Preview
Event Info
Starts: 24th November 2022
Course: Houghton GC, Johannesburg
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,153 yards
2021 Champion: Thriston Lawrence
Course Info
Style: Parkland, tree lined.
Designer: A.M. Copland (Nicklaus re-design)
Fairways: Average/Narrow
Rough: Kikuya rough.
Par 5's: 3rd, 5th, 16th, 18th
Hosted Since: 2022
Premium on: Approach play
Weather Forecast
Thurs: Sunny Intervals. Wind 8-10mph.
Fri: Light rain showers. Wind 8-10mph.
Sat: Light rain showers. Wind 9-11mph.
Sun: Light rain showers. Wind 8-10mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
- This is the first of three co-sanctioned events in South Africa.
- Houghton GC hosted the Alfred Dunhill Championship between 1996 - 2004.
Trends
Winning score
Winning scores for the Alfred Dunhill Championships held between 2001 - 2004 at Houghton GC were -21, -20, -15 and -22. We should expect a score around 20 under par.
Incoming form
The three winners of the Alfred Dunhill Championship between 2001 - 2004 all failed to better 60th position in their previous event.
Nationality
This event has been dominated by locals. Three of the top four in 2021 were South African. In 2020, five of the top 10 were South African. Eight of the top 12 were local the year before that and 9 of the top 14 were South African the year prior. Preference for locals.
Stats Analysis
We have no stats from previous tournaments to analyse.
Quotes
“The rough is not up this week so I think the scoring will be low, but the greens are pretty slopey so missing on the wrong side of the hole will result in sloppy bogeys. You also need to keep it in play off the tee. The fairways are narrow and tree lined so I feel if you can drive the ball well this week you’ll give yourself lots of chances." Christiaan Bezuidenhout
“There are a couple of tough par fours out here, and the greens are where they’ll tuck the flags and make it tricky. The course is in lovely condition and there isn’t much rough, so it will come down to what you do around the greens and being able to score with the putter.” Richard Sterne
“It’s my first experience of Houghton Golf Club. The golf course looks great and I think everybody will be pretty happy with it this week. You have to shape your shots off the tee pretty well. I’d say your seven iron to wedge game needs to be pretty good around here, and then obviously controlling it on the greens and making a few putts. It’s kind of the same story every week, but I feel this week in particular is going to place greater emphasis on shaping it off the tee and having good control around the greens.” George Coetzee
“I’d love to add a second DP World Tour title this year. On this golf course, you’ll have to hit the ball well off the tee and then putt well.” Shaun Norris
In Play
Tough Holes
The 14th hole (par 4) played as the hardest hole when the course last hosted the Alfred Dunhill Championship in 2004. Holes 9 and 13 ranked 2nd and 3rd hardest.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5s were the easiest holes in 2004 but the 1st hole also played well under par (0.2 shots under par) for the week.
Fast or Slow Start
2004: Marcel Siem was joint leader after round one.
2003: Mark Foster was 35th after round one, a full five shots behind the leader.
2002: Justin Rose as 52nd, five shots behind the round one leader.
2001: Adam Scott was 11th after round one, also five shots behind the round one leader.
2000: Anthony Wall was 4th after round one, 1 shot off the early pacesetters.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers.
Marcel Siem 70/1
Marcel was very close to selection given he's a winner at this course in 2004 and finished 18th at DPWT Q School on his last start. One to watch in-play.
Jens Dantorp 80/1
A good year on the Challenge Tour and several top 10 finishes on the DP World Tour made Dantorp an attractive play but others in this price bracket marginally preferred.
Casey Jarvis 200/1
Hugely talented youngster who was 2nd last time out at the PGA Championship on the Sunshine Tour. The earlier 250/1 has disappeared and 200/1 is about right.
In-play
2022 Joburg Open In-Play Blog
26th November 2022, 9:20pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Bradbury |
-17 |
Valimaki |
-16 |
Van Tonder |
-14 |
Bezuidenhout |
-12 |
Jarvis |
-12 |
Langasque |
-11 |
De Jager |
-11 |
Round 3 Summary
Dan Bradbury maintained his lead courtesy of a double bogey on the last hole from Sami Valimaki. Casey Jarvis had opened up a three shot lead early on when he played the opening three holes in four under par but he faded as the round progressed.
