Preview
Course Info
Designer: Trent Jones Jr & Ross McMurray
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2008
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Thick in places
Greens: Large
Water Hazard: In-play on most holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 9th, 11th & 18th
Premium on: Par 3 performance
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The weather in 2020 was bad at the Wales Open but nice at the Celtic Classic. With conditions set to be fair this week, don't be put off if anyone struggled in the wind and rain in 2020 at the Wales Open.
It is a par 71 with four par 5s and five 3s. With all par 3s all capable of playing 185+ yards, and several of the par 5s generally unreachable in two, solid iron play is essential. The 15th hole is a driveable par 4 for those who want to take on the risk.
Weather Forecast
Looks set to be dry and warm all week.
Thursday
Sunny Intervals and a moderate breeze. Wind 6-11mph (gusts of up to 20mph).
Friday
Sunny Intervals and moderate breeze. Wind 7-10mph (gusts of up to 16mph).
Saturday
Sunny interval and a gentle breeze. Wind 6-8mph (gusts of up to 15mph).
Sunday
Sunny Intervals and moderate breeze. Wind 7-10mph (gusts of up to 16mph).
Trends
Winning score
Nacho Elvira won last year with a score of -16. In 2020 we saw -18 win at the Celtic Classic and -8 win the Wales Open. The course can play very differently depending on wind and weather. Expect the winning score around -16 this year.
Winning Profile
Six of the last seven winners at Celtic Manor were ranked inside the top 200 and five of them were already winners on the European Tour. Nacho Elvira was an outlier last year, ranking 687th when he won and having never won on Tour.
Correlating Courses
The 2010 course correlates well with Le Golf National, home of the French Open. Players who have performed well in Paris have a good record here in Wales.
Course form
Course form isn't essential this week. Last year's winner, Nacho Elvira, had never recorded a top 35 finish at Celtic Manor (he had made the cut in each of his three starts though). Winners in 2020, Horsfield and Langasque, were course debutants. Previous winners of the Wales Open, Joost Luiten and Gregory Bourdy both had previous top 10 finishes, so it can help.
Recent form
Seven of the last eight winners at Celtic Manor have recorded a top 25 in their last three starts before winning. Only two had a top 20 in their last start.
Nationality
Horsfield bucked a trend in 2020 when winning here as players from the UK & Ireland generally have a poor record at Celtic Manor. Over the seven Welsh Opens held at the 2010 course, we only saw one UK & Ireland winner (Graeme McDowell in 2010) and two years when players from these countries have claimed runner-up spots (2014 and 2010).
Stats Analysis
We will analyse the stats of the most recent winners. Note - strokes gained stats only exist for the two events played here in 2020 and the Cazoo Open last year.
SG: Off The Tee
7-4-22. A solid driver is preferred.
Driving Distance
79-9-66-12-38. Distance helps around here but isn't essential as Horsfield and Elvira demonstrated.
Driving Accuracy
12-41-54-12-38. Whilst it isn't necessary to be splitting every fairway, it does help to be reasonably accurate.
SG: Approach
9-18-3. Strong iron play is important.
Greens in Regulation
8-13-12-6-26. Confirms the importance of strong iron play.
SG: Around The Green
35-69-28. Not essential.
SG: Putting
10-8-13. Strong putters thrive here.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 1st, 6th, 13th and 14th played toughest last year.
Birdie Holes
The par 5s 11th and 18th were most scoreable last year. The 15th hole played 3rd easiest.
Fast or Slow Start
There's little to be gained from analysing the early round performance of past winners here. Winners have started with rounds as low as 64 (Nacho Elvira last year), but equally Graeme McDowell won in 2010 despite shooting an opening 72. In 2020, Sam Horsfield won shooting an opening 67, sitting three shots behind Thomas Pieters. In the other event played in 2020, Langasque was five shots behind after day one.
Interestingly, only one of the past eight third round leaders (covering the Celtic Classic and previous Wales Opens) have bettered par in the final round. It is not a course for players who struggle to get the job done and if we have a weak third round leader we should definitely seek to take them on.
Closing stretch
The 16th is a long par 4, 17th is tough par 3 and the 18th is a risk reward par 5.
In-play
Cazoo Open In-Play Blog
6 August 2022, 8.10pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Shinkwin |
-11 |
Guerrier |
-10 |
Syme |
-5 |
Waring |
-4 |
Veerman |
-4 |
Korhonen |
-4 |
Four Players Tied |
-2 |
Round 3 Summary
We followed the leading group at Celtic Manor this afternoon and it was clear from early on that Callum Shinkwin and Julian Guerrier were on top of their game. Guerrier raced to a three shot lead at the halfway stage but Shinkwin hardly put a foot wrong all day and a four under back nine saw him take a small lead into tomorrow.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"The game has been very good for a long time but it was just a matter of clicking into place. It felt like it was great three months ago but the results weren’t there." Callum Shinkwin
Round 4 Weather
Sunny all day with the wind set to range between 5-10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
It would be a major surprise if Callum Shinkwin doesn't continue his fine play tomorrow, he appears to be in full control of his swing and is reading the greens well too. He was very clinical when winning the 2020 Cyprus Open and odds of 8/11 are worthy. We expect him to close this out tomorrow.
