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2024 DP World Tour Championship Tips

2024 DP World Tour Championship Event Info

Starts: 14th November 2024
Course: Earth Course, Jumeriah Golf Estates, Dubai
Par: 72
Length: 7,675 yards
2023 Champion: Nicolai Hojgaard

2023 DP World Tour Championship Course Info

Course Designer - Greg Norman
Fairways - Wide, undulating, well bunkered
Rough - Bermuda
Greens - Large, undulating, Bermuda, well bunkered, lots of run off areas. 12 on Stimpmeter
Par 5s - 2nd, 7th, 14th, 18th
Hosted Since - 2009

2024 DP World Tour Championship Weather Forecast

Thursday
Light rain in the afternoon. Max wind 16mph.

Friday
Light rain in the morning. Max wind 11mph.

Saturday
Sunny and moderate breeze. Max wind 10mph.

Sunday
Sunny and moderate breeze. Max wind 9mph.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

The field is limited to the top 50 players on the Race to Dubai rankings.

Rory McIlroy currently leads the Race to Dubai.

2024 DP World Tour Championship Trends

Winning score
Since 2015, the winning score has ranged from -15 to -21, with last year being -21. We expect a similar figure this week.

Course Form
Twelve of the last thirteen winners have had a previous top 10 at the Earth Course. Jon Rahm is the only debutant to win since Robert Karlsson in 2010. Desert form is also preferred.

Incoming Form
Twelve of the last thirteen winners had a top 10 in their previous 3 starts. 

Nationality
14 of the last 15 winners at the Earth Course have been European.  However, Collin Morikawa won in 2021 and there are several non-European golfers with good records in this event so take this trend with a pinch of salt.

Age
Eight of the last nine winners were in their twenties.  Danny Willett was the exception and he was 31.  Youngsters are definitely preferred.

2024 DP World Tour Championship Stats Analysis

Summary
Strokes Gained stats are available since 2017. One thing they don't show is the importance of driving distance on the Earth Course, so we have included that also.

Driving Distance
Every winner since 2009 has ranked 16th or better for distance. 11 out of those 15 winners were inside the top 10 in this category. It is a big advantage to be a long hitter at the Earth Course.

SG: Off The Tee
The last seven winners have ranked 17-25-10-8-4-19-5 (most recent first) in this category. Strong drivers prosper here.

SG: Approach
The last seven winners ranked 4-2-10-35-4-2-10 (most recent first) in this category. Strong iron play is usually required but Matt Fitzpatrick (2020) showed you can win with a great putting week.

SG: Tee To Green
The last seven winners ranked 6-2-3-8-1-6-6 (most recent first) in this category.  As you'd expect, a strong all round game is required to win this week.

SG: Around The Green
The last seven winners ranked 31-2-6-7-4-33-27 (most recent first) in this category. Sharp short game preferred but not essential.

SG: Putting
The last six winners ranked 6-2-14-1-9-10-9 (most recent first) in this category. A hot putter is also usually required at the Earth Course.

2024 DP World Tour Championship In Play Advice

Tough Holes
The 4th, 9th and 17th were the hardest on course.

Birdie Holes
The four par 5s (2nd, 7th, 14th and 18th) played as the easiest four holes last year.  

Fast or Slow start
Hojgaard led after round one last year but round three leader, Matt Wallace, was five back after round one and made up the ground. The top three after round one in 2023 would all go on to finish inside the top five.  Winner in 2022, Matt Fitzpatrick, was 2nd after round one.

The top four in 2019 were all in the top four after 18 holes! The top three in 2018 were all in the top ten after 18 holes. You don't want to be too far behind at the Earth Course. Backing players with hot starts in-play could be advantageous.

2024 DP World Tour Championship Tips

In-play

2024 DP World Tour Championship In-Play Blog

16th November 2024, 7:25pm (UK time)

2024 DP World Tour Championship Round 3 Conditions

Sunny with a moderate breeze.

2024 DP World Tour Championship Round 4 Weather Bias?

Sunny with winds 15-20mph.

2024 DP World Tour Championship Round 4 Outright Market Summary

Our 60/1 pre-event selection, Antoine Rozner, retained a share of the lead but Rory McIlroy remains favourite.  McIlroy can now be backed at a best price of 13/10.

The world number three leads the SG: Tee to Green stats and is very much the man to beat.  However, McIlroy certainly lacked the killer instinct in the latter half of 2024 and failed to close out tournaments he really out to have won.  Much has been made of McIlroy's recent swing changes, which he hoped would stand up when under pressure, and it will be interesting to see if those tweaks result in a win.  Despite previous failings, his odds aren't unattractive.

Rasmus Hojgaard will be hoping to emulate his brother, Nicolai, who lifted the trophy here last year but Rasmus has yet to prove himself as a front runner and has done his best work when coming from off the pace.  Five 54 hole leads have come and gone without a win but he will take heart from bettering McIlroy at the Irish Open earlier this year.  We'd want a slightly bigger price than 7/2 on the young Dane.

Antoine Rozner, paired with Rory McIlroy, got off to a slow start in round three and may well be one to watch now that he is in the penultimate group for the final round with a less intimidating presence alongside him.  Jesper Svensson and Rozner are both capable of final round fireworks and it wouldn't be a surprise to see either go low.

DP World Tour Championship Round 4 Bets

15th November 2024, 1:45pm (UK time)

2024 DP World Tour Championship Round 2 Conditions

The wind didn't materialise and we saw some low scoring as a result.

2024 DP World Tour Championship Round 3 Weather Bias?

The forecast is for winds of 12-18mph but we should approach with caution as it said the same about today when there wasn't much breeze. With that said, earlier starters scored better today so maybe a slight advantage there. 

2024 DP World Tour Championship Round 3 Outright Market Summary

The favourites remain the same but the tournament is more open than it looked yesterday with McIlroy and Hatton having to settle for a pair of 69's. Our 60/1 pre-event selection Antoine Rozner now leads by one whilst Joaquin Niemann is now only two back of the leader. There are some strong contenders in the group three and four shots back too - Shane Lowry, Rasmus Hojgaard, Matt Wallace and Tommy Fleetwood. We put up Fleetwood yesterday at 18/1 and the putter started to heat up on his back nine today, he looks a big threat. Given McIlroy and Hatton's troubles today, we will likely add one more pick.

DP World Tour Championship Round 3 Bets

14th November 2024, 8:45pm (UK time)

2024 DP World Tour Championship Round 1 Conditions

The wind didn't cause too much problems but some tricky pin positions and thick rough kept the scores down.

2024 DP World Tour Championship Round 2 Weather Bias?

Earlier starters appear to have the best of the conditions with the wind around 8mph at 9am, picking up to 15mph at 2pm onwards.

2024 DP World Tour Championship Round 2 Outright Market Summary

Both pre-event favourites share the lead with Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton sharing the lead on 5 under par. Although bound to be in the frame come Sunday, neither make appeal at 15/8 and 3/1 with the current weather forecast. We should be cautious taking them on though, they are the obvious class acts of the field and it's going to take a mighty effort to topple them. 

DP World Tour Championship Round 2 Bets