Preview
Course Info (Galgorm)
Designer: Simon Gidman
Type of Course: Parkland, Short
Used Since: 2013
Fairways: Narrow
Rough: Thick in places
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazard: The course is bordered by the rivers Maine and Braid which come into play on numerous holes, as well as five lakes and the magnificent oxbow lake adjacent to the 14th hole.
Par 5's: 10th and 18th
Premium on: Accuracy
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The field is made up of men and women but the leaderboards will be split up.
Due to this, two courses will be used on Thursday and Friday - Massereene and Galgorm. Galgorm will host both weekend days.
The cut will be 60 and ties after Friday and a further cut of 35 and ties after Saturday.
Galgorm hosted the Irish Open in 2020 and previously hosted Challenge Tour events between 2013-2020,
Weather Forecast
Dry and warm throughout the week.
Thursday
Sunny. Wind 6mph
Friday
Sunny intervals. Wind 6mph
Saturday
Sunny intervals. Wind 8mph
Sunday
Sunny with possible rain showers. Wind 9mph
Trends
Winning score
Daniel Gavins won last year with a score of -13. In the eight years Galgorm hosted events on the Challenge Tour, the winning score was between -10 and -19. We should expect a score around -15.
Winning Profile
Daniel Gavins was world number 453 when he claimed the trophy last year. When Galgorm was used for the 2020 Irish Open, John Catlin ranked 137th in the world.
Correlating Courses
Valderrama is a similar tight tree lined course which demands accuracy, where Catlin has also won, as is Diamond Country Club which hosts the Austrian Open.
Course form
7 of the last 10 course winners were debutants and the other three had no course form to speak of.
Recent form
The past two winners at this venue have been in fantastic form prior to winning. Last year's winner, Daniel Gavins, had posted back to back top 10 finishes on the Challenge Tour. The 2020 winner, John Catlin, had placed 8th and 1st in his two previous events. Interestingly, the previous 3 course winners on the Challenge Tour had shown no sign of incoming form.
Stats Analysis
We will analyse the stats of the top two last year and top four in 2020 as there are no stats for the previous Challenge Tour events.
SG: Off The Tee
Last year, Gavins and Horsey ranked 29-116. In 2020, the top four ranked 34-31-42-32. It's important to be a solid driver but not exceptional.
Driving Accuracy
Last year, Gavins and Horsey ranked 15-103. In 2020, the top four ranked 10-23-27-51. Driving Accuracy is preferred over distance this week.
SG: Approach
Last year, Gavins and Horsey ranked 53-18. In 2020, the top four ranked 10-22-7-28. Strong iron play is important.
Greens in Regulation
Last year, Gavins and Horsey ranked 37-35. In 2020, the top four ranked 7-33-6-28. Confirms the importance of strong iron play.
SG: Around The Green
Last year, Gavins and Horsey ranked 6-13. In 2020, the top four ranked 23-49-20-14. Preferred but not essential.
SG: Putting
Last year, Gavins and Horsey ranked 17-33. In 2020, the top four ranked 25-4-39-8. Strong putting helps around here.
In-Play
Tough Holes
The 6th and 9th played as the hardest holes at Galgorm. The 10th at Massereene was the toughest hole all week though, playing 0.66 shots over par!
Birdie Holes
The 2nd at Galgorm is a short par 4 which played as the easiest hole last year. The short par 3 7th and par 5 10th played as the next two easiest.
Fast or Slow Start
Daniel Gavins opened up at Massereene last year with a one over par round of 71.
In 2020, Aaron Rai finished 2nd after leading on day one with a 65 but five of the top 10 started with a 70 or 71. Catlin came from four back in the final round to win by two.
In previous events, Tyler Koivisto was 4 behind after 36 holes on the Challenge Tour in 2020. Jack Senior in 2019 was 3 behind after 36. Callum Hill was 2 behind after 36 in 2018. It is important to be not too far off the pace but within touching distance.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Maverick Antcliff 150/1
Third and 26th in his last two starts at this venue indicate just how much he likes it. A straight hitter of the ball (he's 36th in Driving Accuracy this year), it wouldn't be a shock to see him go well.
In-play
ISPS Handa World Invitational In-Play Blog
14 August 2022, 7.20am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Ferguson |
-11 |
Catlin |
-8 |
Senior |
-7 |
Helligkilde |
-7 |
Syme |
-7 |
Virto |
-7 |
Round 2 Summary
Ewen Ferguson extended his lead to three shots after a solid display. He dropped his first shots of the week at Galgorm Castle with bogeys at 14 and 15 but bounced back with a closing birdie at the 18th.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"Today was such a grind. But I knew that I didn't feel great on the range before I went out and it was going to be a grind. I battled away and chipped and putted my way to a really good 68." Ewen Ferguson
Round 4 Weather
Light cloud, with the wind set to peak around 6-7mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Ewen Ferguson is a best price 10/11. We're on Ferguson pre-event at 25/1 and would obviously like to see him close the event out. He's been in a similar position already this season, having held a four shot lead going into the final round in Kenya. He struggled that day, going on to finish 8th. However, he's won in Qatar since then and having won his first event on Tour, he should cope with the demands of leading better than he did before.
John Catlin is a now 2nd favourite and he poses a significant threat. A course winner, having won the 2020 Irish Open here, he's a proven performer on a Sunday. He's the rightful 2nd favourite in our eyes.
