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European Open 2024

Event Info

Starts: 30th May 2024
Course: Green Eagle GC
Par: 73 (35-38)
Length: 7,457 yards
2023 Champion: Tom McKibbin

2024 European Open Tips

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European Open Course Info

Designer: Michael Blesch
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2017
Fairways: Wide
Rough: N/A
Greens: Large and undulating
Water Hazards: In-play on 17 holes
Par 5's: 4th, 9th, 11th, 15th, 16th & 18th 
Premium on: Par 5 scoring and approach play

Significant Info To Be Aware Of 

In 2019, the event was played in September, whilst it was played in July in 2017-18. The tournament was cancelled in 2020 due to Covid.

Porsche European Open Weather Forecast 

Thursday

Sunny Intervals with a moderate breeze. Wind 14mph 

Friday
Sunny Intervals with a moderate breeze. Wind 10mph 

Saturday
Sunny Intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 8mph 

Sunday 
Sunny Intervals and a moderate breeze. Wind 9mph 

Porsche European Open Trends 

Winning score 
Tom Mckibbin won with -9 whilst Kalle Samooja won in 2022 with a score of -6. Three of the previous four editions have been between -11 and -14. 

Winning Profile 
McKibbin was playing his first full season on the DP World Tour but regarded as a big talent at the time. Kalle Samooja was world number 239 before his win last year, whilst Marcus Armitage was ranked 190th in the world when winning in 2021.  All three players were winning their first DP World Tour title.

Paul Casey was world number 19 before his win in 2019 and had won on the PGA Tour earlier that year. Richard McEvoy was a massive shock winner when he held off Bryson DeChambeau in 2018.  Despite winning a Challenge Tour event the week before, he was only ranked 275th in the world.  Jordan Smith had a terrific season on tour before his win in 2017 and was ranked 122nd pre-win.  

Correlating Courses  
The Albatross Golf Course in Czech Republic is similar in terms of being a long brute of a course.

Course form 
Last year's champion, McKibbin was making his course debut. 2022 champion, Kalle Samooja, had recorded a top 20 finish in 2021.  The winner in 2021, Marcus Armitage, had no course form with only a missed cut to his name previously.

Casey was 7th in his previous finish here, McEvoy was 28th the year before and Smith was a debutant like most of the field.  A previous good showing at the course is an advantage but not essential. 

Recent form 
McKibbin was 21st at the KLM Open on his previous start but had missed three cuts in a row prior. Kalle Samooja had missed his three previous cuts prior to winning in 2022.

Armitage was 8th the week before his win. Casey arrived after a 3rd at the Tour Championship. McEvoy had won on the Challenge Tour in his previous start and Smith had made his last seven cuts without placing.  Aside from Samooja, recent form appears to be a very handy guide.

Nationality 
Five of the past six winners at this course have been British.  

Porsche European Open Stats Analysis 
We will assess the stats of the six most recent winners between 2017-23.

Driving Distance 
25-22-106-24-114-4. Despite the long yardage, McEvoy and Armitage both triumphed despite being shorter hitters. 

Driving Accuracy 
18-63-63-20-15-13. Driving Accuracy isn't perceived as essential but it certainly helps to average or better.

SG: Off The Tee
7-18-46-11-32-N/A. No stats are available for Smith's win in 2017 but he drove the ball beautifully. It's important to make up shots off the tee.

SG: Approach
9-3-19-1-21-N/A. Strong iron play is very important. 

SG: Around The Greens
79-10-10-96-45-N/A. Generally not a key stat. 

SG: Putting
37-109-7-30-30-N/A. Armitage ranked highly and whilst it's clearly important to put well, other stats are favoured. 

Porsche European Open In Play Guide 

Tough Holes 
In 2023, the Par 4 6th played the toughest. The 10th and 13th were next toughest.

Birdie Holes 
In 2023, the 11th, 15th and 18th played the three easiest holes.

Fast or Slow Start 
Mckibbin was three shots back after round one last year. Samooja was five shots back after the opening round in 2022.

However in 2019, three of the top four were in the top two after day one. It's possible to play catch up.

2024 European Open Tips

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In-play

European Open In-Play Blog

1 June 2024, 8:25pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Canter -12
Migliozzi -12
Norgaard -11
De Bruyn -10
Vaillant -10
Wiesberger -9

2024 European Open Round 3 Conditions

Sunny with very little breeze.

2024 European Open Round 4 Weather Bias?

Sunny with the wind peaking at 15mph later in the afternoon.

Round 3 Outright Market Summary

Laurie Canter edges favouritism at 9/4 with Guido Migliozzi 5/2.  Those prices are the wrong way around in our opinion and Migliozzi is much preferred to Canter with only one round to go.

Canter has yet to win on Tour and has yet to impress when in contention, whilst Migliozzi has three DP World Tour titles to his name and can be an effective closer.  Aside from a poor final round performance at the British Masters last year, Migliozzi has shown himself to have the necessary attributes to convert winning chances into wins.  We advised Migliozzi to subscribers before the third round at 20/1 and he is the man we'll be cheering on in round four.

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices

Masahiro Kawamura to beat Daniel Hillier 13/10 @ Boylesports/Bet365
Kawamura has bettered the score of Hillier in two of the three rounds this week and is playing the better golf tee to green.  Hillier has the second worst SG: Approach stats of the players who made the cut and he's losing strokes off the tee as well through three rounds.  It wouldn't be a surprise to see Hillier struggle once again given he's only bettered 77 once in five rounds now at Green Eagle GC.  Kawamura has the accuracy to keep his score respectable and a score around level par may well be enough to win this one.

European Open Round 4 Bets

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31 May 2024, 10:25pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Canter -12
Moller -9
De Bruyn -9
Porteous (through 14) -7
Five Players Tied -6

2024 European Open Round 2 Conditions

Play was delayed for four hours due to flooding. The course remained scoreable as Laurie Canter showed with a 66.

2024 European Open Round 3 Weather Bias?

The wind could reach 18mph with the morning starters getting slightly calmer conditions. Tee times haven't been released yet due to round two yet to be completed. 

Round 3 Outright Market Summary

Canter is a heavy 11/10 favourite now, followed by Moller at 5/1. Incredibly, Canter is yet to win a professional event despite multiple 2nd places and over ten top 5 finishes. Moller has yet to win at this level either but they do have a sizeable lead over the chasing pack. In the chasers favour, Samooja was six back at halfway in 2022 and Armitage came from four back on the final day in 2021. We shouldn't dismiss the group at 5 or 6 under yet. 

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices

Nothing of note. 

European Open Round 3 Bets

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30 May 2024, 9:25pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
De Bruyn -9
Canter -5
Davidson -5
Seven Players Tied  -4

2024 European Open Round 1 Conditions

Play was delayed four hours due to fog. The wind picked up slightly in the afternoon but the course was scoreable. 

2024 European Open Round 2 Weather Bias?

Potential rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The conditions on Saturday look to have more wind so it may be beneficial to finish the second round tomorrow. 

Round 2 Outright Market Summary

Despite De Bruyn's four shot lead, he is still third favourite in the betting, behind Laurie Canter and Tom McKibbin. De Bruyn appeared surprised about his performance and we can't envisage him maintaining the lead all week. He regressed drastically Friday onwards last year. Out of Canter and McKibbin, we would strongly favour the later given Canter's poor finish and general struggles to win. Anyone under par is still in this event due to a vulnerable leader.

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices

Nothing of note. 

European Open Round 2 Bets

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