Preview
Course Info
Designer: European Golf Design
Used Since: 2021
Fairways: Average
Greens: Large
Water Hazards: On 10 holes
Premium on: Driving
Significant Info
This is the second time this course has been used for the Italian Open since it underwent a re-design ahead of the Ryder Cup in 2023.
European Golf Design, the firm tasked with the re-design, were also responsible for the 2010 course at Celtic Manor, Green Eagle Golf (Nord) and Le Golf National.
The course did host the Italian Open in 1994 but we are placing little emphasis on that given the changes.
Weather
Thursday
Possible thunderstorm in the afternoon. Wind to peak at 15mph.
Friday
Possible thunderstorm in the afternoon. Wind to peak at 12mph.
Saturday
Sunny intervals with a max wind of 17mph.
Sunday
Sunny with a max wind of 9mph.
Stats
With only last year's Italian Open to draw upon, we will analyse the stats of the top four in 2021.
SG: Off The Tee
The top four in 2021 ranked 1-16-81-44. Strong drivers of the golf ball are preferred this week.
Driving Accuracy
The top four in 2021 ranked 100-41-73-62. Driving accuracy isn't essential this week.
Driving Distance
The top four in 2021 ranked 40-9-26-90. Distance over accuracy this week.
SG: Approach
The top four in 2021 ranked 21-7-70-29. You don't have to be razor sharp with the irons to win this week but it will certainly help.
SG: Around The Green
The top four in 2021 ranked 50-52-26-8.
SG: Tee to Green
The top four in 2021 ranked 1-4-49-6. You can putt your way to a big finish, as Tommy Fleetwood did last year. Strong ball striking is preferred though.
SG: Putting
The top four in 2021 ranked 51-42-2-23.
In-Play
Tough Holes
The long par 4s, 14th and 8th, played as the hardest holes in 2021. Be aware if betting in-play that holes 14, 15 and 17 ranked amongst the four hardest holes in 2021.
Birdie Holes
The three par 5s and the short par 4 11th hole played as the four easiest holes in 2021.
In-Play
Last year's winner, Nicolai Hojgaard, was 7th after the opening round.
Player Quotes
"There's definitely some trickiness to it, a few of the greens are very very undulated and they are quick. If you can't put the ball in the right spot you are really behind the eight ball." Henrik Stenson, 2021.
"I was shocked yesterday at how good the scoring was. I'd only really ever played it in wind and I felt it was a tough test every time." Tommy Fleetwood, 2021.
"It (driving distance) is definitely the biggest strength. There are a lot of bunkers 280-285 meters out and I can carry most of them so I can have short irons for 2nd shots. On 16 I can hit a 3 wood onto the green and it's definitely an advantage." Nicolai Hojgaard, 2021.
"Well, it's quite a big golf course. There are some long holes out there. You know, whether it's similar to, I mean, I heard a few players thought it was somewhat similar to a Celtic Manor. Quite a few drivers off the tee but beautifully presented. When that fescue grass slows up, the different colourations between the fairways and the rough. I think it has sort of a stadium feel a little bit like Paris, a little bit like Celtic Manor where you can create some great vistas for the fans." Luke Donald, 2022
"I just heard that Luke Donald compared it to Celtic Manor. I think there are some similarities." Francesco Molinari, 2022.
"Yeah, similar to Celtic Manor and similar to Gleneagles, a little, too, just warmer, better weather here." Rory McIlroy,2022.
"I played last year, The Italian Open, and the course is pretty challenging. This year, it's more like wet than the last year, and the green are a little bit slower. But I think it's a good challenge to play on this course because the greens are so slopey and big, so it's very -- the key I think is to like miss the shot not in the wrong part of the green because the green are not easy." Filippo Celli, 2022.
"I feel like this week looking at it is you've got to drive the ball well I feel like this week. You give yourself a chance from the fairways. As soon as you're in the rough, you get all sorts of lies, flyers. I think looking at it, if you drive the ball well, give yourself plenty of chances on the greens, you're in with a good shot." Matt Fitzpatrick, 2022.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Rasmus Hojgaard 45/1
Everything appears to be trending for the young Dane and he was last man off our list this week.
Kurt Kitayama 50/1
Plenty to like about the talented American but he's half the price of last week and that ultimately put us off. One we'll be watching in-play.
Grant Forrest 125/1
Long off the tee and put in a solid effort at this venue last year. There seems to be a treble bogey (or worse) every week holding him back but could be one to watch in-play.
Oliver Bekker 160/1
Ranked 23rd SG: Tee to Green last week. If Rory wins and we're playing for places this week, Bekker is a big price for someone who has seven top 10s from 21 starts this year.
In-play
Italian Open In-Play Blog
17 September 2022, 7:25pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Fitzpatrick |
-10 |
McIlroy |
-9 |
Rai |
-9 |
Perez |
-8 |
Kitayama |
-8 |
Herbert |
-8 |
Round 3 Summary
The wind caused all sorts of havoc on the back nine, meaning no one was able to run away with a lead. Matt Fitzpatrick recovered from a slow start to take a one shot lead over Rory McIlroy and Aaron Rai who shot a round of the day 65.