Connor Syme is 9/1 third favourite. He'll be keen to challenge his good friend Ferguson for the title but we see no reason why he should be shorter in the betting than Marcus Helligkilde (11/1) at this point.
Where is the value?
We're in a strong position with Ewen Ferguson advised pre-event at 25/1 and Borja Virto advised after round one at 50/1. It was tempting to put Helligkilde up in the outright market but a solid round from Ferguson should see him lift the trophy and instead we'll play the young Dane in the three ball market.
Round 4 Bet
- 2.5pts Marcus Helligkilde to beat Jack Senior and Borja Virto 6/4 @ Betfair
Helligkilde has scored exceptionally well at Galgorm this week (-9 for his two rounds), only a poor round at Massereene in round two preventing him from challenging Ferguson at the top of the leaderboard. In contrast, Borja Virto has played Galgorm in only -2, his best work coming at Massereene. Jack Senior has a tendency to throw in a poor round on a Sunday (his final round 79 at the Irish Open a few weeks ago was particularly notable) and he's one we're happy to take on.
13 August 2022, 7.40am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Ferguson |
-9 |
Virto |
-8 |
Celli |
-7 |
Palson |
-7 |
Syme |
-6 |
Round 2 Summary
Ewen Ferguson wasn't able to replicate his opening round heroics but retains the lead going into the weekend.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"I missed a couple of putts that I had been making yesterday. They were good putts but kind of lipping out and yesterday they were kind of lipping in. You walk onto the next tee and when they lip in you feel amazing, and (when) you walk onto the next tee and they have just missed you feel a bit flatter. It was still a good day overall." Ewen Ferguson
Round 3 Weather
Sunny and warm once again, with the wind set to peak around 6mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Ewen Ferguson is a best price 5/2 with two rounds to go. We're on Ferguson pre-event at 25/1 and like his chances from here. He's one of only three players in the top eight to have won a DP World Tour event before and the only one to have won an event in the past two years. That recent winning experience may well give him the edge on Sunday.
Jordan Smith is one of those players in the top eight who do have a win on Tour. The Englishman has moved himself back into contention having been two over par for his opening five holes of the tournament. Odds of 7/1 are not unattractive given he has an excellent record at this course and went off favourite this week.
Connor Syme is joint 2nd favourite with Connor Syme. The Scot has done everything but win on Tour and will likely relish the opportunity to hunt down his close friend Ferguson. However, if it's a choice between Smith and Syme at the same price, we'd favour Smith.
Where is the value?
We're in a strong position with Ewen Ferguson advised pre-event at 25/1, Borja Virto advised after round one at 50/1 and Renato Paratore advised pre-event at 100/1. However, we expect to see those players at four and five under make a move in round three with perfect conditions forecast. With that in mind, there are two bets we want to place.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way John Murphy 50/1 @ Coral (1/5 1-4)
It was extremely tempting to side with Jordan Smith but with four each way places still available, we're content to look a bit further down the leaderboard and look for those players who offer win potential with each way value. John Murphy is one such player and we like odds of 50/1 on him this morning. He's just recorded back to back top 3 finishes on the Challenge Tour and has experience of being in contention on the DP World Tour, having finished 9th at the Alfred Dunhill Links last year. He trails Ferguson by five shots as it stands but but with doubts over some players near the top of the leaderboard, the each way places are all to play for.
- 0.5pts Each Way Robin Petersson 80/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-4)
Petersson finished 3rd at the Cazoo Classic only a few weeks ago and odds of 80/1 are too big to pass up. He only managed a level par score at Galgorm Castle in round two but three bogeys and a double bogey were the cause of that rather than a lack of birdies. He's a great putter and we're willing to take the chance his putter gets hot over the weekend, just as it did for Daniel Gavins last year at this event.
11 August 2022, 8.20pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Ferguson |
-9 |
Bland |
-5 |
Virto |
-5 |
Palson |
-5 |
Eleven Players Tied |
-4 |
Round 1 Summary
Our pre-event 25/1 selection Ewen Ferguson stole the show with two chip in eagles to take a four shot lead over the chasing pack. Richard Bland was the best of the morning scorers whilst he was joined by two outsiders in Borja Virto and Felix Palson.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
None
Round 2 Weather
Similar conditions to round one, another gloriously hot day in Northern Ireland with winds between 4-8mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Ferguson is now as short as 11/5 to go onto win and although it's not a price we would take, we really like his chances to go wire to wire now. He was very good under pressure in Qatar and although that win came from off the pace, it will be nice for him knowing he has what it takes.
The chasing pack isn't laced with quality and it may be his best friend on tour and playing partner Connor Syme who gives him the most trouble. The Scotsman finished very strong in Wales last week and will be aware he has time to cut into the lead over the next three days. He is favoured over Richard Bland and John Catlin at similar prices but both are perfectly suited to the test here.
Our other pre-event pick Santiago Tarrio is a live danger at 14/1 but they all will need a bit of help from Ferguson.
Where is the value?
One player looks to be underrated in the market this evening.
Round 2 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Borja Virto 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
The Spaniard is ranked just outside the top 500 in the world following some strong results on the Challenge Tour recently - FOUR top 10's in his last eight starts including a 3rd place. These results have come at a level not a million miles off this field, likewise his two wins on the Challenge Tour in 2015 show he can get over the line in similar company. He beat the likes of Callum Shinkwin, Jeff Winther and JB Hansen for these wins so he knows he can compete here and in 2nd place at 50/1 feels overpriced.