Preview
Course Info
Designer: Fred Hawtree re-design in the 1960s.
Type of Course: Links
Last Used: 2019 British Masters
Fairways: Average width
Rough: Tall fescue grass
Greens: Large
Water Hazard: On 5 holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 5th, 11th & 17th
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The Cazoo Classic is this year played at Hillside GC, having been played at London GC last year.
Hillside GC was last used on the DP World Tour in 2019, when it hosted the British Masters
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Sunny Intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 9-11mph
Friday
Possible rain showers in the afternoon and a gentle breeze. Wind 6-9mph
Saturday
Light cloud and a gentle breeze. Wind 7-11mph
Sunday
Sunny Intervals and a moderate breeze. Wind 10-12mph
Trends
Winning score
Marcus Kinhult won the British Masters at Hillside with a score of -16 in 2019.
Winning Profile
Kinhult was 203rd in the world rankings before his win. It was his first win on Tour.
Correlating Courses
Several of the top five in 2019 had form at the Scottish open and Scottish Championship. Links form is a definite advantage.
Course form
Those who played the British Masters in 2019 are definitely preferred.
Recent form
Kinhult had missed his last four cuts prior to his win. Form is not essential.
Stats Analysis
We will use the stats of the top five at the 2019 British Masters.
SG: Off The Tee
The top five in 2019 ranked 76th, 34th, 23rd, 106th and 58th. Strong driving isn't essential.
Driving Distance
The top five in 2019 ranked 93rd, 60th, 107th, 146th and 91st. Length off the tee isn't essential.
Driving Accuracy
The top five in 2019 ranked 19th, 14th, 72nd, 29th and 81st. Accuracy is definitely preferred over length this week.
SG: Approach
The top five in 2019 ranked 25th, 4th, 5th, 27th and 21st. Iron play is key this week.
Greens in Regulation
The top five in 2019 ranked 16th, 15th, 5th, 28th and 17th. Hitting greens is essential.
SG: Around The Green
The top five in 2019 ranked 58th, 18th, 40th, 96th and 100th.
SG: Putting
The top five in 2019 ranked 2nd, 6th, 83rd, 24th and 14th. A good week on the greens helps but isn't essential.
In-Play
Tough Holes
In 2019, 16 and 18 played as the two toughest holes on the course.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5's played easiest in 2019. Outside of them, the short par 4 8th played easiest.
Fast or Slow Star
Kinhult was 2nd after the opening round in 2019. Three of the eventual top five were inside the top three after the opening round.
In-play
Cazoo Classic In-Play Blog
23 July 2022, 10.10pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Guerrier |
-12 |
Dantorp |
-11 |
Waring |
-11 |
Ramsay |
-11 |
Forrest |
-10 |
Bjork |
-10 |
Valimaki |
-10 |
Round 3 Summary
Overcast conditions and a moderate breeze made conditions tricky for the later starters but Julien Guerrier manged to card a 2nd consecutive round of 69 to edge ahead.
Round 4 Weather
The wind is forecast to blow 13-17mph throughout the day with gusts of up to 28mph. This should be the most challenging day for players this week.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Julien Guerrier is the 7/2 favourite but it's hard to have any confidence in the Frenchman. He's had several opportunities to win his first DP World Tour title and failed to impress in any of them. A lacklustre display at the Open de Espana in October 2021 was his latest
We still have nightmares about the 2020 Portugal Masters where we blew a five stroke lead at halfway after we tipped him at 200/1. He didn't even make the each way places! Whilst we expect him to fare better in this event, he's not for us at the odds, especially with the weather forecast.
Richie Ramsay is 4/1 2nd favourite and he makes slightly more appeal given his ability to play in the wind. Blustery conditions suit him down to the ground and he's got a good chance of recording his 4th DP World Tour title. That said, he too has blown a great chance of winning recently, having double bogeyed the last hole of the British Masters in May.
Paul Waring and Jens Dantorp are both 6/1 and if you've read the blog already this week, you'll know we are on Waring pre-event at 80/1. He struggled front running today but coming from off the pace should suit him better and he's expected to challenge. Dantorp had his worst round of the week tee to green in round three and others are preferred.
Where is the value?
With the wind set to cause problems, we could well see someone post a score in the clubhouse and watch as the leaders falter on the back nine. We have chances already with Waring and in-play selections, Marcus Armitage and Marcus Kinhult, However, we want to add one final play.
Round 4 Bets
- 1.5pts Win Only Sami Valimaki 9/1 @ General
Robert MacIntyre and Thorbjorn Olesen were tempting options at 28/1 and 33/1 but both players have dropped a significant number of shots (six bogeys and a double bogey each) over their opening three rounds and there's a feeling they may have a bogey too many in the final round. In contrast, Valimaki has only dropped two shots all week and has ranked inside the top 10 the past two rounds for SG: Tee to Green. Those of you who watched this week's Fore The Win will have seen us talking up his chances and tomorrow's windy conditions should suit him perfectly. He can notch his 2nd Tour win at Hillside.
