Event Info
Starts - 10 December 2020
Course - The Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE
Par - 72 (36-36)
Length – 7,675 yards
Defending Champion - Jon Rahm (Not Playing)
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -18pts
Pre-Event Bets: -10.5pts
1pt Each Way Robert MacIntyre (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) - 25/1 @ William Hill
1pt Each Way Bernd Wiesberger (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) - 25/1 @ William Hill
0.75pts Each Way Antoine Rozner (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) - 60/1 @ Betfred
0.5pts Each Way Renato Paratore (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) - 90/1 @ William Hill
2ptsJordan Smith Top 20 Finish 5/2 @ Skybet
1ptGrant Forrest Top 20 Finish 11/2 @ Betfair
1ptMarc Warren Top 20 Finish 5/1 @ Betfair
In-Play Bets: -7.5pts
10 December 2020 ( -3 Points)
1pt Each Way Martin Kaymer (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 25/1 @ William Hill
1pt Gavin Green Top 10 Finish 11/2 @ William Hill
11 December 2020 ( -2 Points)
1pt Each Way Kalle Samooja Top Continental Euro (1/4 1,2,3) - 45/1 @ Betfair
12 December 2020 ( -2.5 Points)
2.5pts Viktor Hovland (Win Only) - 5/1 @ Skybet
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer - Greg Norman
Fairways - Wide, undulating, well bunkered.
Rough -Bermuda
Greens - Large, undulating, Bermuda, well bunkered, lots of run off areas. 12 on Stimpmeter
Water Hazards - 6,14,16,17, 18.
Par 5's - 2nd, 7th, 14th, 18th
Hosted Since - 2009
Premium on - Driving distance, ball striking.
Weather Forecast
Summary
Warm and sunny all four days with peaks of 30 degrees. Wind picks up in the afternoon each day which favours the morning starters slightly with softer greens.
Thurs - Sunny and gentle breeze. Wind peaks at 11mph late afternoon.
Fri - Sunny and gentle breeze. Wind peaks at 10mph late afternoon.
Sat - Sunny and gentle breeze. Wind peaks at 9mph late afternoon.
Sun - Sunny and moderate breeze. Wind peaks at 10mph late afternoon.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The other course on the Estate, the Fire course, was used last week and is also designed by Norman. This weeks course is tougher though we should still expect a low winning score.
There are various permutations on who can win the season long Race to Dubai, which may have an impact on player performance. We will try to keep on eye on how this affects things as the week progresses.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. Romain Langasque had to withdraw last week after a positive test.
Trends
Winning score
Since 2015, the winning score has ranged from -17 to -21. We expect a similar figure this week.
Course Form
Eight of the last nine winners have had a previous top 10 at the Earth Course. Jon Rahm is the only debutant to win since Robert Karlsson in 2010. Desert form is also preferred.
Incoming Form
9 of the last 11 winners had a top 10 in their previous 3 starts. Last years winner Rahm had won his previous start. We want some sort of form indicator this week.
Nationality
All 11 winners at the Earth Course have been European, however, there are examples of non Europeans having a good record so needs taken with a pinch of salt.
Stats Analysis
Summary
Strokes Gained stats are available since 2017. One thing they don't show is the importance of driving distance on the Earth Course, so we have included that also.
Driving Distance
Every winner since 2009 has ranked 16th or better for distance. 9/11 of these were inside the top 10. In 2019, 6 of the top 8 ranked 8th or better in distance. Extremely favourable to be a big hitter around here.
SG: Off The Tee
Last year's winner Rahm was 4th and runner up Fleetwood was 5th. McIlroy who finished 4th was 2nd off the tee. Strong drivers prosper here.
SG: Approach
Last year's winner Rahm was 4th and runner up Fleetwood was 2nd. Lorenzo Vera who finished 3rd was 5th for approach. Strong Iron Play required.
SG: Around The Greens
Rahm and Lorenzo Vera were top 5 for this category but Fleetwood was 22nd. Sharp short game preferred but not essential.
SG: Putting
Rahm and Fleetwood ranked 9th and 16th, preference is on ball striking for the Earth Course.
In Play
Tough Holes
Par 4's 8th and 12th were the two toughest holes last year, both playing over 4.2 on average. 245 yard Par 3 4th played 3rd toughest at 3.19 - in fact all the par 3's played over par.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5s (2nd, 7th, 14th and 18th) played the easiest four holes last year and need to be taken advantage of, along with the par 4's 9th and 11th. With that said, the 14th and 18th are over 620 yards, so only big birdie chances for the big hitters.
