Event Info
Starts: 29th July 2021
Course: Galgorm Castle & Massereene, Northern Ireland
Par: Both Par 70
Length: Galgorm 7,005 yards and Massereene 6,827
2020 Champion: John Catlin (Irish Open)
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -11.31pts
Pre-Event Bets: -3.31pts
0.75pts EW Darius Van Driel 80/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.75pts EW Francesco Laporta 80/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.75pts EW Clement Sordet 125/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts EW Jayden Schaper 175/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-6)
0.25pts EW Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 300/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.25pts EW Bernd Ritthammer 300/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-6)
In-Play Bets: -8pts
29 July 2021 (-2pts)
1pt Each Way David Law 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
30 July 2021 (-3pts)
1.5pts Each Way John Catlin 28/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
1 August 2021 (-3pts)
1.5pts Each Way Justin Harding 22/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-3)
Preview
Course Info (Galgorm)
Designer: Simon Gidman
Type of Course: Parkland, Short
Used Since: 2013.
Fairways: Narrow
Rough: Thick in places
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazard: The course is bordered by the rivers Maine and Braid which come into play on numerous holes, as well as five lakes and the magnificent oxbow lake adjacent to the 14th hole.
Par 5's: 10th and 18th.
Premium on: Accuracy
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The field is made up of men and women but the leaderboards will be split up.
Due to this, two courses will be rotated Thurdsay and Friday - Massereene and Galgorm, the later will host both weekend days.
The cut will be 60 and ties after Friday and a further cut of 35 and ties after Saturday.
This is an even weaker field than last week, with only two players inside the top 100 teeing it up - Andy Sullivan and Justin Harding.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Lots of rain at the start of the week but dry from Friday onwards. Temperatures ranging between 13 and 18 degrees.
Thursday
Light Rain and a gentle breeze. Wind 10mph
Friday
Light Cloud and a gentle breeze. Wind 6-9mph
Saturday
Light Cloud and a gentle breeze. Wind 7-11mph
Sunday
Light Cloud and a gentle breeze. Wind 7-11mph
Trends
Winning score
Only once in last 8 years has winning score not been in between -10 and -19. With thw easier Massereene course in use for one of the rounds, we should expect it somewhere in the late teens.
Winning Profile
Catlin ranked 137th after having won two starts ago.
Correlating Courses
Valderrama is a similar tight tree lined course which demands accuracy, where Catlin has also won, as is Diamond Country Club which hosts the Austrian Open.
Course form
7 of the last 9 winners were debutants and the other two had no course form to speak of.
Recent form
John Catlin was in great form before winning here in 2020 but the previous 3 winners had shown no sign of incoming form.
Favourites or Outsiders
This could be a good opportunity for outsiders who have had more experience of the course on the Challenge Tour.
Stats Analysis
We will analyse the stats of the top four last year as there are no stats for the previous Challenge Tour events.
SG: Off The Tee
34-31-42-32. Not a key stat this week.
Driving Distance
84-52-48-41. Not necessary to compete.
Driving Accuracy
10-23-27-51. Driving Accuracy is preferred over distance this week.
SG: Approach
10-22-7-28. Strong iron play is important.
Greens in Regulation
7-33-6-28. Confirms the importance of strong iron play.
SG: Around The Green
23-49-20-14. Preferred but not essential.
SG: Putting
25-4-39-8. Strong putting helps around here.
In-Play
Tough Holes
459 yard par 4 8th was the toughest hole on course in 2020. 4 of the 6 toughest holes were on the front 9 - 1,3,5,8.
Birdie Holes
The 2nd and 4th are short par 4's (336 and 323 yards) and they played stroke index 18 and 13. The short par 3 7th played stroke index 15. Par 5 10th played stroke index 16 and Par 5 18th is stroke index 17.
Fast or Slow Start
Aaron Rai finished 2nd after leading on day one with a 65 but five of the top 10 started with a 70 or 71. Catlin came from four back in the final round to win by two.
In previous events, Tyler Koivisto was 4 behind after 36 holes in 2020. Jack Senior in 2019 was 3 behind after 36. Callum Hill was 2 behind after 36 in 2018. It is important to be not too far off the pace but within touching distance.
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Inplay
ISPS Handa World Invitational In-Play Blog
1 August 2021, 10am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Smith | -15 |
| Horsey | -14 |
| Hillier | -11 |
| Two players Tied | -10 |
It appears to be a two horse race at Galgorm with Jordan Smith and David Horsey creating a bit of separation on the leaderboard. Smith is one clear of Horsey and four ahead of of halfway leader Daniel Hillier.
