Event Info
Starts - 20th August 2020
Course - Celtic Manor GC
Par - 71 (36-35)
Length – 7,354 yards
Defending Champion - N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +10.2pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
MC Lorenzo Gagli - 50/1
1st Romain Langasque - 66/1
T63rd Jack Senior - 80/1
T68th Ashley Chesters - 100/1
T53rd Will Besseling - 110/1
T8th Jorge Campillo -150/1
In-Play Bets: +10.2pts
20 August 2020 (+10.2 Points)
1pt Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) Matthew Southgate - 40/1 @ Skybet
1pt Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) Sami Valimaki 66/1 @ Skybet
Preview
Course Info
The European Tour returns to Celtic Manor after it hosted the Celtic Classic last week.
The Celtic Manor Resort has three 18 hole courses but it is the 2010 course this week. Built for the Ryder Cup in 2010, it is an amalgamation of nine existing holes with a further nine designed by Ross McMurray.
It is a par 71 with four par 5s and five 3s. With all par 3s all capable of playing 185+ yards, and several of the par 5s generally unreachable in two, solid iron play is essential. The 15th hole is a driveable par 4 for those who want to take on the risk.
Weather Forecast
Summary
The weather may have a greater impact this week with the forecast indicating a greater chance of showers and breezier conditions. Players who have an early tee time on Thursday look like they will gain a significant advantage.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise an abundance of caution (credit: Chase Koepka and the PGA Tour) in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
We saw Alex Levy and Romain Wattel withdraw from the Celtic Classic last week, with Levy subsequently testing positive.
Trends
Before the Celtic Classic, the 2010 course had not hosted a European Tour event since 2014. It was, however, a regular European Tour stop between 2008-2014, hosting the Wales Open. In the last five runnings we saw winning scores range from -6 to -15, and a -18 win at the Celtic Classic, so it can play very differently depending on wind and weather.
There's little to be gained from analysing the early round performance of past winners here. Winners have started with rounds as low as 65, but equally Graeme McDowell won in 2010 despite shooting an opening 72. Sam Horsfield won last week shooting an opening 67, sitting three shots behind Thomas Pieters.
Horsfield was under par every round, but no winner of the Welsh Open between 2010-2014 shot four rounds under par. Don't despair if your pick has one slow day.
Horsfield bucked a trend when winning here as players from the UK & Ireland generally have a poor record at Celtic Manor. Over the seven Welsh Opens held at the 2010 course, we only saw one UK & Ireland winner (Graeme McDowell in 2010) and two years where players from these countries have claimed runner up spots (2014 and 2010).
As Steve Rawlings points out in his excellent Betfair preview, the 2010 course correlates well with Le Golf National, home of the French Open. Players who have performed well in Paris have a good record here in Wales.
The UK Swing put together by the European Tour has been dominated by English golfers, with three wins out of four. It's also worth noting that in the four events to date, every tournament bar the English Championship has seen UK golfers occupy at least 50% of the top 5 places.
Stats Analysis
At first glance the winners of the last seven Welsh Opens (2008-2014) have all been shorter, more accurate golfers.
Joost Luiten ranked 7th for Greens in Regulation when the the course was last used in 2014 and given he is a course specialist (three top 4 finishes between 2012-2014), we should look out for players who are in his mould.
Sam Horsfield won the Celtic Classic with strong Greens in Regulation stats and a hot putter, further backing up the need to identify players who are solid ball strikers.
Water is in play on over half the holes here so those players who are wild off the tee or inaccurate with approach shots often pay a high tariff.
In Play
Sam Horsfield came from one off the pace last week to take the Celtic Classic. Previous Wales Opens indicate this is generally a track where it pays to be leading (or close to the lead) - three of the last four winners having held the lead going into the final round. However, winners can come off the pace with Gregory Bourdy coming from three shots back in 2013 and Graeme McDowell winning from four shots back in 2010.
Interestingly, only one of the past six third round leaders (covering the Celtic Classic and previous Wales Opens) have bettered par in the final round. It is not a course for players who struggle to get the job done and if we have a weak third round leader we should definitely seek to take them on.
Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Lorenzo Gagli - 50/1 @ William Hill
Lorenzo ticks a lot of boxes this week. He sits high up in the season rankings for Greens in Regulation (11th) and played nicely tee to green last week. He has good tee times (12pm on Thurs and 7.55am on Fri) and the windier conditions should suit. He only recorded five bogeys last week and four of those came in the second round.
Romain Langasque - 66/1 @ 888 Sport
Romain didn't play last week but recorded a very tidy 26th place finish at the English Championship the week before. His Greens in Regulation stats improved every round that week. He will relish the windier conditions this week and he's very much a player ready to win on the European Tour.
Jack Senior - 80/1 @ William Hill
Four rounds under par and a solid 22nd place at the Celtic Classic has set Jack up for a nice week here. An early tee time on Thursday should see him out with the wind at its lowest and he can get off to a good start. His Greens In Regulation stats were promising last week and he's capable of a win after a win on the Challenge Tour last year.
Ashley Chesters - 100/1 @ Betfred
Ashley got off to a slow start last week as he shot a disappointing opening round of 72. He went on to play his remaining three rounds in 8 under par and displayed an improvement in Greens In Regulation each day. He's got a nice early tee time on Thursday so should enjoy the best of the draw. Tougher scoring conditions should suit him better and allow his ball striking to come to the fore.
Will Besseling - 110/1 @ Bet365
Will finished 11th last week, firing four rounds in the 60s. Encouragingly, his Greens in Regulation stats improved every round and he was 1st in this category in the final round. He ranks first in this category for the season so we know he's going to be a solid play this week. He may get the worst of the draw so caution is advised but 110/1 is a standout price.
Jorge Campillo - 150/1 @ 888 Sport
Jorge is put up solely on price. Given he has won in 2019 and 2020 he doesn't deserve to be such high odds in a field like this. Windy conditions will suit him this week and whilst his recent form is poor, he won in Qatar earlier this season after a run of missed cuts. He drove the ball nicely at the Celtic Classic and given the fact he will have had better preparation (by virtue of the fact he hasn't flown in from the US PGA) we may well see him flourish.
In-play
In-Play Blog
20th August 2020
-5 Smith
-5 Syme
-3 Kitayama
-3 Soderberg
-3 MacIntyre
-3 Shinkwin
It's a high quality leaderboard after the opening 18 holes with several pre-event favourites positioned nicely. The weather forecast for round two is wind in excess of 20mph throughout the day and we could see a significant change at the top come tomorrow evening. With that in mind it is a day for small plays and further review at the weekend. That said, we have two small bets on players who are capable wind players.
1pt Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) Matthew Southgate - 40/1 @ Skybet
1pt Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) Sami Valimaki 66/1 @ Skybet
Matthew ranked 4th for Greens In Regulation in his opening round when shooting an opening 69. He finished 27th here last week but the windier conditions should suit him better. He's recorded a couple of second place finishes on the European Tour now and he's a player who will likely make the breakthrough sooner rather than later. His record in the UK is excellent and he's a solid play ahead of the second round.
Sami won earlier this season at the Oman Open on a windy course with water in play on several holes. The test this week is not dissimilar and he is a nice price to add a second title to his resume. He was 2nd Greens In Regulation for his first round and at -1 he's nicely positioned. He finished 6th here last week and it's a nice sign that before his win in Oman he posted a 7th place finish.