The same concerns we expressed yesterday about Guerrier remain although he was much better tee to green today than Friday and it may well suit him not holding the overnight lead. We can't bring ourselves to take the 15/8 on offer though, Shinkwin is looking strong and has a better record in contention.
Where is the value?
With the outright market looking like a two horse race, we've turned our attention to the 3 ball market.
Round 4 Bet
- 1pt DOUBLE - Callum Shinkwin and David Dixon to win 3 balls 11/1 @ Boylesports
As we mentioned above, we expect Shinkwin to go on and win tomorrow. Rather than play him in the outright market, we prefer the 7/4 on offer with Boylesports for him to see off Julien Guerrier and Connor Syme. Dixon has previous at Celtic Manor, having finished 3rd and 28th in his last two starts here. That form has carried over into this week with two rounds out of three under par. He's up against Ewen Ferguson and Ashley Chesters. Ferguson is going backwards with every round and whilst Chesters is a solid opponent, the 7/2 on offer for Dixon is too big to ignore.
5 August 2022, 10.10pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Guerrier |
-7 |
Shinkwin |
-5 |
Veerman |
-5 |
Kofstad |
-4 |
Armitage |
-4 |
Senior |
-4 |
Detry |
-4 |
Round 2 Summary
Celtic Manor showed its teeth again with only one player bettering 67 - Thomas Detry. Julian Guerrier posted an early three shot lead which was cut to two shots by Johannes Veerman and Callum Shinkwin in the afternoon.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"My driving and my iron game were not very good, I was really far from the pins but I only made one three-putt - my putting was really good and that was the key today." Julian Guerrier
Round 3 Weather
Sunny all day with the wind set to range between 5-10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
There is every reason to doubt Julian Guerrier who has a poor record when leading. He threw away the Cazoo Classic at Hillside a couple of weeks ago when dominating and it wasn't the first time. In 2020 he threw away a massive halfway lead at the Portugal Masters and his comments after the round about not watching leaderboards doesn't fill us with any confidence. The short game bailed him out today and odds of 9/2 hold no appeal.
Joint favourite is course specialist Callum Shinkwin who also arrived in good form. He is much preferred at the same price and if he gets anywhere close to last year's 63-67 at the weekend here, he will romp away. A big danger but one of the other favourites is preferred at the odds who will discuss below.
Where is the value?
With our concerns over the leader getting the job done, the outright market still catches our eye.
Round 3 Bets
- 2pts WIN ONLY Thomas Detry 13/2 @ Skybet
We mentioned Detry on our pre-event podcast but couldn't pull the trigger at 14/1. He has a brilliant record in the UK, with three runners-up places including here in 2020 and all three came in July or August. He arrives on the back of respectable efforts at the Scottish and British Opens and ranks 1st for approach and tee to green already this week.
- 0.5pts Each Way Hadyn Porteous 200/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-4)
We're happy to take a small punt on Porteous continuing his comeback this weekend. The South African ranks 8th tee to green and has certainly found something after 15 missed cuts in a row. The odds are disrespectful for a two time European Tour winner.
4 August 2022, 10.50pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Guerrier |
-4 |
Syme |
-4 |
Whitnell |
-4 |
Korhonen |
-3 |
Ferguson |
-3 |
Pepperell |
-3 |
Cantero Gutierrez |
-3 |
Armitage |
-3 |
Kieffer |
-3 |
Round 1 Summary
A tricky breeze and fast greens kept scoring under control and no player was able to better four under par. Eight of the top nine on the leaderboard played in the afternoon.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"Overall I’m pleased, I kept my ball out of the trouble well and it’s a good start. You’ve got to drive it well and the greens are pretty undulating in parts as well so you need to be cautious about where you’re leaving it." Connor Syme
"It’s tough out there, the wind is swirling about which is making it extremely tough but I had a game plan and managed to execute it today." Dale Whitnell
Round 2 Weather
Similar conditions to round one, sunny with the wind expected to blow around 12mph, although gusts will be higher.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Connor Syme is 10/1 favourite but it's not a price that we are overly interested in. We were on the Scot last week at 80/1 and whilst there was a lot to like about his game, he ran up several big numbers and there remains a doubt that a double or treble bogey will appear somewhere this week.
Callum Shinkwin, Eddie Pepperell and Marcus Armitage are next in the betting at 12/1 and all three would probably be preferred to Syme. As we noted in the preview, five of the last seven winners at Celtic Manor have won on Tour before and all three have shown they can cross the finishing line.
Where is the value?
There are some hugely tempting prices in the outright market, especially those players priced up at 1 under par. We've seen some huge prices claim each way places here in recent years and we could well see a similar outcome this time around. Lee Slattery made most appeal at 200/1 given his recent 11th place finish at the Cazoo Classic. However, there is a price in the 2nd round leader market that we can't ignore.
Round 2 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Ivan Cantero Gutierrez TO BE 2ND ROUND LEADER 40/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1/4)
As we mentioned above, it is the 2nd round leader market that appeals the most and odds of 40/1 on Ivan Cantero Gutierrez can't be turned down. He's as low as 22/1 with Betfair for the same bet and given he's one shot off the lead, the 40/1 is far too dismissive of his chances. The Spaniard ranked 6th SG: Tee to Green on the opening day and should he replicate that in round two, he's in with a great chance to make the top four at the halfway stage.