Event Info
Starts: 3 February 2022
Course: Royal Greens G&CC, Saudi Arabia
Par: 70 (35-35)
Length: 7,010 yards
2021 Champion: Dustin Johnson
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +36.25pts
Pre-Event Bets: +41.25pts
1.5pts Each Way Abraham Ancer 33/1 @ Ladbrokes
0.5pts Each Way Matt Wolff 60/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Harold Varner III 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Phil Mickelson 125/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts Each Way Louis Dobbelaar TO BE FIRST ROUND LEADER 90/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Sihwan Kim TO BE FIRST ROUND LEADER 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
2pts Brad Kennedy Top 20 Finish 9/2 @ Betfair
2pts Andrew Dodt Top 20 Finish 9/2 @ Betfair
In-Play Bets: -5pts
6 February 2022 (-3pts)
3pts Win Only Tommy Fleetwood 7/2 @ General
4 February 2022 (-2pts)
0.5pts Each Way Abraham Ancer 66/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-4)
0.5pts Each Way Phil Mickelson 125/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-4)
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Dave Sampson
Course Type: Short, Coastal
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Narrow-Average
Rough: Average.
Greens: Royal Dynasty Paspalum
Water Hazards: On 5 holes
Par 5's: 4th, 18th
Premium on: Length off the tee
Weather Forecast
Thurs: Scattered clouds. Winds of 14mph.
Fri: Sunny. Winds of 23mph in the afternoon.
Sat: Sunny. Winds of 19mph in the afternoon.
Sun: Sunny. Winds of 18mph in the afternoon.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This is the first of the new lucrative Asian Tour events which features many PGA Tour and DP World Tour stars. Large appearance fees are given to players to play.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning score
Winning score in the past three years has been -15, -12 and -19. We can expect a winning score in the mid teens given the weather forecast.
World Ranking of winner
The three previous winners have ranked 1-104-3 (most recent first).
Correlating Courses
Al Mouj Golf Course (Oman Open) is also laid with Paspalum Grass. We should look for comfortable links players, perhaps due to the strong winds that tend to arrive.
Course form
There have only been three events here so take course form with a pinch of salt. However, Dustin Johnson has a course record which reads 1-2-1!!
Recent form
DJ was 11th at the Tournament of Champions prior to his win last year. Graeme McDowell had a 4th place finish at the Sony Open in 2020 a few weeks before his win but missed his previous cut in Dubai. Dustin (2nd in 2020) had finished 7th at the Tournament of Champions beforehand. In 2019, Dustin arrived in hot form with 16-4 already that year. Tong Li (2nd) had finished 12th the week before. We should look for some form already shown in 2022.
Nationality
Last three winners were American (twice) and Northern Irish.
Stats Analysis
Strokes Gained stats are available since 2019 but don't include PGA Tour players like Dustin Johnson. McDowell showed you could putt your way to victory here as his other stats weren't anything special. Ignoring McDowell, driving distance seems a massive advantage here.
Driving Distance
DJ was 5th last year. McDowell only ranked 47th in 2020. In 2019 the top 5 all ranked 1st-13th.
SG: Off The Tee
Last year, DJ ranked 2nd. However, Tony Finau was the only other player in the top 5 to rank inside the top 20. In 2020, McDowell was 36th but three of the top 5 ranked inside the top 20 for SG: Off The Tee. In 2019, three of the top six ranked in the top 10 for this category.
SG: Approach
DJ was 5th last year. McDowell was 32nd in 2020 but it was notable Thomas Pieters (3rd) was 1st. Tom Lewis ranked 4th for approach in 2019 when finishing 3rd but the rest of the top 10 didn't rank highly.
SG: Around the Green
DJ was 20th last year. McDowell was 19th in 2020 but Green (3rd) was 81st.
SG: Putting
Johnson putted terribly last year, ranking 89th. McDowell putted superbly in 2020 to finish 5th in this category.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 13th, 16th and 3rd played as the hardest holes on the course in 2021.
Birdie Holes
The 4th, 17th and 10th played as the three easiest holes last year.