Round 4 Weather
Heavy overnight rain will leave the course soft. However, conditions are expected to be dry until late afternoon. Wind 6-8mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Sami Valimaki is a best price of 13/8. However, the Finn was lucky to get away with some errant tee shots in the last few holes and that's definitely a concern. His double bogey at the last hole was fortunate and his luck may well run out tomorrow. That said, he has considerably more experience in contention at this level than Dan Bradbury.
Dan Bradbury(19/10) played like a veteran in the 3rd round, a short missed birdie putt on 13 the only indicator that the magnitude of the situation was dawning on him. However, he birdied the very next hole and looked steady playing the final few holes. As we mentioned yesterday, he has no playing rights for the DP World Tour or Challenge Tour next year and the pressure of trying to win to obtain those may well affect him in the final round.
Daniel Van Tonder is available at 11/2 and that's a tempting price. He's only dropped one shot in the last two rounds and he'll enjoy home support in the final group. Van Tonder won twice last year, with final rounds of 64 and 65. He's no stranger to winning from off the pace.
Where is the value?
Van Tonder made appeal in the outright market, as did Casey Jarvis, who has shown he can make birdies in bunches. However, we like a three ball pick as our best bet.
Round 4 Bet
- 3pts Daniel Van Tonder to beat Dan Bradbury and Sami Valimaki 29/20 @ Bet365
As we mentioned above, Daniel is expected to apply the pressure to the front two and it would be no surprise to see him outscore his playing partners in the final round. We were very close to putting him up in the outright market but instead we'll opt for him to outscore his playing partners in this three ball bet.
25th November 2022, 6:00pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Bradbury |
-13 |
Jarvis (through 14) |
-12 |
Langasque (through 11) |
-12 |
Bezuidenhout |
-10 |
Van Tonder |
-10 |
Kruger |
-10 |
Kimsey |
-10 |
Valimaki |
-10 |
Round 2 Summary
Dan Bradbury leads once again but a substantial delay for inclement weather meant the afternoon starters were unable to complete their second round.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
None available at time of writing.
Round 3 Weather
Rain showers expected later in the day. Wind 12-14 mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Christiaan Bezuidenhout narrowly edges market favouritism at 4/1. Having played in the morning in round two, he won't have to arrive at the course early to finish his second round and that may well prove to be an advantage later in the day. However, the 4/1 feels no more than fair at this stage.
Romain Langasque is priced up at 5/1 with seven holes remaining of his second round. He could well catch Bradbury by the end of the second round but that's not a certainty with the wind set to blow a little stronger tomorrow.
Louis De Jager and Dan Bradbury are priced up at 17/2 and 9/1 respectively. Neither makes particular appeal. De Jager hasn't always impressed at the business end of tournaments and Bradbury will surely feel the pressure over the weekend given he doesn't even have status for the Challenge Tour in 2023.
Where is the value?
Jbe Kruger is once again an attractive price (33/1). Had we not tipped him yesterday, he would certainly have been under consideration again.
Round 3 Bet
Aside from Jbe Kruger, Sami Valimaki was the player who stood out most in the betting. We'll likely review things again in the morning once the secound round has been completed. Keep an eye on our Twitter account for any leans we post.
24th November 2022, 5:05pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Bradbury |
-8 |
Bachem |
-7 |
Langasque |
-6 |
Berardo (through 11) |
-6 |
Four players tied |
-5 |
Round 1 Summary
Dan Bradbury had an eventful round as a double bogey and bogey were tempered with two eagles and seven birdies. The afternoon starters were unable to complete their round due to several weather delays.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
None available at time of writing.
Round 2 Weather
Rain showers expected later in the day. Wind 6-11 mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Christiaan Bezuidenhout remains the market favourite with two holes left of his opening round. He reached five under par at one stage of his round and will have been disappointed to have slipped back to three under par. The 6/1 is tempting given his early round two tee time.
Thriston Lawrence (13/2) and Romain Langasque (15/2) are the only other players priced up below 16/1. Both players will play in the afternoon tomorrow and whilst they are respected, there are other prices which offer greater appeal at this point.
Where is the value?
As we noted in the preview, winners at Houghton over the years have often come from off the pace. Six of the top eight after round one played in the morning, so our focus is on those players who have an early tee time in round two.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Jbe Kruger 80/1 @ General (1/4 1-4)
Kruger was under consideration pre-event given the layout at Houghton. However, he played in Japan last week and there were concerns over travel and how that would affect him. He's brushed off any jet lag and is off to a fast start. A winner on the Asian Tour and Japanese Tour in the last three years, he can get hot with the putter and that could serve him well over the weekend.