Preview
Course Info
Designer: Kyle Phillips
Type of Course: Heathland
Used Since: 2021
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Heather and gorse await if too wide
Greens: Large
Water Hazard: Average
Par 5's: 4th, 7th, 12th and 18th.
Premium on: Accuracy
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
This event was played in September last year but moves to May this time around.
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Cloudy with a gentle breeze. Wind 10mph
Friday
Scattered showers. Wind 15mph
Saturday
Sunny Intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 8mph
Sunday
Sunny Intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 11mph
Trends
Favourites or Outsiders
Last year, we saw a massive shock with Broberg winning and the week after a major can always throw up a shock with the best players tired. Outsiders should be chanced.
Correlating Courses
Designer, Kyle Phillips, has also designed Kingsbarns, Dundonald Links, Yas Links and The Grove. Phillips doesn't have a specific design style so we don't place much emphasis on form from events held at these courses. The course website describes the course as "a Heathland golf course, which makes it accessible to any golfer. The numerous bunkers are laid out beautifully and the tricky water hazards seamlessly blend in with the background of dunes, heath and gorse."
Course form
The course was used for the first time in 2021. Those who have played the course before will have the benefit of last year's experience but we shouldn't be put off backing those who didn't play last year.
Recent form
Last year's champion, Kristoffer Broberg, had no recent form to speak of. Most players have not played since the Soudal Open (12th - 15th May) so don't be too disheartened if your favoured selection hasn't had a strong finish in the past few weeks.
2021 Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
Last year's runner-up, Matti Schmid, was 2nd in this category last year. However, Broberg (76th) and 3rd place finisher, Alejandro Canizares (126th), were well down the rankings.
Driving Distance
As with SG: Off The Tee, Schmid was inside the top 5 but the other two in the top 3 were outside the top 65.
Driving Accuracy
As with SG: Off The Tee, Schmid was inside the top 5 but the other two in the top 3 were outside the top 50.
SG: Approach
Two of the top 3 were in the top 8 in this category. Odd man out was Kristoffer Broberg, who was 30th.
Greens in Regulation
Matti Schmid was the only one of last year's top 3 to be in the top 40 in this category. The German was 5th.
SG: Putting
As you may have guessed by now, Kristoffer Broberg was superb on the greens on his way to victory. He topped the putting stats.
2021 Quotes
"I practice here a lot, it is one of the best practice facilities we have in Holland, so a lot of the top players –even the Belgian players Thomas Detry and Thomas Pieters–and I think that will tell you how good this golf course is. It is a great design, it is in great shape and hopefully we have a great week." Joost Luiten
"Bernardus does feel like a home away from home. They have welcomed me ever since I first started coming here two years ago and have been happy for me to practice here and use the facilities which is nice.The course is amazing, so I am really excited to see what they do with everything this week. “All the Dutch pros play here and you can see why." Thomas Pieters
"The greens are very big but if you are on the wrong side you are going to three-putt all day, and then driving it, there is still a bit of room, but you have to drive it well and if you can fly it about 270 in the air it gets a lot wider, so I am trying to hit it hard this week." Martin Simonsen
"I found it really enjoyable, it’s got a real links feel to it. I play links golf at home, so I felt right at home." Niall Kearney
"I like the course a lot. If you play bad shots you will get in trouble but if you hit good shots you get plenty of chances, and that is how a course should play. If the wind picks up it is definitely going to be a bit trickier but it is great, especially the back nine, it’s nice for the eye as well." Max Kieffer
"It was good. I like this course a lot because if you can hit it far from the tee you can carry some bunkers 270 metres out, so I have been fortunate to do that, so it has been nice." Marcus Helligkilde
"The golf course is very flowing, there is not a lot of rough and quite a few fairways go into fairways, sort of like a Pinehurst vibe to it, and I really like it. It is a lot different to what we play and it is a good change. It feels quite linksy, the fairways do with the grass, and obviously when you get it in the fescue or whatever you want to call it, it is quite sandy beneath it, like a long bunker shot with some grass involved, so it doesn’t really affect it too much if you have a decent lie so I will be trying to keep it out of that stuff as much as possible." Sam Horsfield
2022 Market Favourites
Thomas Pieters 20/1
Fresh off a busy couple of weeks, finishing 9th in his homeland then making the cut at the PGA Championship to finish 71st. The Belgian has a strong Dutch Open record having won here in 2015 and never worse than 30th in five attempts, including 9th at Bernardus last year. He spoke in last week's DP World Tour blog that travelling back and forth from America at the start of the season was tiring and had fatigued his golf swing so it may be a week to avoid the favourite despite his record here.