Fast or Slow Start
Last year, DJ trailed by 6 after round 1. McDowell led after round 1 and was always near the top. However, Pieters came from 6 back on day 1 to finish 3rd that year. In 2019, DJ was 5 back after round 1 and Tong Li (2nd) was 4 shots back. Catch up is possible around here.
Closing stretch
The 17th and 18th rank among the five easiest holes on the course. 17 is a driveable par 4 for the long hitters and 18 was the 4th easiest hole on course last year.
Course Notes 2021
Draw Bias
In 2021, the wind was much stronger Thursday afternoon. On Friday the morning starters had rain and wind all morning before the weather calmed down slightly for the afternoon starters. As a result, none of the PM-AM draw were in the top 10 at halfway and none of the top 5 at the end of the tournament played PM-AM.
First Round Leader Market
If similar wind forecast for Thursday, focus on the morning starters. Horsey and Gallacher were 100/1+.
The cream will rise
Out of the top 5, only Calum Hill was outside the top 40 in the world rankings.
Bombers Paradise
Once again, the course proved a perfect fit for long hitters like DJ and Ryan Fox. The leaderboard was packed with big hitters. There is plenty of room to miss the drives off the tee so the longer the better.
2021 Player Notes
DUSTIN JOHNSON: I knew it was going to be a tough day. There was a lot of really good players right around the lead. The conditions; it was really windy and hard to get it close to the hole. The greens are tricky and with the wind, too, you have to play some wind, so it was definitely hard to get a really good line. (Round 4)
IAN POULTER: It's the type of grass. Paspalum, that's a very -- so the grass goes all over the place. It's a strong grass. They (the greens) are immaculate compared to last week. I didn't think the greens were great at HSBC Abu Dhabi. I thought they were a bit soft, spongy. They (Saudi) are probably the best-looking surface of the three.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Thomas Pieters 18/1
Thomas has rock solid form in Saudi, a win 2 weeks ago in Abu Dhabi and good tee times. He was hard to omit.
Ian Poulter 50/1
Another with excellent course credentials and started the year well in Abu Dhabi. Looks like he's on the wrong side of the draw so one to potentially back after the first two rounds.
In-play
2022 Saudi International In-Play Blog
5 February 2022, 3:40pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
Varner III | -12 |
Arnaus | -11 |
Fleetwood | -10 |
Smith | -8 |
Three Players Tied | -7 |
Our 66/1 pre-event tip Harold Varner maintains his lead and is now 2/1 favourite to complete the job. He takes a one shot lead over Adri Arnaus (4/1) and two ahead of Tommy Fleetwood (7/2). Halfway favourite Cameron Smith had a poor round and is now four shots back at 10/1.
We liked Varner this week as he performs well outside of the USA and his sole win in his career came in Australia back in 2022. That is a long time for someone of his calibre to go without winning and he will be feeling the nerves tomorrow. If we're being honest, we're more hopeful than expectant here and would like to have seen him with a bigger cushion. We certainly wouldn't be advising backing at 2/1.
Varner will have to improve his driving and iron play tomorrow if he is to hold on and relied on several top class up and downs to keep his lead. Around and on the greens he was superb though and that appears to be key this week given the conditions.
Adri Arnaus is next in the betting and did well to hang in there. He hit a lot of loose shots and like Varner, his short game saved him multiple times. We expect the challenge to Varner's lead to come from further down the leaderboard.
The man most likely is now Tommy Fleetwood who's 67 was the best on the leaderboard. Tommy looks in control of his game to green and is likely to hang tough with Varner. Smith can't be ruled out yet and can contend should he sort his short range putting out. Odds of 10/1 look short being four back though and the same can be said of Dustin Johnson who is five back of Varner.
Conditions are expected to be the same tomorrow so we can expect a lot of excitement with the wind causing more havoc.
Round 3 Bet
- 3pts Win Only Tommy Fleetwood 7/2 @ General
We're in an excellent position with our 66/1 pre-event tip Harold Varner leading by one shot in Saudi. With doubts over Varner's ability to close and Arnaus game looking sloppy today, we rate Fleetwood as the most likely winner. Our preference would be for Varner to get the job done of course, but we think it's sensible to cover Fleetwood if he comes through as we expect him to. Tommy looks the most in control of his ball in the wind and is likely to put a lot of pressure on the leader tomorrow. Should Varner pull through, there would be no regrets in covering the most likely winner in our eyes as it stands.
