Preview

Course Info

Type of Course - Modern Links
Course Designer -Denis Griffiths/Sam Torrance
Par 5's - 3rd, 6th, 12th and 18th.
Hosted Since - New Event

Weather Forecast

Summary

Forecast for the week looks relatively consistent with cloudy conditions interspersed with sunshine. There is no rain forecast and wind shouldn't exceed 15mph on any day. Neither side of the draw should get any advantage but be aware conditions will be cold every morning with temperatures below 6 degrees until midday.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

 

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. There has already been one positive test for Covid-19 (Jbe Kruger)

Trends

Winning score

We have no previous events to draw upon to make a prediction regarding winning score.

Course form

Some of the holes were used for Open Qualifying last year but the other course at Fairmont was largely used.

Incoming form

We should value recent form highly given the lack of course form.

Nationality

Whilst this event and course are new to the European Tour, the Alfred Dunhill Links has historically been staged in this area at this time of year. It is worth noting that 13 of the last 19 winners of that event hailed from the UK & Ireland.

Stats Analysis

With no previous events here, we have no stats analysis.

In Play

Tough Holes

The long par 4s (2nd and 10th) are expected to cause difficulty. All the par 3s can stretch to 190+ yards so will be tricky also.

Birdie Holes

The short par 4s (4th and 7th) will offer players birdie chances alongside the par 5s.

Fast or Slow Start

With no previous event form to draw on we can't provide any analysis on whether a player can play catch up.

Six To Watch

As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:

​Connor Syme - 33/1 @ Bet365
Connor came really close to winning both events at Celtic Manor earlier in the season. He's a local lad, basing himself out of Drumoig and the likelihood is that he'll have far more course experience than the majority of the field. Last time out at the Scottish Open saw him finish 48th, a cold putter holding him back. He's been working hard on his putting this week back at home so hopefully we should see him fare better. He'll also have fond memories of Fairmont, having qualified for last year's Open Championship from the composite course used here.

Brandon Stone - 40/1 @ Bet365
Brandon is a hard one to get right but he has a certain affinity towards Scotland that should see him go well. He won the 2018 Scottish Open, was 10th at the 2018 Dunhill Links and finished 19th at the Scottish Open two weeks ago. We can forgive a missed cut at Wentworth last week as he has missed all four cuts there previously. He ranked 2nd SG: Approach in Scotland two weeks ago and 10th SG: Off The Tee last week at Wentworth. If he can marry those up he'll be in the mix this week.

​Clement Sordet - 66/1 @ Bet365
Clement is a four time winner on the Challenge Tour and if he's going to step up and win a European Tour event it could well be one like this. A 2nd place finish in Oman last year was a nice result on a coastal track and he didn't disgrace himself when he last played the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2018, finishing 28th. He's had a couple of weeks off having been unable to get into the Rolex events, but 28th at the Irish Open and 21st at the Wales Open demonstrate he's in solid enough form. In Ireland he was 4th SG: Approach and 27th SG: Off The Tee so he's showing enough for us to have him under consideration.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat - 66/1 @ Bet365
Having played predominantly on the PGA Tour these past two years, Kiradech has slipped to 225th in the Official World Rankings. We shouldn't forget he is a far better player than this and a significant drop in class here should suit. He boasts 4th and 15th place finishes in his last two starts at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship so we're happy with how he performs at this time of year in St Andrews. He won the Paul Lawrie Matchplay in 2015 in Scotland as well, so he's an accomplished links player on his day.

Adrian Meronk - 80/1 @ Bet365
Adrian comes into this after a couple of weeks off. Last seen at the Irish Open, where he posted a top 10 finish and signed off with a final round 66. Drilling further down, he ranked 4th SG: Off The tee and 10th SG: Approach that week. A winner on the Challenge Tour last year, he has adapted nicely to the upgrade with a 6th place at the Celtic Classic and a 21st place at the British Masters. He won his first event on the Challenge Tour last year after a week off, so there's every reason to like him.

Euan Walker - 275/1 @ Bet365
Euan had a highly successful 2019 as an amateur, finishing 2nd at both The Amateur Championship and European Amateur. He turned pro at the KLM Open last year, finishing 40th. A Walker Cup player in 2019, he has an excellent links pedigree but it is his association with Fairmont that attracts us most. He finished 7th at the 2019 Open Qualifying event and is attached to Fairmont so nobody will have prepped here more. It may be asking a lot for him to win, but he's certainly capable of a place.

In-play

In-Play Blog

18th October 2020

-18 Wallace
-15 G Porteous
-14 Otaegui
-13 Crocker
-12 Caldwell
-12 Pepperell
-12 Paisley

Matt Wallace takes a three shot lead into the final round of the Scottish Championship, with a best price of 2/5 at the bookies to convert.  With a dry and calm day forecast, those around him will be able to make plenty of birdies.  However, Wallace has made only one bogey this week and it's difficult to see him dropping many shots given the conditions.  He ranks 4th SG: Off The Tee and 1st SG: Approach this week and given our liking for his abilities under pressure, he's not one we want to take on today.

With that in mind, we have the identified one play in the 'Without Wallace' market.

1pt Each Way Chris Paisley without Matt Wallace (1/4 1,2,3) - 12/1 @ Boylesports

Garrick Porteous is the man who is currently winning this market but given he's never posted a top 5 finish on the European Tour, he's a leader worth taking on.  Chris Paisley is a European Tour winner and has been playing solidly this week, ranking inside the top 20 for SG: Approach and 36th for SG: Off The Tee.  He has been slightly more reliant on his putter than we'd like but on a day where birdies are going to be plentiful, that's no bad thing.  Paisley is a decent each way bet in the market without Wallace.

16th October 2020

-10 Otaegui
-7 Wallace
-7 Easton
-6 Harrington
-6 Rai
​-6 G Porteous
-6 Paisley

A blistering 62 was enough to see Adrian Otaegui take a 3 shot lead at the end of round one at the inaugural Scottish Challenge.  Despite that, Matt Wallace takes favouritism at 7/2.  Wallace hasn't won since September 2018 but his iron play was brilliant during round one and he's expected to be in contention at the business end of the tournament.

The weather forecast appears to slightly favour the morning players tomorrow with temperatures much the same throughout the day with the wind picking up slightly in the afternoon.  

1pt Each Way Adrien Saddier (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 66/1 @ Betfred
1pt Each Way Ashun Wu (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 80/1 @ Betfred

Adrien has yet to win on the European Tour but he's a player who has potential to win having posted a couple of top five finishes at the end of last year and start of this year.  He was extremely solid tee to green during round one, ranking 16th and 18th for SG: Off The Tee and SG: Approach respectively.  With a morning tee time, 66/1 is a solid price.

Wu is a three time European Tour winner, having won three times since 2015.  He was 4th in SG: Off The Tee for round one and although he was poor with his irons, it isn't traditionally a strength of his game.  He's a player to back when he gets off to a good start and being only five shots back he is primed for a move up the leaderboard during round two.