Bernd Wiesberger 20/1
Another who made the cut at the PGA last week, finishing 30th. Surprisingly, the Austrian has only had one top 10 this year with the putter holding him back mostly. It was noticeable Kristoffer Broberg topped the putting stats here on route to victory so Wiesberger will need to improve in this department if he is to win. With finishes of 2nd, 9th and 12th in four starts in the Netherlands, he is a danger but would be preferred at a tougher test.
Nicolai Hojgaard 40/1
The youngster teed it up at the PGA but missed the cut by eight shots. He is yet to make a cut in America, but is a different animal on the DP World Tour. Recorded his first ever Tour top five in Netherlands so will have fond memories and the course should suit with lots of room available off the tee. With the travel involved and six missed cuts in eight starts since that win in Dubai, others are preferred.
Rasmus Hojgaard 30/1
Has had the benefit of a couple of weeks rest since the British Masters. In contrast to his brother, Rasmus has made every cut so far this season and his only top 10 came stateside so is yet to leave his mark on the DP World Tour in 2022. Both of his DP World Tour wins came after at least a week off and he has to be one to keep onside in fantasy or matchups this week. Making his debut in the Netherlands.
Thorbjorn Olesen 33/1
Completed a remarkable comeback from his troubles, winning the British Masters a few weeks ago. Hasn't been seen since on Tour and if he's over the hangover he will be in confident mood of more success. Never had a great record in the Netherlands at the peak of his powers with three missed cuts and best finish of 50th in four attempts and may be a week to look at others.
In-play
Dutch Open In-Play Blog
28 May 2022, 8:30pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Wallace |
-10 |
| Perez |
-10 |
| Migliozzi |
-9 |
| Soderberg |
-9 |
| Fox |
-9 |
| Hend |
-9 |
| Gouveia |
-8 |
| Meronk |
-8 |
| Bjork |
-8 |
Round 3 Summary
Matt Wallace and Victor Perez have climbed to the top of the leaderboard on a day when low scores were hard to come by. Tricky pin positions and a swirling breeze made for a tough test and it was telling that the best score of the day was -4. Round 1 leader, Joost Luiten, showed just how tricky it was with a round of 79.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"I like it (leading), I know some guys don’t like it and would rather be chasing than being in front. I mean, if you were to choose I would rather be in front all of the time, I think the mindset is the same regardless, I think the shots are the shots and you just have to hit them, maybe it takes a bit of the pressure of some of the guys but I would rather be in front if I can." Victor Perez
"I wouldn’t say it is a comfortable situation yet but having done it the last few weeks, I certainly feel pretty happy to be there. They are the nerves you want to get going into the last round." Ryan Fox
"I’m pleased with the way I hit it and yesterday I said that I needed to do that this weekend, and one day down, I need to do that again tomorrow." Matt Wallace
Round 4 Weather
Rain is forecast for the morning starters but it should clear by the afternoon and the players will face a similar wind speed to the previous days (around 15-20mph).
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Nothing separates Matt Wallace and Victor Perez at the top of the leaderboard and nothing separates them at the bookmakers. Both are priced at 4/1 and a victory for either would go a long way towards getting their career back on track.
We advised Wallace at 80/1 pre-event to subscribers and he's the man to beat in our opinion. Aside from sloppy approach shots at the 7th and 11th, the Englishman was extremely solid and looked in control of his ball. He's a three time winner on Tour and there's cautious optimism he makes it four tomorrow.
