Starts: 1st July 2021
Course: Mount Juliet Estate, Ireland
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,250 yards
2020 Champion: John Catlin
Overall Profit/Loss: -9.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: -8.5pts
1pt EW Rasmus Hojgaard 50/1 @ Skybet/Betfair (1/5 1-8)
1pt EW Thomas Pieters 50/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Darren Fichardt 80/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Daniel Van Tonder 100/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Jorge Campillo 100/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Benjamin Hebert 300/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
In-Play Bets: -1pt
1 July 2021 (-2pts)
0.5pts EW Min Woo Lee 80/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Kalle Samooja 80/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
2 July 2021 (+3pts)
0.75pts EW Adrian Otaegui 22/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
0.5pts EW Johannes Veerman 40/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
3 July 2021 (-2pts)
2pts Justin Harding Win Only 8/1 @ Unibet
Designer: Jack Nicklaus
Type of Course: Parkland, Tree Lined.
Used Since: 1993. Not played Irish Open here since 1995.
Water Hazards: In-play on half of the holes.
Par 5's: 5th, 8th, 10th and 17th
Premium on: Birdies/Putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The course also hosted the 2002 and 2004 WGC American Express Championships won by Tiger Woods and Ernie Els.
The Irish Open was meant to be played here last year. It is not a traditional links test.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Looks set to be dry Thursday and Friday with some light rain arriving for the weekend. Approx 14-22 degrees celsius with gentle winds.
Sunny intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 3-7mph
Sunny intervals and a gentle breeze.. Wind 3-10mph
Light rain and a gentle breeze. Wind 7-10mph
Light rain and a gentle breeze. Wind 4-9mph
The WGC American Express Championships were played here in 2002 and 2004 with winning scores of -25 and -18. We should expect a figure near the 20's to be winning.
Every winner here has been a class act. Tiger Woods and Ernie Els won the two WGC's played here and Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer and Sam Torrance won the three Irsih Opens here. The top players usually prevail.
Any tree lined/parkland courses.
Els finished 23rd in 2002 before his win in 2004. Woods was playing his debut like most others in 2002.
Els was in terrific form heading into the WGC here in 2004, as was Woods. Both had consecutive top 10's. Recent form appears to be a big bonus.
No obvious nationality traits.
We will assess the stats of the two winners of the WGC played here in 2002 and 2004 - Tiger Woods and Ernie Els.
2-21. Distance is important here.
62-24. Driving Accuracy isn't percieved as essential but as always it helps.
Greens in Regulation
11-3. Strong iron play is important.
1-1. Solid play around the greens was the key stat.
Putts per GIR
1-6. In low scoring events, it's extremely important to putt well.
See 'Closing stretch' below.
Outwith the four par 5's, the short par 4 1st is a good birdie opportunity.
Fast or Slow Start
The par 4 16th and 18th holes ranked 3rd and 1st for difficulty in 2004, whereas the par 5 17th was the easiest hole to offer a little respite.
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Irish Open In-Play Blog
3rd July 2021, 6.25pm
Lucas Herbert has retained his lead at 15 under par and Johannes Veerman, who we advised at 40/1 yesterday, is now his closest challenger one shot back. Justin Harding shot the round of the day 65 before the winds kicked up and he’s three behind.
Herbert appeared to be slightly disappointed with his round as he played his last 8 holes in two over, albeit in challenging conditions. He admitted he had left the door open for a few others but seemed confident he will be able to kick on again tomorrow. At just over evens, he seems about right but we wouldn’t be rushing to back those odds after his back nine today.
Veerman has surpassed our expectations by getting himself into the position he’s in and is now a 4/1 chance to win. He, too, looked slightly nervy on the back nine and played his last 8 holes in level par. He mentioned post round that he knows Herbert and his caddie well so hopefully that will increase his comfort levels.
If the leaders do the feel nerves, it will most likely be Justin Harding who takes advantage. He finished his round eagle-birdie just as the stronger winds were arriving and now finds himself in a great spot.
It will be a big ask for Rikard Karlberg, Dale Whitnell and Francesco Laporta to win from four back, but being off the pace might suit them. There are plenty of bigger names at 9 and 10 under par who could ask a question of the leaders with a low round.
The current forecast for tomorrow is 10mph winds with some light rain.
