Preview
Event Info
Starts: 17th November
Course: Earth Course, Jumeriah Golf Estates, Dubai
Par: 72
Length: 7,675 yards
2021 Champion: Collin Morikawa
Course Info
Course Designer - Greg Norman
Fairways - Wide, undulating, well bunkered
Rough - Bermuda
Greens - Large, undulating, Bermuda, well bunkered, lots of run off areas. 12 on Stimpmeter
Par 5s - 2nd, 7th, 14th, 18th
Hosted Since - 2009
Weather Forecast
Summary
Warm and sunny all four days.
Thursday
Sunny and gentle breeze. Max wind 8mph.
Friday
Sunny and moderate breeze. Max wind 12mph.
Saturday
Sunny and moderate breeze. Max wind 13mph.
Sunday
Sunny and moderate breeze. Max wind 16mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The field is limited to the top 50 players on the Race to Dubai rankings but the top 53 get in this week due to Thomas Pieters (wife expecting a baby), Will Zalatoris (injury) and Collin Morikawa deciding not to play.
There are various permutations on who can win the season long Race to Dubai, which may have an impact on player performance. We will try to keep on eye on how this affects things as the week progresses.
Trends
Winning score
Since 2015, the winning score has ranged from -15 to -21. We expect a similar figure this week.
Course Form
Ten of the last eleven winners have had a previous top 10 at the Earth Course. Jon Rahm is the only debutant to win since Robert Karlsson in 2010. Desert form is also preferred.
Incoming Form
Ten of the last 13 winners had a top 10 in their previous 3 starts.
Nationality
Twelve of the last 13 winners at the Earth Course have been European. However, Collin Morikawa won last year and there are several non-European golfers with good records in this event so take this trend with a pinch of salt.
Stats Analysis
Summary
Strokes Gained stats are available since 2017. One thing they don't show is the importance of driving distance on the Earth Course, so we have included that also.
Driving Distance
Every winner since 2009 has ranked 16th or better for distance. Ten out of those 13 winners were inside the top 10 in this category. It is a big advantage to be a long hitter at the Earth Course.
SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 10-8-4-19-5 (most recent first) in this category. Strong drivers prosper here.
SG: Approach
The last five winners ranked 10-35-4-2-10 (most recent first) in this category. Strong iron play is usually required but Matt Fitzpatrick (2020) showed you can win with a great putting week.
SG: Tee To Green
The last five winners ranked 3-8-1-6-6 (most recent first) in this category. As you'd expect, a strong all round game is required to win this week.
SG: Around The Green
The last five winners ranked 6-7-4-33-27 (most recent first) in this category. Sharp short game preferred but not essential.
SG: Putting
The last five winners ranked 14-1-9-10-9 (most recent first) in this category. Preference is on ball striking for the Earth Course.
In Play
Tough Holes
The par 4 9th hole was once again the toughest last year. The 4th, 8th, 12th, 13th, 16th and 17th were the only other holes to play over par in 2021.
Birdie Holes
Three of the four par 5s (2nd, 7th, 14th) played as the easiest four holes last year. Surprisingly, the 11th and 15th holes were easier than the par 5 18th hole.
Fast or Slow start
Fitzpatrick was 2nd after round one last year. The top 4 in 2019 were all in the top 4 after 18 holes! The top 3 in 2018 were all in the top 10 after 18 holes. You don't want to be too far behind at the Earth Course. Backing players with hot starts in-play could be advantageous.
In-play
DP World Tour Championship In-Play Blog
19th November 2022, 6pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Rahm |
-15 |
Fitzpatrick |
-14 |
Noren |
-13 |
McIlroy |
-12 |
Hatton |
-12 |
Round 3 Summary
Round three couldn't have went much better for us as Jon Rahm came from four behind to take a one shot lead. Rory McIlroy also made his move as Fitzpatrick and Hatton failed to get going all day.
Round 4 Weather
Partly cloudy early then sunny and windy. Wind 15-20mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rahm is now 5/4 favourite so we should be in confident mood with our tickets at 6/1. Rahm was sensational in his last two final rounds on the DP World Tour, both times shooting the low round of the day at the Open De Espana and BMW PGA. We should expect a competent performance and he will likely have to be beaten with a low round.
Fitzpatrick is next in the betting at 3/1 but he has looked out of sorts, missing more fairways than usual. The pressure of the race to Dubai appears to be weighing heavy and we feel he may come up short.
McIlroy is a big danger now and the temptation is to cover him at 9/2. The wind looks to be a bigger factor tomorrow and we prefer Rahm in those conditions so we will keep our fingers crossed that Rory doesn't bring his best.
Where is the value?
We expect Rahm to close this out now and there is no other play that interests us.
