Preview
Course Info
Designer: Tom Doak
Type of Course: Modern links
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Thick in places
Greens: Fescue
Par 5's: 3rd, 7th, 10th and 16th.
Premium on: Approach play/Links ability
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This is a co-sanctioned event with the PGA Tour and as such, attracts a stellar field this year.
The weather in 2020 was bad and many players struggled. With conditions set to be fair this week, don't be put off if anyone struggled in the wind and rain in 2020.
Many players will be using this week as a warm up for next week's Open Championship.
Weather Forecast
Looks set to be dry most of the week with a reasonable breeze each day.
Thursday
Sunny intervals and breezy. Wind 11-18mph
Friday
Sunny intervals and breezy. Wind 12-16mph
Saturday
Sunny intervals and breezy. Wind 11-15mph
Sunday
Sunny intervals and breezy. Wind 11-15mph
Trends
Winning score
Winning scores the past three years have been hugely different due to weather conditions. Aaron Rai won with -11 in 2020 after horrendous weather on the Saturday. Bernd Wiesberger won with -22 in 2019 and Min Woo Lee won with a score of -22 last year. Expect a winning score in the high teens.
Winning Profile
Since this event has been staged at Renaissance Club, the three winners have been 240th, 183rd and 83rd in the world rankings. However, with a stronger field this year, we are less likley to see a shock winner.
Correlating Courses
Although different courses have been used, past winners have a solid bank of Irish Open performances. Not something to hang your hat on but of interest.
Course form
Rai had missed the cut in 2019 and Min Woo Lee had finished 30th in his only previous course appearance. There's no obvious preference towards course form.
Recent form
Min Woo Lee was 17th on his last start before winning. Both winners prior to him had been runner up in their last start. Recent form appears to be a huge bonus.
Nationality
No obvious nationality traits.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
Lee was 58th, Rai was 17th and Wiesberger 50th. A solid driver is preferred but not essential.
Driving Distance
26-62-29. Distance isn't essential.
Driving Accuracy
99-29-48. Driving Accuracy isn't perceived as essential but as always, it helps.
SG: Approach
Lee was 28th, Rai was 26th and Wiesberger was 3rd. Strong iron play is important.
Greens in Regulation
36-5-30. Confirms the importance of strong iron play.
SG: Around The Green
Lee was 4th, Rai was 12th but Wiesberger was 81st. A bonus but not essential.
SG: Putting
20-36-32. You need to at least to solid with the putter to win here.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 18th hole played as the 6th toughest last year but was 2nd toughest in 2020 and toughest in 2019. The 2nd played the toughest the past two years. The 8th, 9th and 11th have all featured in the top 5 hardest holes the past two years.
Birdie Holes
The par 5s all played under par and the short par 4 5th hole played 3rd easiest last year.
Fast or Slow Start
Neither of the three champions at The Renaissance have been inside the top 26 after Round 1. Bernd Wiesberger led from halfway onwards in 2019 but Aaron Rai was 28th after 36 holes and 10th after 54 holes. However, conditions in Round 3 in 2020 were awful so we should remember that the results that year should be treated with a degree of caution.
Closing stretch
The 16th offers an easy birdie but the final two holes played as the 9th and 6th hardest in 2021.
In-play
Scottish Open In-Play Blog
9 July 2022, 11:55pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Schauffele |
-7 |
Cabrera Bello |
-5 |
Spieth |
-4 |
Palmer |
-4 |
J Smith |
-4 |
Tringale |
-3 |
Fitzpatrick |
-3 |
Smalley |
-3 |
Round 3 Summary
Xander Schauffele opened up a four shot lead following a birdie at the 16th but bogeys at the last two holes reduced his advantage to two shots.
Round 3 Weather
Sunny with wind expected to blow 10-12mph throughout the day.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Xander Schauffele is the even money favourite and it's hard to make a case for opposing him. Not only does he lead by two but he also leads the field in SG: Tee to Green this week.
His play this week is no flash in the pan either. Wins at the JP McManus Pro-Am and the Travelers Championship in the past few weeks indicate just how well he's playing and his confidence will be sky high.
Before we rush into backing Schauffele, it's worth noting that only one of the three 3rd round leaders at Renaissance Club have gone on to win. We've seen how easy it is to make bogeys over the closing holes and if one of the chasers posts a score in the clubhouse that may well test Schauffele's resolve.
Jordan Spieth is next in the betting at 13/2 and can't be discounted. His win at the RBC Heritage earlier this year came from behind and he certainly has the potential to catch Schauffele. Whether he can keep the bogeys off his card is another matter. He's dropped more shots than any other player in the top five this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick (11/1), Jordan Smith (12/1) and Rafa Cabrera Bello (12/1) are the only other players priced up below 20/1. Fitzpatrick would be our pick of those three given his recent US Open win and the momentum gained from playing the last three holes in two under par.
