Starts - 22 October 2020
Course - hervò Golf Club, San Vigilio di Pozzolengo, Brescia , Italy
Par - 72 (36-36)
Length – 7,434 yards
Defending Champion- Bernd Wiesberger
Overall Profit/Loss: -8pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
MC Thorbjorn Olesen - 45/1 @ Betfred
T30th Matthew Jordan 35/1 @ Bet365
MC Justin Walters - 125/1 @ Betfred
In-Play Bets: -8pts
23 October 2020 ( -2 Points)
1pt Each Way Niklas Lemke (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - 80/1 @ Boylesports
23 October 2020 ( -6 Points)
1pt Each Way Sebastian Heisele (1/4 1,2,3) - 22/1 @ 888Sport
0.5pts Each Way Louis De Jager (1/4 1,2,3) - 22/1 @ 888Sport
3pts Louis De Jager Top 5 Finish - 6/1 @ William Hill
Type of Course - Parkland, Resort, Birdie Fest.
Course Designer -Kurt Rossknecht
Course Links - Rossknecht also designed München Eichenried which hosted BMW International Open 2019, 2017, 2015, 2013.
Fairways - Wide
Rough - Kikuya rough.
Water Hazards - Features throughout. In-play on holes 1,2,7,8,9,11,16,17.
Par 5's - 4th, 6th, 11th and 18th.
Hosted Since - Debut
Temperatures expected to be between 12-18 degrees, with some mist and fog forecast in the mornings (8-10am).
Thurs - Sunny intervals, light winds.
Fri - Light rain, light winds.
Sat - Sunny intervals, light winds.
Sun - Sunny intervals, light winds.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. Last week saw one positive test for Covid-19 (Jbe Kruger) .
Chervo Golf Club is less tree-lined than previous Italian Open courses, offering more room off the tee - which may suit the bombers.
Last three years have been -16, -22, -21. Last year's course was a 7,500+ yard par 71 so we can probably expect the winning score to be -20 or better.
We should value recent form highly given the lack of course form.
A wide range of nationalities have won the Italian Open in recent years - Austria, Denmark, England, Italy, Sweden, South Africa, France, Spain.
With no previous events here, we have no stats analysis.
The long par 4s (1st, 8th, 12th and 15th) are expected to cause difficulty. Par 3s 5th and 14th play over 215 yards so may prove tricky.
The short par 4s (7th, 9th, 13th and 16th) will offer players birdie chances alongside the par 5s which are all reachable for most - 4th, 6th, 11th and 18th.
Fast or Slow Start
With no previous course form to draw on, no analysis on whether a player can play catch up.
Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Matthew Jordan 35/1 @ Bet365
Mathew should enjoy a return to Italy following his maiden professional win on the Challenge Tour here last year. He has come on leaps and bounds since and has four top 25's in his last 5 starts, including a 3rd in Wales. He will be able to utilise his power driving around this course and 7th for Putts Per GIR is a perfect combination for what should be birdie fest.
Thorbjorn Olesen - 45/1 @ Betfred
The Dane continues his comeback and has been playing consistent golf with 6 out of 7 cuts made. He may improve on his last finish of 27th at Wentworth as he has terrific memories in Italy. He won in 2018 and was 2nd in 2011. 10th place at the 2019 BMW International Open (also a Rossknecht design) is also a bonus.
Justin Walters - 125/1 @ Betfred
The South African is one of the players who may have taken most inspiration from Jason Kokrak recording his first PGA Tour victory in over 200 attempts. Four second places is a familiar story and he fought well enough in his most recent attempt at the ISPS Handa UK Championship to show the elusive win may be coming soon. A final round 63 last week in Scotland bodes well, as does his 10th place finish in a stronger field in Italy last year. The icing on top is his 40th birthday this Friday, often a landmark which sparks players into action.
Gonzalo Fernandez Castano - 160/1 @ Bet365
Gonzo has been playing consistent golf recently without doing enough to be noticed (four made cuts in a row). 33rd last week in Scotland and 14th in Portugal shows he isn't far off and a return to warmer temperatures in Italy should suit. He is a two time winner of the Italian Open (2007, 2012) and recent efforts of 30th and 48th aren't too bad either given he's not done much lately.
Jens Fahrbring - 225/1 @ Bet365
Jens has made significant leaps since lockdown, going from 2007th in the world to 699th, including a 10th at the Betfred Masters and a 3rd in Northern Ireland on the Challenge Tour. He will be looking forward to returning to Italy where he had his best ever European Tour result, 3rd at the 2015 Italian Open. He also finished 19th a few weeks ago in Italy on the Challenge Tour.
Carlos Pigem - 350/1 @ Skybet
The Spaniard is our long shot and can bounce back from the missed cut in Ireland on his last start. His penultimate start is a more comparable test, at resort golf in the Open de Portugal where he fired 22 birdies and an eagle to finish tied 5th. His last top 10 before that was a third place in Italy on the Challenge Tour. He is a longish hitter and can take advantage of the wide fairways.
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