Event Info
Starts - 30th July 2020
Course - Forest of Arden GC
Par - 72 (36-36)
Length – 7,215 yards
Defending Champion - N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -11pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
T6th Mikko Korhonen - 45/1
T10th Aaron Rai - 50/1
MC Brandon Stone - 66/1
34th David Horsey - 100/1
22nd Matthew Southgate - 125/1
MC Adrian Otaegui - 125/1
In-Play Bets: -11pts
31 July 2020 (-2 Points)
2pts Callum Shinkwin Top 20 finish 4/1 @ 888 Sport
1 August 2020 (-5 Points)
1.5ptsEach Way (1/4 1,2,3,4) Alexander Bjork - 16/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook
1ptEach Way (1/4 1,2,3,4) Mattieu Pavon - 28/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook
2 August 2020 (-4 Points)
1ptEach Way (1/4 1,2,3) JB Hansen - 40/1 @ Bet365
1ptEach Way (1/4 1,2,3) Robert Rock - 66/1 @ Bet365
Preview
Course Info
Designed by Donald Steel, Forest of Arden GC was a regular European Tour stop in the late 90s and early 2000s. However, it has not been used since the 2005 British Masters - it is only because the course has a large onsite hotel that the venue returns as part of the European Tour's six tournament UK swing.
It is a traditional par 72 with four par 5s and four 3s. Located in the Midlands it is a parkland track with plenty of water in play. Accuracy is very much the order of the day.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise an abundance of caution (credit: Chase Koepka and the PGA Tour) in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Looking at past events here we can see accurate hitters have enjoyed success. Past winners of the English Open when it was played here include Pater O'Malley, Colin Montgomerie and Robert Allenby. When the British Masters was played here Greg Owen was also a winner.
Interestingly there appears to be a possible correlation with the Arnold Palmer designed K Club in Ireland. Darren Clarke is a multiple winner at the Forest of Arden and past champion at the K Club when it hosted the European Open.
Peter O'Malley won the 2001 English Open and is a two time runner up at the K Club. Michael Campbell won at the K Club in 2002 and finished runner up here in 2000. Colin Montgomerie had an excellent record at both events (albeit he had an excellent record at most places in the early 2000s).
The reason we mention this link is that the 2016 Irish Open was played at the K Club, giving us a more recent look at who might be suited to this week's test.
Stats Analysis
Given that past champions at the Forest of Arden include O'Malley, Monty, Owen and Allenby we can say that driving accuracy is very much a key stat. Those four were fairway-finding machines and we should look for players of their ilk.
In Play
We have no recent in-play guidance.
Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Mikko Korhonen - 45/1 @ Bet365
Mikko posted a 29th place finish last week on his return to competitive European Tour action. He has won in each of the last two seasons on the European Tour so won't be overawed by the quality of field. He is another accurate driver, ranking 22nd this year in Driving Accuracy and 19th last season. Looking at the link we identified to the K Club, Mikko finished 23rd at the 2016 Irish Open.
Aaron Rai - 50/1 @ Spreadex
If we are looking for a player who can be described as Mr Accurate on the European Tour then Aaron Rai is one of the names topping the shortlist. He ranked 3rd for Driving Accuracy in 2019 and is 5th this season. He ranked 9th last season for Greens In Regulation and although he currently sits 60th in 2020 can be expected to improve upon that. A 21st place finish last week sets him up nicely and he'll be looking to add to his sole European Tour win to date.
Brandon Stone - 66/1 @ Spreadex
At first glance Brandon's 68th place finish last week was extremely disappointing, but a disastrous 79 on Friday saw him fall well down the leaderboard. A classy operator on his day, he's inconsistent and isn't always easy to predict. Odds of 66/1 are sufficiently tempting, however, and he's one to keep an early eye on. A three time European Tour winner who won the Scottish Open in 2018, beating a high class field.
David Horsey - 100/1 @ Spreadex
David finished 14th last week to continue the good form he demonstrated on the 1836 Tour prior to the European Tour resuming. All four rounds were under par, further indicating his consistent form. He ranks 16th in driving accuracy and was 21st last year so should be attacking the pins from the fairways. He stated on Twitter that he had "been working hard technically over lockdown, ball striking/flight improved massively so really pleased with the progress."
Hasn't won since 2015 but is a four time European Tour winner. Still only 35, he's entering the prime of his career.
Matthew Southgate - 125/1 @ Spreadex
Like David Horsey, Matt posted four under par rounds last week to demonstrate he's in decent form ahead. A 35th place finish was a solid effort and given he's a player who thrives playing in the UK and Ireland he's got to be under consideration at a three figure price. He's another accurate player, ranking 7th in Driving Accuracy in 2019 and 46th this season. As we mentioned above, the course has a possible link to the K Club and Matt finished 4th at the Irish Open in 2016.
Adrian Otaegui - 125/1 @ Betvictor
Odds of 125/1 for a player who has two European Tour wins in the past three years are frankly disrespectful in a field of this depth. He's another who posted a decent 16th finish at the 2016 Irish Open at the K Club. He finished a credible 35th last week, but making too many errors. His long game is sufficiently accurate to compete here.
Note - Whilst it's unlikely he will win, it is worth keeping an eye out for David Drysdale as he makes his 500th appearance on the European Tour. As a rookie he played in the final group at the 2002 English Open and states in his European Tour blog that "I’m more looking forward to playing Forest of Arden again than I am making my 500th appearance this week." He missed the cut last week after a poor first round but shot a bogey free round of 2 under par on Thursday.
