Investec South African Open 2022

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In-play

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Event Info

Starts: 1st December 2022
Course: Blair Atholl GC, SA
Par: 72 (35-37)
Length: 8,233 yards
2021 Champion: Daniel Van Tonder

Course Info

Style: Parkland
Designer: Gary Player
Fairways: Wide/Average
Greens: Large
Par 5's: 1st, 5th, 10th 13th & 18th
Hosted Since: 2022
Premium on: Length off the tee

Weather Forecast

Thurs: Cloudy. Wind 8-10mph.
Fri: Possible thunderstorm. Wind 8-10mph.
Sat: Cloudy. Wind 9-11mph.
Sun: Possible Thunderstorm. Wind 8-10mph.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

- Blair Atholl has five par 5s and measures over 8,200 yards! The course website states this is the 2nd longest course in the world.

Trends

Winning score
The course has only hosted one Sunshine Tour event, the Blair Atholl Championship, in October 2021. Luke Brown won with a score of -15.

Stats Analysis

We have no stats from previous tournaments to analyse.

Quotes

“I definitely had to stay patient, you might feel like you should be making more birdies, but it’s not that easy on this course. I tried not to look at what the others were doing" Luke Brown

In Play

Tough Holes
The 560 yard 16th hole is listed as the hardest hole on the scorecard.

Birdie Holes
The five par 5s are expected to offer birdie opportunities but with four of these holes playing over 600 yards, it may only be the longest hitters who can get near the green in two shots.

Fast or Slow Start
Luke Brown was 10th after the opening round of the Blair Atholl Championship. We shouldn't read too much into one tournament though.

In-play

2022 South African Open In-Play Blog

3 December 2022, 6:35pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Lawrence	-18
Sordet	-16
Fahrbring	-12
Wu	-11

Round 3 Summary

Thriston Lawrence and Clement Sordet spurred each other on to effectively make this a two horse race, four clear of 3rd place. Our 100/1 in-play tip Ashun Wu sits in 4th place which would get a full each way return if he can hold his position.

Notable Round 3 Quotes

"It was good fun, myself and Clément played really well, sort of feeding from one another." Thriston Lawrence

"It’s going to be a challenge to catch him tomorrow but I’ll give it my best. It’s great to be back in the last group and I’m just going to have fun and we’ll see at the end." Clement Sordet

Round 4 Weather

Sunny and hot. Wind 12-14 mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Thriston Lawrence remains favourite at 4/9 and he is undoubtedly still the man to beat. He shot a respectable 69 when leading about the European Masters to win but there is a slight concern about a couple of loose shots today. He is putting beautifully though and we see that continuing despite the pressure.

Clement Sordet is available at 14/5. He won on the Challenge Tour in March here in South Africa from off the pace, shooting a 67 in the final round so can't be discounted. More recently though, he shot a 74 in the Swiss Challenge to fall from 4th to 13th.

Where is the value?

We don't see value in backing Lawrence at 4/9 but expect him to have too much for Sordet. We are happy to cheer on Ashun Wu for a top 4 finish tomorrow.

Round 4 Bet

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+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

2nd December 2022, 6:35pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Lawrence	-13
Strydom O	-11
Sordet	-10
Maas	-10
Fahrbring	-9
Two Players Tied	-8

Round 2 Summary

Thriston Lawrence continued his excellence with a round of 67 to take a two shot lead after day two of the Investec South African Open. 2nd place Ockie Strydom shot the round of the day with a bogey free 63. Play was supspended with some players yet to finish their front nine.

Notable Round 2 Quotes

"I'm very comfortable with my game at the moment and I'm just enjoying it." Thriston Lawrence

Round 3 Weather

Sunny and hot. Wind 6-10 mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Thriston Lawrence remains favourite at 13/10 and he is undoubtedly the man to beat. He was mighty impressive closing his win at the European Masters and confidence appears to be very high.

For that reason, we are not keen on Ockie Strydom and Clement Sordet who are 2nd and 3rd in the betting. Both players have never won on the DP World Tour and can't be considered the most clinical in contention.

Where is the value?

With no 2/3 Balls available and only 3 places available in most firms, options are scarce considering our expectation of Lawrence to be a strong leader. We like one each way play at three figures though.

Round 3 Bet

0.5pts Each Way Ashun Wu 100/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 1-4)

Ashun was a winner in Africa earlier this year in Kenya, which was his fourth DP World Tour win. He has shown strong consistency in recent weeks, posting four top 30's in his last five starts, mostly strong fields. That is a really good indicator where his game is at and whilst he is seven back currently, he was four back in Kenya at halfway and won by four in the end, showing he is capable of making up ground.

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+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

1st December 2022, 7:05pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Lawrence	-8
Fisher	-7
Fahrbring	-7
Jamieson	-6
Senekal	-6
Schmid	-6

Round 1 Summary

Thriston Lawrence impressed with a round of 64 to take a one shot lead after day one of the Investec South African Open.

Notable Round 1 Quotes

"It was good fun. I'm quite familiar with this golf course. I played a Sunshine Tour event (Blair Atholl Championship) last year and managed to shoot 64 in my last round to get the course record. It was great fun today, I really played nicely, managed to drop a few putts that I didn't do last week. It was nice fun.......My father gave me a nice tip. Stand a little further away from the golf ball. He just saw something." Thriston Lawrence

Round 2 Weather

Rain showers possible. Wind 10-15 mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Thriston Lawrence is 7/2 favourite. It's hard to think he won't contend for the title come Sunday evening but he's a fraction short in the betting for our liking.

Scott Jamieson is next in the betting at 12/1. The Scot's sole DP World Tour win came in South Africa but he makes little appeal given the way he struggles at the business end of tournaments.

Where is the value?

JJ Senekal continues to impress having fired an opening round of 66 and finds himself priced up at 66/1. He's certainly playing well enough at the moment to threaten the each way places at a nice price.

Round 2 Bet

0.5pts Each Way Luke Brown 200/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)

Brown was the winner of the Blair Atholl Championship last year on the Sunshine Tour and got off to a good start this week with a round of 67. A missed cut last week was largely down to a poor opening round of 76 but he was 2nd on his previous start on the Sunshine Tour. A win this week would be a significant step up in his career but 200/1 is a big enough price to tempt us in.

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