Victor Perez can't be discounted either. He was joint leader after 54 holes for his sole win on Tour at the Alfred Dunhill Links in 2019. It's been a while since he was in serious contention though and there may be some nerves. He has a ⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating given mixed performances in the mix.
Ryan Fox is priced up just behind the leaders at 9/2. The Kiwi bogeyed his first two holes in round three and looked like he may drop down the leaderboard. It was to his credit that he didn't and he remains firmly in contention.
It was notable that Fox referenced recent near misses in his post round interview and that may well help him. We've seen a number of winners on the DP World Tour win shortly after a disappointment and Fox can't be discounted on that basis.
Of the others near the top of the leaderboard, Guido Migliozzi has to be a threat given his ability to close out tournaments. The Italian has a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating.
Where is the value?
There are nine players within two shots of the lead, so the outright market is still very much of interest.
Round 4 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Rasmus Hojgaard 70/1 @ BetVictor (1/4 1-3)
We're in a strong position going into the final round with the aforementioned Wallace at 80/1. If you read our in-play blogs the past two days you'll have read we are also on Guido Migliozzi (90/1), Sebastian Soderberg (66/1), Marcel Schneider (50/1) and Kristoffer Broberg (50/1). We have five of the top 12 and we're looking for one of them to get the win.
Rasmus Hojgaard was our headline selection pre-event and he appeared to play his way out of contention with a round of 75 on Friday. He steadied the ship with a round of 70 today and he goes into the final round five shots back. That shouldn't worry the young Dane too much given he's had great success coming from behind in his short career. Wins at the Mauritius Open and Omega European Masters were achieved when overturning one and four shot deficits respectively, whilst his win at the British Masters came when five back.
With the course potentially softened with some morning rain, long hitting Hojgaard can fire at pins and attack the course. He's a threat to the leaders if he posts a score.
27 May 2022, 9:10pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Gouveia |
-10 |
| Li |
-9 |
| Wallace |
-8 |
| Meronk |
-8 |
| Perez |
-7 |
| Korhonen |
-7 |
| Fox |
-7 |
| Migliozzi |
-7 |
| Senior |
-7 |
Round 2 Summary
It's all change at the top as yesterday's top three all slip outside the top 12 and Ricardo Gouveia has taken over at the top. Gouveia's 66 was the best score of the afternoon starters and only Haotong Li's 63 in the morning bettered him on the day.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"Actually yesterday I felt off the tee I played better than today. With this course, if you are off a little bit, it’s so easy to have a bogey, so today I put every ball in safer places and created a lot of birdie chances from there."" Haotong Li
"I had a couple of close finishes, I have been disappointed a couple of times because I felt like I have it in me to get a win, but I will just keep trying." Adrian Meronk
"I have had a really good mental attitude this week, so it is all about executing the shot for me: the swing, seeing it and executing it, and crack on from there." Matt Wallace
Round 3 Weather
Conditions will be slightly cooler for round three with a 10-20mph wind forecast. Rain is not in the forecast.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Adrian Meronk is the 11/2 favourite and is expected to remain near the top of the leaderboard over the weekend. He's done everything but win on the DP World Tour and he'll be hoping this is the week he makes his breakthrough. Two runner-up finishes and four 3rd place finishes over the past two seasons highlight just how consistent he's been but he was poor when leading after 54 holes in Qatar and there is too much doubt to warrant an investment at 11/2.
Haotong Li is 2nd favourite and he would edge favouritism over Meronk in our book. Li has shown he's capable of converting opportunities and was impressive when holding off Rory McIlroy for his 2018 Dubai Desert Classic win.
Ryan Fox is the only other player in single figure odds. The Kiwi is available at 17/2. We had thought Fox may have been fatigued this week given it is his 6th event in a row and he travelled back from the USA on Monday. However, he's shown no signs of that so far. Whether the previous weeks catch up with him over the weekend remains to be seen.
Matt Wallace and the leader, Ricardo Gouveia, are both 10/1. Gouveia tops the putting charts so far and Wallace would be preferred over the weekend.
Where is the value?