23 July 2022, 10.20am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Waring |
-11 |
Dantorp |
-9 |
Guerrier |
-9 |
Forrest |
-9 |
Huizing |
-8 |
Three Players Tied |
-7 |
Round 2 Summary
Our 80/1 pre-event selection Paul Waring maintained his lead despite a wobbly start. Jens Dantorp reached double figures but a bogey on his last hole meant the lead stays as two shots.
Round 3 Weather
We look set for a windier day for round three with the wind reaching 14mph late afternoon with gusts of up to 24mph. We should also see some light rain showers across the day which should soften the course somewhat.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Paul Waring has shortened to 14/5 and it looks very short given the forecast for the weekend. Sunday in particular looks very windy and we may see a lot of movement on the leaderboard all weekend.
The trio of nearest chasers - Dantorp, Forrest and Guerrier are all around the 8/1 mark. Forrest would be slightly preferred but none are enticing us in.
Where is the value?
There is a very strong set of players in the -6 to -7 range who are expected to make strong claims and that is where the value is in our eyes.
Round 3 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Marcus Armitage 28/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3)
This is a stand out price at Ladbrokes this morning and looks to big to refuse. Armitage won the Porsche European Open last year from off the pace. He has been out of form recently but is a strong wind player - shown by his 5th place in Qatar earlier this year, where he shot the best round of the day in extremely windy conditions on the Sunday.
- 0.5pts Each Way Marcus Kinhult 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)
We're going for another Marcus here, this time a player we know who can score well at the course having won the British Masters at this venue in 2019. Marcus is seven shots back but there is a long way to go yet and a round two 68 is encouraging where he ranked 4th for greens in regulation. He's already shot a 65 at this course and something similar today would likely give him a chance on Sunday.
21 July 2022, 10.20pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Waring |
-9 |
G Porteous |
-7 |
Guerrier |
-6 |
Mansell |
-6 |
Dantorp |
-6 |
Forrest |
-6 |
Round 1 Summary
The top two took advantage of a decreasing breeze throughout the afternoon to post the best scores of the day. Paul Waring tied the course record and he leads by two shots.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"It's funny, I'd felt like I've been playing nicely over the last few weeks and months, just not having any results so to actually put it all together for a round of golf, I'm absolutely made up.
"It's nice having all the support from everyone." Paul Waring
"I love playing links golf, so to get out there, it is all very familiar to me......I just played solid, hit the ball lovely. The putter let me down a little bit but I will take seven under in the first round." Garrick Porteous
Round 2 Weather
The wind will be fairly consistent throughout the day, peaking at 10mph early afternoon. The afternoon starters will have to contend with some light rain so morning starters may get the best of conditions.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Paul Waring is the 9/2 favourite after the opening round. We advised Waring to subscribers at 80/1 pre-event and have to admit, we like his chances this week. All aspects of his game were in good order in round one and he's tipped to hang around the top of the leaderboard through to the weekend.
That said, odds of 9/2 are no more than fair and there doesn't appear to be a significant amount of value backing him at the current price. He does have a favourable tee time for round two but there are some competent chasers tucked in behind and there's a lot of golf yet to be played.
Richard Mansell is the only other player priced up at single figure odds (8/1). The young Englishman was 3rd at the Porsche European Open last month but he's yet to win on Tour and he hasn't always convinced when near the top. We're happy to consider others.
Where is the value?
Given the late finish (final group teed off just before 4pm UK time), there aren't many markets priced up. We were close to tipping Garrick Porteous at 22/1 but have decided to review the outright market after the 2nd round. We have several pre-event bets inside the top 30 and we'll see how they progress in round two.
Round 2 Bets
- 1.5pts Robin Roussel to beat Graeme Storm and Adrian Otaegui 23/10 @ BetVictor
Robin won this 3 ball on day one and we were surprised to see such a big price for him to win it again in round two. The Frenchman played nicely at the Barbasol Championship two weeks ago and shouldn't be 23/10 in what is essentially a two ball. Graeme Storm shot 78 in round one and shot in excess of 80 in both his last two rounds on Tour. Otaegui has now played three rounds at Hillside and failed to break 70, he should be favourite but has been shown too much respect and Roussel is the value.
- 1.5pts Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Robert MacIntyre and Edoardo Molinari 9/5 @ BetVictor
Thorbjorn won this three ball on day one and like Roussel, hasn't been adjusted in price. MacIntyre is undergoing swing changes having changed coach and he'll need to motivate himself after playing his final ten holes of round one in 3 over par. Molinari lost his clubs at Frankfurt airport earlier int he week and whilst it's unknown if he has them back, it's likely unsettled his preparations this week and that was reflected in an opening round of 74. Olesen eagled the 17th to finish under par in round one and has the momentum in this group.
- 1pt Thorbjorn Olesen and Robin Roussel to win their 3 balls 8/1 @ BetVictor