As mentioned in the last two blogs, Smith has been flaky in contention since his win four years ago and he admitted in his post round interview that the putter saved him quite a few times yesterday. Two putts of 20ft for par and a birdie putt of 15ft on the 9th kept his momentum, and to his credit he was pretty solid on the back nine.
Horsey has now improved every day with rounds of 67-65-64. He too holed his fair share of putts yesterday and the same question will be asked whether he can keep that going. He is the perfect fit for the course but was unfancied arriving with form figures of MC-MC-MC-52-MC.
With Horsey not having won since 2015 and Smith since 2017, it gives hope to the chasers but they have a lot of work to do. We did see last week how quickly a big lead can disappear though ,and we would expect the likes of Kawamura and Harding to close the gap.
Our pre-event 80/1 play Darius Van Driel is one of those with a slight chance and we’re hopeful he can at least secure the place. We will add one play for the final round.
Round 4 Bet
- 1.5pts Each Way Justin Harding 22/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-3)
Justin is six shots back of Smith but was also six behind Elvira last week before reaching a playoff. He is bogey free for his last three weekend rounds and commented yesterday about how happy he is with his game at the moment. If Smith and Horsey are to stumble, he seems most likely to come through and with Betfair offering 3 places, he could still earn us some profit by coming third.
Surprise package Daniel Hillier has leapfrogged Jordan Smith at the top of the leaderboard and takes a one shot advantage into moving day. The world number 678 from New Zealand has yet to record a top 10 on the European Tour and has a best finish of 9th on the Challenge Tour. With 36 holes to go, it would be a massive ask for him to continue that level of golf and we should expect nerves to slow him down. For that reason, he is still available at 9/2, while firms rate Smith 10/3 favourite. Smith has also flattered to deceive in contention recently, and it was evidenced by his double bogey on his opening hole yesterday. He recovered well in the end but doubts remain, and it may be a profitable strategy to lay both on the exchange. David Horsey and Garrick Porteous sit three shots back and between them the pair haven’t won for 10 years. Neither inspire enough confidence to get involved at 14/1. Nacho Elvira and Eddie Pepperell are big threats from four back although we can’t see much value at anything under 20/1. There are likely to be a few movers from the pack today with 20 players between -4 and -6. Justin Harding, Masahiro Kawamura and John Catlin will be amongst those looking to make their move and it would be no shock to see a considerably different leaderboard this evening. The final 36 holes will be played at Galgorm Castle with the forecast looking dry with not much breeze. John is currently six shots back after a slow round at Massereene but now that we’re back at Galgorm for the next two days he should make his move. He was firing at the pins on yesterday's coverage on his way to a 66 and knowing that he overcame a four shot deficit on Sunday to win here last year should serve him well. He is mentally stronger than the majority of the leaderboard and three wins in the last year tell you everything you need to know.
Jordan Smith leads by two after a back nine of 29, including 7 birdies at Galgorm Castle. Incredibly, he missed two birdie putts under 12ft for the two holes he parred on the back nine. He is now best price of 4/1 to convert from here. Smith said after his round that he had been struggling with his iron play recently but it all came together today. Whether he can continue that level of play remains to be seen but his price has gone now. It’s often easy to be convinced by approach play as good as Smith displayed, but a word of warning – he shot 65 at this course last year to lead on day one and followed it with rounds of 71-70-69 to finish 7th. It’s enough to put us off, although, it has to be said, he looks close to a 2nd victory on tour after his 3rd place in Denmark back in May. Galgorm played easier than Massereene today, with Eddie Pepperell the only player in the top 9 who plays Galgorm tomorrow. Masahiro Kawamura has continued his form from Wales and is considered Smith's biggest threat at 9/1. Andy Sullivan is next best at 12/1 after bogeying the par 5 last. With Smith’s hot start, we don’t rate either value at these odds. We have one play we would like to add before the weekend. David was our first reserve this week but odds of 70/1 were slightly too short for us. An opening 67 at the tougher Massereene has left him in 10th place and his recent form suggests he can kick on from here. The Scotsman has made his last 6 cuts, including 18th in Wales last week and 7th at the Porsche European Open. It's the most consistent golf of his career and let's not foget he is already a European Tour winner in 2019 at the ISPS Handa Vic Open. Back David to challenge for the ISPS Handa double!
31st July 2021, 10am
Player Total
Hillier
-11
Smith
-10
Horsey
-8
Porteous
-8
Round 3 Bet
29th July 2021, 7pm
Player Total
Smith
-8
Schmid
-6
Drysdale
-6
Kawamura
-5
Round 2 Bets