Kristoffer Broberg was 13th after round 1 last year, so there's every reason to look for a player a few shots back in the outright market.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Marcel Schneider 50/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
We like Matt Wallace's chances over the weekend but we are already on him pre-event at 80/1 so instead we focus on a couple of larger prices who could well yield each way returns with the possibility of a victory. Schneider is the first of our selections given his fine approach play so far. The German ranks 2nd SG: Approach this week and finds himself four shots off the pace. Two double bogeys have been costly but he's nicely positioned for a move over the weekend. Two wins last year on the Challenge Tour mark him out as one to watch and he's been generally solid when in contention on the DP World Tour in the last few years.
- 0.5pts Each Way Sebastian Soderberg 66/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-4)
Sebastian was extremely unlucky not to win the British Masters a few weeks ago and as we've often seen on the DP World Tour, a near miss can inspire a player to a win a few weeks later. Soderberg is five shots off the pace but he's no stranger to going close from off the pace (in addition to the British Masters, both 2nd place finishes last year came from at least three shots behind after 54 holes). Had Soderberg won at the Belfry it is unlikely we would see the 66/1 we currently do and we're happy to invest in him over the weekend.
26 May 2022, 8:55pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Luiten |
-7 |
| R Hojgaard |
-6 |
| Pepperell |
-6 |
| Kuorhonen |
-5 |
| Perez |
-5 |
| Pavan |
-5 |
| Schneider |
-5 |
Round 1 Summary
Joost Luiten thrilled the home fans with a round of 65 on the opening day of the Dutch Open. Conditions were slightly trickier for the afternoon starters as the wind picked up before dying down late afternoon.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"I have been struggling a bit with my game, so it was great to see the score today and for some reason I just love playing in front of the home crowd......It was tough in the afternoon, the wind was blowing, there were some tricky holes into the wind so anything under par would have been a good score I think in the afternoon, but I was three or four under after six so you adjust what you want to make and I think seven under is good." Joost Luiten
"I thought I played well today, especially my front nine, I didn’t make many mistakes, rolled in a few long putts. I played decent on the last nine holes as well, just made a few mistakes that cost a couple of bogeys but to finish with a birdie was nice." Rasmus Hojgaard
Round 2 Weather
The weather forecast indicates conditions will be similar to round one. It is forecast to be cloudy with the wind expected to pick up to 15-20mph in the afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Joost Luiten may lead but it is Rasmus Hojgaard who is now the favourite with the bookmakers. Hojgaard was a 25/1 pre-event selection for our subscribers and we're certainly encouraged by the start he's made. A three time winner on the DP World Tour, he spoke confidently after his round and he's expected to kick on.
Luiten is a best price 11/1 and he finds himself 2nd in the betting. He has an early tee time tomorrow and is a proven winner at home so he's certainly under consideration. He led twice after the opening round last season, finishing 7th and 8th, so he's expected to hang around but we're looking for a bigger price.
Adrian Meronk, Jordan Smith and Thomas Pieters are the only other players under 20/1 in the betting and all three are considered a threat.
Where is the value?
Kristoffer Broberg was 13th after round 1 last year so there's every reason to look for a player a few shots back in the outright market.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Kristoffer Broberg 50/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
We backed Kristoffer last year after the first round at 100/1 and he went on to win. We're getting 50/1 this year but it's a price we're happy to take given the way he played here last year. He also has the Nappy Factor going for him, having recently welcomed a new arrival into the world.
- 0.5pts Each Way Guido Migliozzi 90/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-5)
Guido has been threatening to post a big finish for a few weeks now. He's been unable to put four solid rounds together but we're willing to take the chance at huge odds. He's a proven closer if in contention and it was notable his head didn't drop today when he played his opening seven holes in +2. He's four shots behind Luiten but has a morning tee time and is worth the risk at 80/1 and above.
- 0.5pts Each Way Ross McGowan 200/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
Ross isn't the most consistent of performers but he does pop up with a big finish from time to time if the test suits. He won the Italian Open in 2020 and came close to winning the European Masters last year. He finds himself 4 shots off the lead after round 1 but his putter can get hot and Kristoffer Broberg showed last year how effective that can be here.
