Event Info
Starts - 27th August 2020
Course - The Belfry Resort
Par - 72 (36-36)
Length – 7,233 yards
Defending Champion- N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -8pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
T5th Bernd Wiesberger - 20/1
MC Chris Paisley - 66/1
T15th Aaron Rai - 70/1
T25th John Catlin - 125/1
T47th Garrick Higgo - 150/1
MC Maverick Antcliff - 300/1
In-Play Bets: -8pts
30 August 2020 ( -2 Points)
1ptEach Way (1/4 1,2,3) Min Woo Lee - 66/1 @ 888Sport
29 August 2020 ( -6 Points)
2pts Each Way Ryan Fox (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 10/1 @ Boylesports
1pt Each Way Julian Suri (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 33/1 @ Boylesports
Preview
Course Info
The European Tour moves to The Belfry for the final leg of the UK Swing.
The resort has three 18 hole courses but it is the Brabazon in use this week. Ryder Cup venue on no less than four occasions, it has also hosted 16 European Tour events. It was last used in 2008 for the British Masters and most of the players will be making their course debuts.
Given a facelift in the late 1990's by Dave Thomas, the Brabazon has water in play on a number of holes.
It is a par 72 with three par 5s and three 3s. With 12 par 4s a premium will be placed on par 4 performance. The 10th is a driveable par 4 for those who want to take on the risk. The 18th is also notable with water being in play for both drive and approach.
Weather Forecast
Summary
Light showers and a gentle breeze are the forecast.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise an abundance of caution (credit: Chase Koepka and the PGA Tour) in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. Alex Levy and Romain Wattel withdrew from the Celtic Classic two weeks ago, with Levy subsequently testing positive.
Trends
When the British Masters was held at The Belfry between 2006-2008 the winning scores were -11, -15 and -12.
All three winners had four rounds under par.
There's a clear course correlation with Loch Lomond Golf Club, host of the Scottish Open until 2010. Johan Edfors and Lee Westwood won here in 2006 and 2007 and both are course winners at Loch Lomond. Even 2008 winner, Gonzalo Fernandez Castano, has a 2nd place finish at Loch Lomond.
For a more recent correlation, the Portugal Masters offers a number of similarities. Westwood is a winner at the Dom Pedro Victoria golf course, Fernandez-Castano has a runner up finish and Edfors has a solid enough record there too.
The UK Swing put together by the European Tour has been dominated by English golfers, with three wins out of five. It's also worth noting that in the five events, every one bar the English Championship has seen UK golfers occupy at least 50% of the top 5 places.
Stats Analysis
At first glance the winners of the last three British Masters (2006-2008) have all been accurate iron players. Water is in play on a number of holes so those who are wild off the tee or inaccurate with approach shots often pay a high tariff. We should favour players with good Strokes Gained: Approach stats.
In Play
Third round leaders have a terrible record in recent times with every 3rd round leader beaten between 2006-2008. Edfors won from 4 back, Westwood won from 2 back and Fernandez-Castano came from 3 back.
All opened with under par rounds when winning their British Masters titles.
Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Bernd Wiesberger - 20/1 @ William Hill
Bernd recorded a solid 43rd place finish at the US PGA on his last outing. He drove the ball really well that week and that should stand him in good stead. A three time winner in 2019, he's the player we like best out of those at the head of the market.
Chris Paisley - 66/1 @ Genting Bet
Chris has recorded some nice finishes since golf resumed, banking two top 20 finishes before the UK Swing moved to Wales. A solid 27th place last week with a pair of weekend 69s (which included a triple bogey 7 in the 3rd round) was enough to catch our attention and we fancy him to go well at The Belfry.
Aaron Rai - 70/1 @ Betfred
Aaron has been playing solid if unspectacular golf since golf resumed but we feel this could be the week he posts a big finish. His Greens In Regulation stats were excellent once again last week and a return to a venue he is extremely familiar with should allow him to flourish.
John Catlin - 125/1 @ William Hill
John missed the cut in Wales last week but windy conditions are not his forte and a return to calmer conditions this week should suit him. He recorded a 6th place finish at the Celtic Classic the week before and if he gets in the mix he's a player who is capable of winning having won three times in 2018 and once in 2019 in Asia.
