Preview

Starts: 18 January 2024
Course: Emirates GC, Dubai
Par: 72 (35-37)
Length: 7,428 yards

2024 Dubai Desert Classic Tips

2024 Dubai Desert Classic Course Info

Course Designer: Karl Litten
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Average
Greens: Bermuda
Water Hazards: On 9 holes
Par 5's: 3rd, 10th, 13th, 18th
Hosted Since: 1989
Premium on: Strong driving and approach.

Last 10 Course Champions

2023 - Rory McIlroy
2022 - Viktor Hovland
2021 - Paul Casey
2020 - Lucas Herbert
2019 - Bryson DeChambeau
2018 - Hao Tong Li
2017 - Sergio Garcia
2016 - Danny Willett
2015 - Rory McIlroy
2014 - Stephen Gallacher

How the weather should affect this week

With hot temperatures expected and not too much wind to challenge the players, scoring should be low. Keep an eye out for Friday's forecast where morning starters should enjoy calmer conditions, slight PM-AM bias.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of
-This is the first full field event in 2024 for the DP World Tour. You may see rust from some players.

2024 Dubai Desert Classic Trends

Winning score
With the exception of 2020 and 2022, the winning score has been between -16 and -24 in the last eleven editions.  Severe wind in 2020 meant the winning score was -9 and testing conditions in 2022 saw Viktor Hovland win with -12.

World ranking
World ranking of the last eight winners prior to their win was 1-5-27-223-5-60-15-19 (most recent first). Winners are generally shorter odds.

Correlating Courses
Dom Pedro, Ras Al Khaimah, Jumeirah Golf Estates, East Lake. 

Course form
Absolutely crucial.  Of the last twelve winners, ten had posted a top 20 prior to winning.  The only players who hadn't were Haotong Li and Viktor Hovland, who had posted a top 40 finish in their only appearance prior to winning. We value course form highly when making our Dubai Desert Classic picks.

Recent form
Haotong Li won in 2018 after missing the cut in and Lucas Herbert won in 2020 after a 67th place finish. In 2021, Casey was 8th in his previous start. 2022 winner Viktor Hovland was 5th the week before whilst Rory McIlroy was making his first start of the year in 2023 but carried strong momentum from the end of 2022. 

Rust
Until McIlroy's win last year, every champion in the past nine years had teed it up in the calendar year prior to winning.  As the event now plays as the second event of the year, we may see more winners playing their first event but shaking off the rest certainly helps.   

First Round Leader
Five of the last six first round leaders at the Dubai Desert Classic were afternoon starters who teed off between 12.30pm and 1pm.  In the last eleven years, six of the FRL's teed off between 12.30pm and 1pm.

Stats Analysis

Strokes Gained stats are available since 2018 on the DP World Tour. Preference is for a strong driver who finds a hot putter.

SG: Off The Tee
The past six champions have ranked 1-2-6-5-11-38 (latest year first) in this category. Key stat in recent years, although it should be noted Patrick Reed ranked 113th off the tee last year and lost to McIlroy by a single shot. 

SG: Approach
The past six champion rankings have been 24-3-2-74-16-27 (latest year first). Strong approach play goes a long way here. 

SG: Around the Greens
Windy conditions in 2020 meant short game was at a premium and this was evident as Herbert and runner up, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, ranked 5th and 3rd in this category.  However, McIlroy ranked 45th last year whilst Hovland ranked 85th in 2022 despite the poor scoring. Paul Casey ranked 19th in 2021. The the two winners previously ranked 46th and 36th. Short game is not key here. 

SG: Putting
The winner generally needs to putt well.  The past six champions have ranked 11-18-57-18-5-3 in this category.  It should be noted that he greens in 2021 were exceptionally poor and were ripped up immediately after the tournament ended.

Par 4 Scoring
Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland both ranked inside the top 2 of the previous season long par 4 standings. The breakaway leaders in each of the past three editions have ranked top 10 for par 4 scoring. 

In Play Golf Betting Advice

Tough Holes
Par 4's 1st, 6th and 9th traditionally play as the hardest on the course.

Birdie Holes
The four par 5s (3rd, 10th, 13th, 18th), played the easiest last year and need to be taken advantage of.

Fast or Slow Start
In the last 11 years only three winners have opened with a score worse than 67 in round one.  Eight of the past eleven had been leading after the third round.  It is not a course to play catch up unless conditions make it tough.

Closing Stretch
The 17th and 18th both rank among the five easiest holes on the course.  However, players must negotiate water up the 18th hole and we saw Christiaan Bezuidenhout hit his 3rd shot at the 72nd hole in 2020 into the water.

What will it take to win the 2024 Dubai Desert Classic?

1. Strong SG: Off the tee stats
2. Strong desert form, with at least a previous top 20 at Emirates. 
3. Preferably shaken off the rust already this year (exceptions can be made for those who finished 2023 with strong momentum).   
4. Strong Par 4 scoring stats in 2023 calendar year
5. Inside the top 30 in the world rankings. 

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