Round 4 Weather
Conditions should be warmer with the wind set to blow 10-15mph with gusts of up to 25mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Fitzpatrick has not led since going into the final round of the US Open where he hit 17/18 greens in regulation and was flawless that day. He appeared to enjoy the tougher conditions today and if the same wind arrives tomorrow as expected we prefer him to McIlroy to finish the job.
McIlroy undoubtedly should have been considerably lower today with the putter not behaving but it's evident the wind is an equaliser to his ability and the leaderboard is more compact than it was at the start of the day and for that reason we're happy to swerve both players at 19/10.
Much of the reason for that is there are four very dangerous chasers in Aaron Rai, Kurt Kitayama, Victor Perez and Lucas Herbert who are all capable of stamping their mark on this event. We selected the later pair at 60/1 and 50/1 pre-event and although a sloppy finish cost them both, we remain optimistic of a charge tomorrow.
Where is the value?
The bookmakers appear to have counted out anyone seven under or below and one price looks too big to pass up.
Round 4 Bet
- 1.5pts Win Only Robert MacIntyre 28/1 @ Bet365
We put Robert up as Top Scotsman yesterday at 10/11 and he now has a five shot lead over Scott Jamieson. He is three back of Fitzpatrick and improving every round, ranking 9th for greens in regulation today. His aggressive game will suit chasing tomorrow and he could outplay odds of 28/1.
16 September 2022, 9pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
McIlroy |
-9 |
Fitzpatrick |
-8 |
Lewis |
-7 |
Perez |
-6 |
Six players tied |
-5 |
Round 2 Summary
Rory McIlroy birdied the last hole in near darkness to take a one shot lead into the weekend at the Italian Open.
Round 3 Weather
Partly sunny with the wind set to blow 10-20mph with gusts of up to 25mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
We stated Rory McIlroy was the man to beat in yesterday's blog and his performance in round two has only strengthened that opinion. He's now a general 10/11 to win and we wouldn't blame you if you wanted to take that price.
McIlroy's nearest challenger is Matt Fitzpatrick. The Englishman is available at a best price of 10/3 but he makes little appeal given the ragged nature of his game the opening two days. He holed several long putts on day two which propped up his score and we're not convinced his tee to green game is where it needs to be this week.
Where is the value?
We're already on Victor Perez and Lucas Herbert (-5) from our pre-event bets but the man who appeals most in the outright market is Tyrrell Hatton. The Englishman will not be afraid of hunting down Rory McIlroy, having done so when winning the 2021 Abu Dhabi Championship. We'd be surprised if he isn't still a few shots behind McIlroy going into the final round so we are prepared to keep a watching brief at the moment and review the outright market again tomorrow. We do have one bet in the Top Scottish market.
Round 3 Bet
- 4.5pts Robert MacIntyre to be TOP SCOTTISH 10/11 @ Boylesports
This a three horse race with MacIntyre currently -3, Scott Jamieson -4 and Marc Warren at level par. MacIntyre has been the best tee to green out of the three players so far and that's not surprising given he was extremely enthusiastic about his iron play last week. Jamieson ranks 4th in SG: Putting and he'll do well to keep scoring the way he has. MacIntyre is the quality player out of the three and with only a one shot deficit, the 10/11 is too big.
15 September 2022, 9pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Fitzpatrick (thru 15) |
-5 |
Green |
-4 |
Arnaus |
-4 |
McIlroy |
-4 |
Jamieson |
-4 |
Pepperell |
-4 |
Rozner |
-4 |
Quiros (thru 16) |
-4 |
Luiten (thru 13) |
-4 |
Round 1 Summary
A testing breeze and thicker rough saw Marco Simone GC play tougher than last year. Play was delayed by an hour first thing due to fog and as a result some players were unable to finish their opening round.
Round 2 Weather
Cloudy with the wind set to blow 10-20mph with gusts of up to 25mph. Morning starters look to have the best conditions.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy is a best price 23/10 after a blistering back nine brought him back into contention. Last week's runner up was one over par through his opening 11 holes before holing a wedge shot on the 3rd (his 12th hole). Three birdies in his last five holes gave him a score of -4 and the odds on offer are fair. Rory attributed his slow start to a lack of sleep but he shouldn't have that problem in round two and he's definitely the man to beat.
Matt Fitzpatrick can be backed at 14/5 but it wasn't a convincing performance on day one. His driving was wayward and he got away with at least two drives which were well off line. He has the driveable par 4 and par 5 18th to play when play resumes so its entirely possible he leads by at least a couple of shots by the end of the round.
Where is the value?
With the first round yet to be completed, there are no 2nd round leader odds available. With Fitzpatrick and McIlroy looming large, we're content to let the 2nd round play out and review the outright market again tomorrow.
Round 2 Bets