Garrick Higgo - 150/1 @ 888 Sport
Garrick was Rookie of the Year on the Sunshine Tour last year and it will feel very much like a Sunshine Tour event for him this week as he is paired with compatriots JC Ritchie and Jacques Kruyswijk for the first two rounds. His last start was at the Euram Bank Open in Austria where he recorded a 6th place finish, posting four rounds in the 60s. He's an emerging talent and worth chancing at this price.
Maverick Antcliff - 300/1 @ Betfred
Maverick caught our eye with his 31st place finish at the Celtic Classic two weeks ago. On first glance it was a fairly ordinary result but his Greens In Regulation stats were excellent over the final two rounds (he ranked first both days) and he was driving it nicely too. A three time winner in China last year, he's capable of getting in the mix this week.
In-play
In-Play Blog
30th August 2020
-12 Walters
-10 Hebert
-10 Kaymer
-7 Armitage
-7 Campillo
-7 Hojgaard
-7 Canter
Justin Walters opened up a five shot lead midway through yesterdays round but that was trimmed to just two shots going into today's final round. Leaders here don't have a great record and Walters will need to shoot under par to win again today with Kaymer and Hebert in close pursuit.
The top three golfers all have inspiration to draw upon and a win for any of them wouldn't surprise. As we mentioned yesterday, Walters has the anniversary of his fathers passing to spur him on. Martin Kaymer has inspiration having seen compatriot Sophia Popov win the AIG Women's Open last week and Hebert saw Romain Langasque win from off the pace at the Wales Open.
The case against the front three is that two are seeking their first win and the other hasn't won since 2014. Hebert looked poor with the driver in hand yesterday, Kaymer had a great day on the greens and Walters leads for the third consecutive day. None of these are insurmountable but with low scores at the time of writing (11am) and with the wind down (forecast to be a maximum of 10mph) we could see a challenge from a few adrift. With prices on the top three too skinny, we fancy a small play on an outsider.
1ptEach Way (1/4 1,2,3) Min Woo Lee - 66/1 @ 888Sport
This young lad has the power to really attack the course today and generate the birdie opportunities necessary. He starts 6 shots back but if Walters should falter he is only four off the pace. He had a really solid day yesterday, ranking inside the top 25 across GIR, Driving Accuracy, Driving Distance and Putts per GIR. He's a player with great potential and 66/1 is a price worth chancing.
28th August 2020
-9 Walters
-8 Hebert
-7 Waring
-6 Armitage
-6 Wiesberger
-6 Jordan
-6 Fox
Justin Walters leads with two rounds to go but Benjamin Hebert is the bookies' favourite to take the UK Championship title.
Walters is playing with the memory of his father's passing at the forefront of his mind, Friday being the one year anniversary of his passing. He recorded a 2nd place finish at the Portugal Masters not long after his death last year and recorded the same result at the same tournament not long after his mother's passing in 2013. Whilst likely to be inspired to post a high finish, we don't see him winning given the quality of the chasers.
Hebert is a winner in waiting on the European Tour having been a runner up three times last season. Likely to be inspired by Romain Langasque's breakthrough last week, he'll be looking to add to his six wins on the Challenge Tour, having recorded three each in 2011 and 2014. He's very likely to be in the mix on Sunday afternoon but at 9/2 there's no value.
One of our Six To Watch, Bernd Wiesberger, lurks three shots behind Walters and is very much in the mix.
With rain unlikely tomorrow we have selected two bets we like to make some progress on Moving Day.
2pts Each Way Ryan Fox (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 10/1 @ Boylesports
1pt Each Way Julian Suri (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 33/1 @ Boylesports
Ryan has only dropped one shot so far and that's very much a continuation of the consistency he has shown throughout the UK Swing. He has recorded four top 20 finishes from his last five starts and we think he's going to go close. Coming from a few shots back should suit and he's one to keep onside.
Julian is on the comeback trail, having missed a lot of golf in the past few years due to injury. As detailed in his Player Profile, when his driving accuracy is high he's capable of recording some really good finishes. He's ranked 18th and 8th in this category in rounds 1 and 2 so now is the time to back him.