Fast or Slow start
The top 4 in 2019 were all in the top 4 after 18 holes! The top 3 in 2018 were all in the top 10 after 18 holes. You don't want to be too far behind at the Earth Course. Backing players with hot starts in-play could be advantageous.
Closing stretch
16th is a 486 yard Par 4 which played 2nd toughest on round 4. The 195 yard par 3 17th (which has an island green) also played over par in round 4, and the 620 yard par 5 18th played the easiest hole despite featuring water throughout.
Pre-Event Bets
1pt each way Robert MacIntyre 25/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Bob had his first look at the Earth course last year where he recorded a 14th place finish which included two sub-70 rounds at the weekend. He has warmed up nicely for this week with a couple of top 20 finishes and it's interesting that he mentioned last week's course didn't particularly play to his strengths. He was quoted yesterday as saying “the golf course (last week) didn’t suit me how I hoped it could. This week, it’s a tougher test, scoring won’t be as low, that suits me when it’s not a lights out job for four days. I’m really looking forward to seeing how we get on.” He was 3rd SG: Off the Tee last week and a similar performance off the tee will set up ample scoring opportunities.
1pt Each Way Bernd Wiesberger 25/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Bernd took too long to get going last week after an opening 72, however three rounds in the 60's followed to finish 8th and served as an indicator that he's close to his best. He ranked 7th tee to green and was 4th at the RSM Classic on the PGA tour in his previous start so he's had the perfect warm up for this. He was the winner of two Rolex Series events last year in Italy and Scotland and was actually favourite for the Race to Dubai this time last year. Quite simply, Bernd is peaking just at the right time this year and has the pedigree to fend off the top of the market.
0.75pts Each Way Antoine Rozner 60/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Last week's winner in Dubai is still not being fully respected by the bookmakers this week, probably due to the fact it is hard to win back to back and the field strength has increased. However, we saw Bezuidenhout go back to back in South Africa the past two weeks and Rozner himself had back to back wins on the Challenge Tour in 2019. The fact of the matter is Rozner is riding the crest of a wave and has commented how the winning feeling is huge for his confidence. He still has a lot to play for this week as he seeks to break into the top 100 in the world. He was the best driver in the field last week and 2nd best tee to green so 60/1 on a player in such good form seems a value play.
0.5pts Each Way Renato Paratore 90/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-7)
It's not often you tip a guy who had three double bogeys in his last competitive round but that's the situation that presents itself this week. Dubai resident Renato was in contention last week before a drive out of bounds on the 5th hole of the final round ended his chances. Take those three doubles out of the equation for a second and there's actually a lot to like about him. He was 9th SG: Approach and 14th Driving Distance last week. What is particularly notable is his win earlier this year at the British Masters was preceded by time off and a top 15 finish where he posted three strong rounds and one poor round. A set of circumstances not dissimilar to this week.
2pts Jordan Smith Top 20 Finish 5/2 @ Skybet
Jordan was extremely solid last week tee to green, ranking 4th SG: Off the Tee and 12th SG: Approach. That solidity brought him a 25th place finish and it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect him to claim a top 20 finish in a smaller field this week. He has a couple of top 25 finishes at this event and whilst he probably won't win given the way his putting has been of late, he's a solid play to return the money in this market.
1pt Grant Forrest Top 20 Finish 11/2 @ Betfair
The Scotsman achieved his season long goal last week by qualifying for this against the odds, which essentially gives him a nothing to lose attitude here. A final round 63 shot him into 6th place and he really took to the greens on Jumeirah Golf Estates, finishing 3rd in the field for SG: Putting, and this bodes well for next week. He hits the ball far and putts well, which is usually a strong combination around the Earth Course. Finishes of 16th, 27th and 10th in UAE this season, in addition to last week's 6th place, shows he likes desert golf and he can place here.
1pt Mark Warren Top 20 finish - 5/1 @ Boylesports
We narrowly missed out on our 66/1 inplay bet on Warren last week as he finished 8th and the stats show it should have been so much better. He finished 3rd for SG: tee to green and was 3rd best around the greens aswell. A cold putter cost him the places but an article we have just found on Warren explains his problem on the greens, "I don't think I was hitting bad putts, it was more about reading the greens. It's the first time I've played on grain for a while and maybe not as sharp as I could be. I'll do a bit of work over the next few days and hopefully be second nature by Thursday". Warren is a much improved player and the bookmakers have overpriced his chances of a solid finish this week.