Round 4 Bet
- 2pts Justin Harding Win Only 8/1 @ Unibet
With question marks over the leaders after the back nine today, we would like to get Justin onside as a two time European Tour winner. He was impressive when winning in Kenya this year, shooting 66 in the final round to hold his lead. He also shot 66 to win the Qatar Masters in 2019 so he is a player who can produce the goods on a Sunday. He doesn’t mind a bit of wind either so the conditions tomorrow should suit.
2nd July 2021, 8.55pm
|Four players tied||-9|
Lucas Herbert bounced back from a double bogey on his third hole to fire a 2nd round 67 and he now leads the DDF Irish Open by two shots.
Herbert's lead means that the betting has a familiar look to it, with the young Aussie at the front of the market at 5/2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout remains at 8/1 after a round of 68. The quality South African is an obvious danger and is generally not one to write off. However, his driving has been poor so far this week and for the time being we're happy to swerve the 8/1.
Andy Sullivan has forced his way into contention with a joint best of the day and now second favourite at 9/2. We had Sullivan last week at the BMW International Open and it will be enormously frustrating if he manages to improve on last week's 5th place. He's one to be respected over the weekend and we know he's capable of reeling in the leader. Odds of 9/2 aren't for us though with plenty of birdies remaining over the final 36 holes.
The betting might be similar but the quality of Herbert's round means that there are now only eight players within four shots of the lead. The event is now looking more stretched and those outside the top 10 will now have to go low to catch the leaders.
We'll likely see some rain showers during the 3rd round and the wind is forecast to blow around 10mph throughout the day.
Yesterday's 80/1 in-play tip, Min Woo Lee, shot a second 68 and finds himself in 9th place. We're obviously hoping he can make further progress up the leaderboard, along with our pre-event tips. We have two further bets ahead of the third round.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Adrian Otaegui 22/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
Adrian fired a 2nd round 66 to move within four of the lead. He's a player we liked at the start of the week due to his recent good form but left him out in favour of Jorge Campillo. We don't want to miss out entirely on Adrian this week and are happy to back him at 22/1. He's a player who is not afraid to go low once the putter heats up, as evidenced by his 2nd to Andy Sullivan at the 2020 English Championship and a convincing win at the 2020 Scottish Championship. Back Adrian to remain hot this week and challenge for the title.
- 0.5pts Each Way Johannes Veerman 40/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
With Boylesports offering favourable each way terms we want to get Johannes onside. He's made only one bogey over the opening two days and passed up a couple of good birdie opportunities. He's yet to win on the European Tour but he's a player we think is capable of winning, particularly on a track where a low final round from off the pace could see him take victory. Odds of 40/1 are worth a small interest.
1st July 2021, 7.55pm
|15 players tied||-5|
A morning round of 64 from Lucas Herbert was enought to see the young Australian take the lead and go as short as 6/1 in the betting.
Herbert has been playing nicely the past few weeks with top 20 finishes in his last two starts on the PGA Tour and he's a player who is capable of backing up a low round with another one. However, he's yet to win when out in front and that has to be a concern at the odds on offer.
Take into account the quality of the players in the group at five under par and Herbert's price looks a tad short. We should remember that Herbert has yet to win when front running and for the time being, we'll leave him out the staking plan.
Two of those players, Christiaan Bezuidenhout (8/1) and Tommy Fleetwood (8/1), are next in the betting and it wouldn't be a surprise to see either progress up the leaderboard. Fleetwood looked assured in his opening round and Bezuidenhout has been playing nicely recently, even if the results haven't backed that up. The pair recorded a solitary bogey between them and on that kind of form they'll be around the lead on Sunday.
With 36 players within four shots of the lead, we'll be looking for players with an early tee time at larger prices.
We'll see warm and dry conditions for the second round. The wind will likely pick up in the afternoon, just as it did in Round 1.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Kalle Samooja 80/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
We're big fans of Kalle and wouldn't be surprised to see him win soon on the European Tour. An opening round of 68 has set him up nicely and with an early tee time he'll be looking to make progress tomorrow. He's more than capable of going low over the next three days and we want him on our side.
- 0.5pts Each Way Min Woo Lee 80/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
Min Woo started strongly last week before falling away to a 42nd place finish. He's another player capable of making plenty of birdies and we're willing to set aside last week's disappointment and back him again. A talented youngster with a European Tour win to his name already, he's capable of winning again.