4 February 2022, 7:00pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
Varner III | -10 |
Arnaus | -10 |
Wolff | -8 |
Smith | -8 |
Fleetwood | -7 |
As expected the wind blew strongly in the afternoon and those players out after lunch struggled compared to those players who played in the morning.
Round 1 leader Matteo Manassero, slumped to a 73 and is now five shots off the pace. Harold Varner III and Adri Arnaus have climbed to the top, each posting a round of 66.
Given the conditions, it looked like Varner would lead on his own going into the weekend but Arnaus was excellent in the breeze to join him. Arnaus is the only player in the top eight who played in the AM-PM part of the draw.
The Spaniard is now priced up at 7/1 with the bookmakers. He's yet to win on the DP World Tour and with the quality of chasers, we don't see much value in that price.
Harold Varner (9/2) is another who has struggled to win in recent years and he's priced up at 5/1. We advised Harold at the start of the week to subscribers at 66/1 and we're obviously hoping he can get the job done this weekend. Like Arnaus, he's struggled to win in recent times but he became a father at the end of last year and we're hopeful that is the boost he needs to close this event out.
Chasing Arnaus and Varner are two players who must be respected. Cameron Smith (4/1) was exceptional when winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions a month ago, whilst Matt Wolff (7/1) is a player of enormous potential. Smith has only dropped one shot all week, whilst Wolff could easily have been a joint leader were it not for two putts missed under 3ft. He was another player we advised pre-event so we are very much hoping he can put those errors behind him.
Pre-event favourite, Dustin Johnson (14/1) could only manage a round of 71 which sees him six shots back. He can't be written off just yet.
The wind will rise to 20mph in the afternoon.
Round 3 Bets
- No bet
Patrick Reed (33/1) was a very tempting option but we're happy to see how the 3rd round progresses given our pre-event interest in Harold Varner and Matt Wolff. We'll review again ahead of the 4th round.
3 February 2022, 5:00pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
Manassero | -8 |
Arnaus | -6 |
Horsfield | -6 |
Watson | -6 |
Varner III | -6 |
Kinoshita | -6 |
Matteo Manassero rolled back the clock to fire a best of the day 62 in calm conditions in Saudi Arabia.
The Italian is now a 28/1 chance to lead from start to finish. It's not a price we're interested in. Whilst he is a four time winner on the European Tour, the last of those wins came in 2013 and he's largely struggled in the intervening years. The last few years have shown signs of recovery but we're happy to see how he plays the next day or two.
Pre-event favourite, Dustin Johnson, remains the favourite at 5/1 after an opening 65. Were he not playing in the strongest of tomorrow's winds he'd be under consideration but as it is, the price doesn't appeal.
Chasing Manassero in a group at six under par are a mix of DP World, PGA and Japanese Tour players. Watson, Varner III and Kinoshita compiled their scores in the afternoon, so they will likely have an advantage playing in easier conditions tomorrow morning.
As we mentioned in the preview, players do not have to be up with the pace at Royal Greens G&CC. Two of the three winners of the event in previous years have been at least five shots back after round one. With conditions set to be breezy over the next three days, we could well see a different leaderboard come Sunday.
The wind will be around 16mph in the morning, rising to 23mph in the afternoon.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Abraham Ancer 66/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-4)
We were on Abraham from the start this week and are ken to top up on him after a solid opening round. We played him cautiously outright this week due to the fact he doesn't have his regular caddie due to a positive Covid test. However, he plays in the easier morning conditions tomorrow and we like him to move up the leaderboard. If you can't get the 66/1 with Unibet, the 50/1 with Skybet still appeals.
- 0.5pts Each Way Phil Mickelson 125/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-4)
Phil was another we were on from the start this week and are surprised to see him priced up at 125/1 after a solid opening round of 67. Several birdie putts shaved the hole ont he back nine and he could well have been a few shots lower. Crucially, he's played here when the winds have blown and finished runner up to Graeme McDowell when doing so. The generally available 80/1 is still a price that interests us so take this if you can't bet with Unibet.