Starts - 17th September 2020
Course - Royal Obidos Spa & Golf Resort, Portugal
Par - 72 (36-36)
Length – 7,287 yards
Defending Champion - Adrian Meronk (Challenge Tour event)
Overall Profit/Loss: N/A
Pre-Event Six to Watch
T11th Julien Brun 66/1
T49th Jens Fahrbring - 80/1
MC Andres Romero - 100/1
T9th Maverick Antcliff - 125/1
T61st Henric Sturehed 150/1
MC Per Langfors 250/1
In-Play Bets: N/A
No In-play bets
Type of Course - Exposed and undulating resort course.
Course Designer - Seve Ballesteros
Water Hazards - In-play on 7 holes
Par 5's - 2nd, 5th, 7th, 11th and 18th
Premium on - Length and ability to play in wind
A mixed forecast all week.
Thurs - Cloudy with chance of showers and thunder. 10 - 15mph wind
Fri - Cloudy with chance of showers and thunder. 15 - 25mph wind
Sat - Cloudy with chance of showers. 15 - 20mph wind
Sun - Cloudy with chance of showers.. 10 - 15mph wind
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. We saw Jordan Smith withdraw two weeks ago due to "struggles living within the European Tour bubble".
With the course having been used for the first time we have no trends to go on.
The course has not been used previously so we cannot analyse previous statistics.
No in-play analysis at this time.
Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Julien Brun 66/1 - William Hill
With the exception of a 6th place finish at the Euram Bank Open, Julien has been playing the Pro Golf Tour since lockdown. He's not finished worse than 8th in his last six starts and whilst he's been playing at a lower level, the confidence gained should see him go well this week.
Jens Fahrbring - 80/1 @Bet365
We keep faith with Jens despite a missed cut last week. His 3rd place on the Challenge Tour two weeks ago coupled with good approach play last week is enough for us to chance him again. He's on the comeback trail having missed most of 2018 and all of 2019, and is a two time winner on the Challenge Tour.
Andres Romero - 100/1 @ Genting Bet
In this type of field Andres is worth keeping an eye on. He's only teed it up twice since golf resumed following the break for Coronavirus but four consistent rounds last week gives us cause for cautious optimism. He won out of the blue in 2017 and posted a 2nd place finish on the European Tour last year. At triple figure odds he's one to watch if he starts well.
Maverick Antcliff - 125/1 @ Genting Bet
Maverick has been on our radar for a while now owing to his excellent long game stats. He missed the cut at the Portugal Masters but again demonstrated fine iron play as he ranked 4th for Strokes Gained: Approach over the two rounds. He won three times in China last season and he remains one to keep an eye on.
Henric Sturehed 150/1 - 888Sport
Henric shot a 59 over lockdown and has demonstrated enough over the past few weeks for us to put him up as one to watch. A couple of top 5 finishes on the Nordic Golf League preceded a 33rd place finish at the Northern Ireland Open on the Challenge Tour. He posted a 5th place finish in this event last year (albeit on the Challenge Tour) so hopefully that's a good omen.
Per Langfors 250/1 - 888Sport
Per is a standout price at 888Sport, being a general 100/1 shot at most bookmakers. He finished 23rd in Northern Ireland a couple of weeks ago on the Challenge Tour and made good progress early in his career playing the Nordic Golf League. A year on the European Tour last season didn't go to plan but at least a step down in class this week shouldn't phase him and he'll be seeking a big finish.
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