In-play
In-Play Blog
12 December 2020 6:45pm
Player | Total |
---|---|
Reed | -11 |
Fitzpatrick | -11 |
Canter | -11 |
Hovland | -10 |
Arnaus | -10 |
MacIntyre | -10 |
Westwood | -10 |
Valimaki | -9 |
Willett | -8 |
Hatton | -7 |
Sullivan | -7 |
European Tour golf fans have one last treat in store tomorrow as the Race to Dubai is set up beautifully with SEVEN players within one stroke of the lead. Of the seven, only Reed, Fitzpatrick, Westwood and MacIntrye can potentially still be crowned R2D champion, which will bring added pressures itself.
It has been obvious from interviews all week just how much Patrick Reed wants to add this to his accolades and it showed today with a frustratingly gritty performance to keep a share of the lead. Without banging on too much about it, the American is fortunate to still be in this position after narrowly avoiding the water on 17 and 18, in addition to countless up and downs throughout. You have to hand it to him though, it was a short game masterclass and others would have fallen away, just as Tommy Fleetwood has. Readers might be shocked that Reed still tops the tee to green stats this week and if he produces his Friday form tomorrow, he should get it done.
Matt Fitzpatrick is putting beautifully this week and ranks 2nd in that field, but with all the pressure involved tomorrow it wouldn't shock us if the putts dried up. He ranks as low as 30th SG: Approach and will need to improve his iron play tomorrow. With no wins since 2018, he is not for us at a best price 18/5.
The other leader, Laurie Canter, is the surprise package of the week and if he wasn't so inexperienced at this level, it would be possible to make a case for him. He drove the ball long and straight today, 1st for driving distance and 8th for accuracy which is a remarkable performance. He also tops the stats for SG: Approach all week, as well as 3rd SG: Tee to green. Being in the final group tomorrow might just hinder him and he has never won anywhere in his rapidly improving career, so is left out for those reasons.
What Canter does have in his favour, as does Adri Arnaus and Viktor Hovland, is that they don't have the added pressure of playing the Race to Dubai title. Arnaus has the power to make a run at this tomorrow and it would be no surprise to see him challenge but we have our doubts over him in contention and his volatile game means he can throw in a double at any stage. Like Fitzpatrick, he hasn't won since 2018, however, it was the Challenge Tour Grand final so this might bring back good memories for him. He looks the best trade at 18 on the exchange currently but would recommend getting off at anything in single figures.
The neutrals will be cheering on Lee Westwood as he bids to win the R2D at the tender age of 47. He has found extra length from a new driver this week and could have been a few shots lower today on the back nine. If Westwood wakes up tomorrow with his bad back feeling good, he has the experience and is playing well enough to make a serious run at this. He is a massive danger and was 1st reserve at 12/1.
Followers of our FREE telegram group might already be on our 25/1 Pre-Event selection Robert MacIntyre and we will be cheering him on tomorrow. With 27 putts on day one, 32 on day two and 26 on day three, Bob's chances will hinge on how he putts tomorrow. He has all the talent needed to win this but he will be unlikely to have experienced this sort of pressure before and he wouldn't be one for us at current price of 15/2.
We have more Scottish interest in Marc Warren who was tipped up for a top 20 finish in the Telegram group at 5/1. He sits in 18th place currently, ranking 5th SG: Approach, so another solid day should be enough to get the job done.
Further down the leaderboard, Sami Valimaki and Danny Willett can't be discounted yet but they will need a hot start with all that traffic to pass. Tyrell Hatton and Andy Sullivan would need the round of their lives from four back, which leaves the one man we're yet to mention.
Saturday's Bets
- 2.5PTS Victor Hovland WIN ONLY 5/1 @ SKYBET
Although the price isn't massive, we could not ignore how well Viktor is playing now that he is over the worst of his jet lag and the bookmakers quite rightly rate him the main danger to Reed and Fitzpatrick. Over the first three days, he has ranked 3rd, 1st and 1st for greens in regulation and ranks 3rd for the week tee to green. Two other factors we think he has going for him is the recent winning feeling last week - we saw how it helped Bezuidenhout at the SA Open. The other is the fact he isn't playing for the Race to Dubai title so should feel less pressure than Reed or Fitzpatrick. He has improved every day and we want him onside for tomorrow.