Round 4 Bet
18th November 2022, 7:40pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Fitzpatrick |
-12 |
Hatton |
-12 |
Noren |
-9 |
Arnaus |
-9 |
Rahm |
-8 |
Round 2 Summary
Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton couldn't be separated and have a three stroke lead over the field, four over Jon Rahm, and seven over Rory McIlroy who played list last three holes in 4 under par. .
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"I feel like I've generally played some pretty good golf. We got a little unlucky on the back nine, which I feel like it stalled our momentum a little bit." Tyrrell Hatton
"Just got to keep pushing on, just keep playing how I feel like I'm playing right now. I feel really comfortable with where my game is at, particularly after three weeks off, and looking forward to the weekend." Matt Fitzpatrick
"I felt like I started forcing the issue on 14 and 15 today, played those two holes in one over which wasn’t great. Re-setting for the last three holes, my goal was to play them in two under and I played them in four under, which was really nice." Rory McIlroy
Round 3 Weather
Sunny and warm, becoming partly cloudy and breezy by afternoon. Wind 10-15mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Matt Fitzpatrick remains 7/4 favourite and he' certainly the man to beat. The former champion here in 2016 and 2020 didn't have his A-game today and still went round in 67 and he is quite clearly the most likely winner. He does have the added pressure of the season long Race to Dubai though, which could play on his mind.
Tyrrell Hatton is 11/4 and unlike Fitzpatrick, he can't win the season long race. He looks like he has more mistakes in him than Fitzpatrick though, and the US Open champion is preferred.
Jon Rahm has thrown himself in the mix and odds of 6/1 appear generous given his record of win-4th-win here. He has plenty of time to catch the leaders and felt he didn't squeeze the most out of his round today despite shooting 66.
Where is the value?
Collin Morikawa was two behind last year at halfway whilst Fitzpatrick was also two behind at the halfway stage in 2020. Rahm was three back in 2019 and two back in 2017. It's clearly a course where it is hard to lead wire to wire and the bookmakers may have jumped the gun with the odds of the leaders. The weekend is set to be windy too which brings in more variables, although both leaders are competent in the wind.
Round 3 Bet
- 3pts Jon Rahm Win Only 6/1 @ Skybet
As mentioned above, plenty of winners have come from off the pace at halfway here and Rahm will have good memories of doing so to win both his titles. In six attempts at this course, Rahm's weekend scores have been 68-66-69-68-67-65 and he is a big danger to the leaders. In addition, the last time we saw Rahm on the DP Tour, he shot 65-62 to win the Open de Espana and also closed with a 62 at the BMW PGA Championship. Fitzpatrick is justified favourite but Rahm doesn't have the added pressure of going for the season long Race to Dubai and we expected Rahm to be slightly shorter in the betting.
17th November 2022, 5:05pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Fitzpatrick |
-7 |
Hatton |
-7 |
Noren |
-6 |
Arnaus |
-5 |
Five players tied |
-4 |
Round 1 Summary
Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton lead the way after the opening round. Hatton made a bogey at the par 5 last hole to allow his compatriot a share of the lead.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"Obviously it was a good day. Hit a lot of good shots. Putter was great. Kind of happy with that start. Although my head's a bit fried at the moment. My mind is just raging at the last there. But it is what it is." Tyrrell Hatton
"They have not over-seeded it (the rough) this year, so it's just that pure Bermuda and the ball sits right at the bottom. It's very rare you get a decent lie to even have chance to hold the green or even get it up to the green. There's a bigger premium on accuracy this year and I definitely found that out on the back nine today." Rory McIlroy
"I've had three weeks off since the CJ Cup, so I'm trying to knock the rust off a little bit. There was enough good stuff in there, I made five birdies and hit some decent shots, just need to be a little tidier tomorrow. It's not far away. It's not as if there's anything that I need to drastically work on." Rory McIlroy
Round 2 Weather
Sunny. Wind 8-12 mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Matt Fitzpatrick is 5/2 favourite and it's hard to find fault with his chances over the remaining three days. Champion here in 2016 and 2020, he has a rock solid record in this event. He was bogey free for his opening 18 holes and it's hard to envisage him not contending on Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton is 9/2 in the betting. That price is no more than fair though and we're happy to pass over him for the time being.
Where is the value?
The last four winners of this event have been inside the top five after the opening round. Danny Willett (2016) was the last winner to come from outside the top five. We are focusing our attention towards the top of the leaderboard.
Round 2 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Kurt Kitayama 22/1 @ Skybet/Unibet (1/5 1-4)
Kurt opened with a four under par round of 68, ranking 2nd for SG: Tee to Green. A two time winner on the DP World Tour, he's come close to winning on the PGA Tour this year with three runner up finishes. A winner in the Middle East in Oman, we know he can compete in this type of test. He's a nice price to make a move up the leaderboard over the next three days.