In-play
In-Play Blog
2nd August 2020
-14 Horsfield
-13 Farr
-13 Korhonen
-12 Garcia Rodriguez
-12 Paisley
-11 Detry
-11 Rozner
-11 Bjork
-11 Bland
-11 Hansen
-11 Hebert
-11 Pavon
Sam Horsfield threatened to run away with the event yesterday, opening up a six-shot lead after a blistering start to Round 3. But he played his last 9 holes in 4 over, which should lead to an exciting finish today. 13 players are within 3 shots, and given we've seen as low as 62 this week, many of the players up to 6 or 7 shots back will feel they still have a chance.
Our halfway selections Alexander Bjork and Mattieu Pavon are still right in this 3 shots back. Our Friday bet Callum Shinkwin is tied 24th, needing to get into the top 20 for that to land. Given the doubts surrounding Horsfield's ability to close, we are going to add two more players who won't be scared to go low on the final day.
1ptEach Way (1/4 1,2,3) JB Hansen - 40/1 @ Bet365
1ptEach Way (1/4 1,2,3) Robert Rock - 66/1 @ Bet365
JB is an extremely volatile player and pars are always rare, but if this is one of the days where he can get on one of those birdie/eagle streaks, which he often does, the three-shot deficit could disappear very quickly. He has had 14 birdies and 2 eagles in his last 36 holes and if he can limit the mistakes he has a great chance of being in the mix.
Robert was on our radar at the beginning of the week with previous course form here and a nice finish at last week's British Masters - but the bookmakers were onto this and his odds seemed short as a result. Now he is four shots back and has improved every day with rounds of 71, 69, 66. If he can continue that trend with anything better than 66 it could well be enough. At 43, Robert won't feel the pressure as much as most and is in fact a successful coach now so this is basically a free hit for him. If the others begin to struggle, Robert may be the man to take full advantage.
1st August 2020
-13 Garcia Rodriguez
-13 Horsfield
-10 Detry
-9 Rozner
-9 Bjork
-8 Farr
-8 Pavon
-8 Jimenez
-8 Korhonen
-8 Levy
Miguel Angel Jimenez's 707th appearance may have dominated Thursday's headlines but a sensational 63 from Sam Horsfield took yesterdays. There is now a clear two way tie at the top, with Horsfield sitting alongside day one leader Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez. Neither have won on the European Tour before and with two rounds to go the field still have a chance.
For the second consecutive week, Horsfield shot a low round in the 60s to move into contention. He backed up his 61 at the Betfredd British Masters with a 73 and it is hard to see him shooting another low one today. He has never won on any tour and whilst there is no doubting his talent, his ability to cope under pressure remains unproven.
Garcia Rodriguez has three wins to his name but all have come on the Alps Tour. A win in this event would be a significant step up on anything he has achieved to date. He was in contention at the Austrian Open several weeks ago and after a bright start faded away during the final round to finish 4th.
With question marks over the ability of the leaders to get the job done, we have identified two players who could sneak come from off the pace and snatch this.
Finally, our 45/1 pre-event selection Mikko Korhonen is still very much in the mix and as a two time winner he should not be discounted either.
1.5pts Each Way (1/4 1,2,3,4) Alexander Bjork - 16/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook
1pt Each Way (1/4 1,2,3,4) Mattieu Pavon - 28/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Alexander is the only European Tour winner in the top 5, having won the 2018 Volvo China Open. After a stellar 2018 where he reached the fringes of the top 50 in the world, he had a disappointing 2019. Looking to bounce back this year, he's already posted a 6th place finish in Qatar and we cannot overlook the fact he turned 30 in June. As we know, a landmark birthday can have a profound impact on a golfer and it would not be a surprise to see Alexander reel in the leaders this weekend.
Like Alexander, Matthieu came into 2020 off the back of a disappointing 2019. He is a player who is yet to win on the European Tour but is a player who has potential if coming from off the pace. Sitting five shots back at the halfway stage should suit him nicely and with the leaders potentially vulnerable, this could be the week we see Matthieu make his breakthrough. His only dropped shots to date have come on the 9th hole and if he can figure out a way to play that hole and add a few more birdies, he'll be right in contention come Sunday.
31st July 2020
-10 Garcia Rodriguez
-8 Larrazabal
-8 Jimenez
-7 Farr
-6 Hojgaard
-6 Chesters
-6 Walters
The rare appearance of the sun in the British Isles prompted a Spanish 1-2-3 on the leaderboard after round 1. Fittingly, one of those three was Miguel Angel Jimenez, who was making a record 707th start on the European Tour.
With benign conditions 78 of the 132 players were under par and with the sun set to shine again tomorrow we should see much of the same. We are happy to let tomorrow play out before getting involved in the outright market but we do have one speciality bet.
2pts Callum Shinkwin Top 20 finish 4/1 @ 888 Sport
Callum sits in 19th place after the first round, shooting a 4 under par 68. A solitary bogey at his second hole was followed by 5 further birdies, giving a very solid feel to his round. He's a proven performer in the UK and goes well when conditions are firm and fast, which they will start to tomorrow. As we mentioned in the preview, the 2016 Irish Open provides correlating course form to this course and Callum finished 19th at that event.
Callum is a relatively new dad, so has the Nappy Factor working for him. He also has a favourable early tee time tomorrow, and with that we expect him to make further progress up the leaderboard.