11 December 2020 7:10pm
Player | Total |
---|---|
Reed | -10 |
Fitzpatrick | -8 |
Hatton | -7 |
Canter | -7 |
Four players tied | -6 |
Patrick Reed has one hand on the Race To Dubai title as the current points leader is ahead by two shots at the DP World Tour Championship. An eight under par round has seen him cut to 7/5 at the bookies and given he has a 5⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating, it's easy to see why. He did falter when leading at halfway at the US Open in September but in truth he was battling his game that week and never had the ball under control. He hasn't been great off the tee so far this week but he leads the field in SG: Approach and he's only made one bogey through the first 36 holes. It will take something special from those chasing if he continues to strike his irons like he has.
There's obviously a lot of quality tucked in behind, notably a quartet of proven Englishmen (Fitzpatrick, Hatton, Westwood and Fleetwood). They all have excellent records in this event and will at least ensure Reed isn't given an easy time over the weekend. Of the other players near the top, Sami Valimaki and Laurie Canter haven't won an event of this magnitude before but Valimaki in particular will likely challenge at this level in future. It may prove to be too soon for him this time around though.
It was worth noting that Branden Grace had a much better round two, perhaps the result of him getting over the jet lag caused by the travel from Mexico following the Mayakoba Golf Classic. He's got three top 10 finishes to his name here and we know he's a fast finisher, his last three wins having been sealed with final rounds of 66 or better. He may be one to keep an eye on over the weekend at slightly bigger odds (40/1). We don't put him up as a bet however.
We won't see the wind get up above 11mph tomorrow so conditions are expected to be much the same as round two.
Friday's Bets
- 1PT EW Kalle Samooja Top Continetal European 45/1 @ BETFAIR (1/4 1,2,3)
Samooja had an excellent round two, ranking 1st for Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation as he fired a 68 to move up to a score of -2 for the tournament. His fellow Finn, Sami Valimaki, is wining this market at the moment on a score of -6 but a four shot deficit with 36 holes to go is not insurmountable. Kalle is an improving player, with strong stats off the tee this week. We saw him go close at the Cyprus Open a few weeks ago where he posted a pair of 64s at the weekend. We've also seen him have great weekends at the Qatar Masters and European Masters in the past 18 months, so he's a player who does like to finish fast. He can be expected to kick on and with three places available each way, it's a fair bet.
10 December 2020 7:10pm
Player | Total |
---|---|
Perez | -5 |
MacIntyre | -4 |
Fitzpatrick | -4 |
Van Rooyen | -4 |
Four players tied. | -3 |
The Earth Course played much tougher than previous years today and it is the first time 67 has led after 18 holes. Victor Perez holds that lead and the TV coverage alone showed him hole two sizable putts along with a chip in to get there.
Henrik Stenson was asked why the players were struggling so much today and he commented that it was a number of factors - tricky pins, narrower fairways and more breeze than the practice days. Sky Sports also showed us the greenside rough which was lush in parts and it all combined to only 25 players breaking par.
As mentioned in the preview, the last couple of editions have shown us that the winners tend to come from the top of the leaderboard on day 1. We wrote in the preview;
The top 4 in 2019 were all in the top 4 after 18 holes! The top 3 in 2018 were all in the top 10 after 18 holes. You don't want to be too far behind at the Earth Course. Backing players with hot starts in-play could be advantageous.
It is highly likely that this year will be a repeat of that given the quality of the leaderboard. The top 8 all rank in the worlds top 100 and world number 9 Patrick Reed lurks in 9th place, three shots back.
With that in mind we have identified one value outright play and a top 10 finish.
Thursday's Bets
- 1PT EW Martin Kaymer 25/1 @ WILLIAM HILL (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Martin is one of those players in the group at -3 and it goes without saying that he has the quality to stick around this week if he plays his best stuff. He has three top 5's in his last seven events which is all we would need here for a decent return. Iron play was solid today - only two players hit more greens in regulation. It is well documented he hasn't won since his US Open victory in 2014 but it may well suit him being the underdog here with the bookies seemingly not rating his chances.
- 1PT Gavin Green Top 10 Finish 11/2 @ WILLIAM HILL
Given the strength of the top of the leaderboard, we were reluctant to take on the top 5 market but we think Gavin might just manage to sneak a top 10 this week. Gavin was the longest driver in the field today but more importantly, he frequently hit the fairway with 71.43%. Strong driving like that will make life a lot easier for him on a demanding course. He has strong 2020 form in this part of the world with a 3rd in Saudi and 12th in Qatar. We back him to bounce back from his missed cut last week after a weekends rest on the back of a busy schedule.