been weak in contention since stepping up to the DP World Tour last year and we aren't keen on backing him at such short odds.

Jordan Smith got off to a fast start in his second round before play was halted and he is priced up as 12/1 second favourite.  He has 12 holes of his second round remining to eat into Brun's lead and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him pull within two or three of Brun by the time he completes 36 holes.

Where is the value?

Those players yet to finish their second round will have the opportunity to post some birdies when play resumes tomorrow morning.  Although they likely won't enjoy the calm conditions players had on Friday morning, it will certainly be less breezy than when play was suspended.  Look to the players at three or four under par to make a move.

 

Round 3 Bets

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+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

16th March 2023, 8:05pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Ravetto -5
Johannessen -5
Syme -4
Five Players Tied -3

2023 SDC Championship Round 1 Summary

Round one saw the players tested with some strong winds.  Only eight players broke 70.

Notable Round 1 SDC Championship Quotes

"It was a really nice morning - the wake-up call was pretty hard but I played really solid golf in windy conditions and I’m really happy with my game. It’s a really nice track, it needs the wind because without the wind in nice conditions it will be… I won’t say easy but a bit easier." David Ravetto

2023 SDC Championship Round 2 Weather

Sunny intervals. Wind 8-14mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Julien Brun is 9/1 favourite after the opening round.  The Frenchman shot the best score of any of the afternoon starters in round one and will have an opportunity to post a score when he starts early in round two.  We're in no rush to back anyone at single figure odds though and we're happy to pass over him.

Joost Luiten is 10/1 second favourite but he starts his 2nd round at 12.30pm local time and he'll have to contend with some stronger winds towards the end of his 2nd round.  He too is passed over in favour of others further down the leaderboard.

Where is the value?

With seven of the top eight playing in the morning today, and the wind due to pick up later tomorrow afternoon, morning starters in round two are preferred.

 

Round 2 Bets

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