Where is the value?
We see Schauffele as the most likely winner now but we think there's a better bet to be had in the two ball market.
Round 4 Bets
- 2.5pts Sebastian Soderberg to beat Justin Harding 11/8 @ Bet365
Soderberg has bettered Harding's score in each of the last two days and has performed better tee to green this week. Harding has been one of the worst performers tee to green this week (2nd last SG: Tee to Green of those who made the cut) and failed to make a single birdie in the 3rd round. Soderberg didn't have a great 3rd round either but he's playing far better tee to green and there shouldn't be such a price difference between the players. Boylesports have Soderberg priced up at 11/10, the 11/8 with Bet365 is too big.
8 July 2022, 9:55pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Tringale |
-7 |
Woodland |
-4 |
Ghim |
-4 |
Kitayama |
-3 |
Smith |
-3 |
Schauffele |
-3 |
Fitzpatrick |
-3 |
Round 2 Summary
Cameron Tringale retained his three shot lead despite a wobble in the middle of his round. To his credit, he recovered from five bogeys in six holes to play his final eight holes in level par. The wind was constant throughout the day, causing players problems all day.
Round 3 Weather
Sunny intervals with wind expected to blow 10-12mph throughout the day.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Cameron Tringale remains favourite and is a best price 9/2. As we indicated yesterday, he's winless in over 300 starts as a professional and we aren't keen to back him at such a short price.
Matt Fitzpatrick and Xander Schauffele are next in the betting at 5/1 and 11/2 respectively. These two make far more appeal than the market favourite, both having been in excellent form of late. Schauffele narrowly missed out on selection for subscribers so it would be frustrating to see him go on and win. He is expected to be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
It's a similar story for Matt Fitzpatrick. The US Open champion was in sensational form early in round two before dropping shots on his final two holes. Like Schauffele, he's expected to feature on the final leaderboard but it's too early to be taking odds of 5/1.
Where is the value?
We still remain of the opinion that the leader is to be taken on. There are 18 players in the group from -4 to level par and this tournament remains wide open.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Brandon Wu 200/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Brandon tops the SG: Approach stats for the opening two rounds. That strong approach play has allowed him to rank 3rd SG: Tee to Green over the opening two rounds and he's clearly playing really nicely. He's only two shots off the each way places and there's every chance he can net us one of those places (or even a win) at big odds.
- 0.5pts Each Way Ashun Wu 300/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-4)
It's a Wu double for us as we complete our bets ahead of the third round with Ashun Wu. A four time winner on the DP World Tour, Ashun is often disrespected by the bookmakers. A solid wind player, he shot a fine round of 68 in round two and can carry that momentum into the weekend. All aspects of his game are in solid shape and he too is capable of snatching an each way place.
7 July 2022, 6:55pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Tringale |
-9 |
Woodland |
-6 |
Harding |
-5 |
Kitayama |
-5 |
R Hojgaard |
-4 |
Pereira |
-4 |
Eight players tied |
-3 |
Round 1 Summary
Cameron Tringale holds a three shot lead after a stunning round of 61 in the calmer morning conditions. The wind picked up considerably in the afternoon and no player was able to better 4 under par from the late starters. The average score in the morning was 70.39 whilst it was 73.60 in the afternoon.
Round 2 Weather
Sunny intervals with wind expected to blow 14-18mph throughout the day.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Cameron Tringale is 9/2 favourite but he's yet to win as as professional in over 300 starts. His performances under pressure leave a lot to be desired and even with an early three stroke lead, he doesn't hold any appeal.
Jon Rahm and Gary Woodland are joint second favourites at 9/1 with Sam Burns tucked in behind at 10/1. The wind looks like it will blow quite strongly for all three of these players tomorrow afternoon so taking single figure odds doesn't interest us at this stage.
Where is the value?
We want to take on Cameron Tringale and there is one price we can't ignore. None of the three champions at the Renaissance Club have been inside the top 26 after the opening round, so backing players who got off to a slower start isn't the worst strategy.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.75pts Each Way Kurt Kitayama 50/1 @ Livescore Bet (1/5 1-5)
Kurt posted the best score of the afternoon starters in round 1 and has a morning tee time tomorrow. A two time winner on the DP World Tour, he's had a stellar season on the PGA Tour, posting a couple of top three finishes. He's more than comfortable in the wind, both his wins coming at windy venues. He's too big at 50/1 and there's no reason why he can't win this week.