Starts: 12th August 2021
Course: London Golf Club (Heritage Course), England
Length: 7,327 yards
2020 Champion: N/A
Overall Profit/Loss: -1.8pts
Pre-Event Bets: +4.7pts
1pt EW Kalle Samooja 60/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
1pt EW Jamie Donaldson 66/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.75pts EW Richard McEvoy 150/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Nicolai Hojgaard 150/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts EW David Drysdale 200/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Alvaro Quiros 250/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Gaganjeet Bhullar 300/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
In-Play Bets: -6.5pts
11 August 2021(-1.5pts)
0.75pts EW Robert Rock 150/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-5)
12 August 2021(-5pts)
1.5pts EW Maverick Antcliff 14/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
1pt EW Daniel Van Tonder 33/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Designer: Jack Nicklaus
Type of Course: Parkland, elevated by 500ft.
Used Since: Only used in 2008 and 2009 at European Open.
Fairways: Wide but sourrounded by tall fescue grass.
Rough: Tall fescue grass if you miss wide enough.
Greens: Large, Bentgrass.
Water Hazard: Four lakes throughout the course.
Par 5's: 5th, 8th, 12th and 15th.
Premium on: Scrambling.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
London Golf Club has two courses. The event will be hosted at the Heritage.
It is the first time the course has hosted on the European Tour since the European Open in 2008 and 2009.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Dry all week with temperatures peaking around 23 degrees. Sunny every day apart from Saturday.
Sunny Intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 6-11mph
Sunny Intervals and a moderate breeze. Wind 7-12mph
Light cloud and a gentle breeze. Wind 6-10mph
Sunny Intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 5-8mph
Christian Cevear won here in 2009 with -7 and Ross Fisher in 2008 with -20! With weather set to be nice all week we should expect it closer to Fisher's total of -20.
Cevear was winning his second European Tour title but was a massive outsider. Fisher was ranked 104th having won his first European Tour event a year prior. It might pay to look for recent winners on tour this week.
Although a parkland course, the rough gives a linksy feel and is usually played in the wind due to elevation. 2008 champion Fisher has a great record at the Alfred Dunhill Links in St Andrews so that event could prove a good guide.
Cevear had missed the cut the year before his win, as had 2nd place Alvaro Quiros. Webster and Orr who also finished 2nd had top 40's the year before. With no recent course form, it's not a major guide this week.
Fisher had form figures of 64-12-MC before his win so nothing sparkling. Cevear was on a run of missed cuts. Form is not essential.
Favourites or Outsiders
Bernd Wiesberger looks a strong favourite but there is not a great strength in depth behind him and outsiders should be chanced.
We don't have any Strokes Gained stats this week so will focus on the stats of the winners in 2008 and 2009.
67-1. Difficult to tell from the disparity but not essential to win here clearly.
44-23. Not a key factor this week with wide fairways.
Greens in Regulation
13-3. As usually the case, strong iron play is rewarded.
2-5. The key stat from the lmited course info we have.
26-3. Was key to victory for Fisher.
In 2009, 16-18 played as the three toughest on the course. 16th and 18th are long par 4's and the 17th is a long par 3.
The four par 5's played easiest in 2009. Outside of them, the short par 4 13th played easiest.
Fast or Slow Start
Fisher led wire to wire in 2008 and the top three on day one finished in the top four. In 2009 it was a different story though, as only Cevear was in the top 10 after round one and went on to finish top 10 overall. There is no concrete evidence yet but both winners have started well.
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Cazoo Classic In-Play Blog
14th August 2021, 11.55pm
A stunning round of 62 from the Danish youngster Rasmus Hojgaard means that he now enters the final round of the Cazoo Classic with a three shot lead.
Hojgaard is a two time winner on the European Tour and now finds himself a general price of 8/11 to take a third title. We are in agreement with the bookmakers and given the Dane has a 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating, we see him winning.
Those chasing Hojgaard will take heart from the fact he hasn't been in contention for a while and the last time he held a lead going into the final round (2020 Oman Open), he struggled. However, he's been generally impressive under pressure and given those around him haven't sparkled under pressure, he's certainly favoured in our eyes.
Second favourite in the betting is Callum Hill (7/1). The Scotsman will be hoping for a better outcome than last week and we certainly see him using that experience to positive effect. He's not dropped a shot in his last 36 holes and is certainly playing well enough to challenge. We may well have backed him if he were up against someone with less pedigree than Hojgaard.
Jordan Smith was favourite in the betting after playing his opening nine holes in 31 shots. A back nine of 39 meant that he slipped behind and is now 3rd favourite in the betting at 15/2. Coming from behind will suit Smith but it's hard not to think he'll be kicking himself and his opportunity may have passed. The short birdie putt he missed on the 12th in round 3 was certainly enough to put us off backing him.
We'll see a dry day tomorrow with temperatures touching 21 degrees celcius. The wind will pick up to 14mph in the afternoon.
Round 4 Bet
- No bet
We think Hojgaard will convert but 8/11 makes no appeal so we are happy to leave this event alone now.
14th August 2021, 9.15am
Rhys Enoch and Dale Whitnell both fired bogey free rounds to climb to the top of the leaderboard at the Cazoo Classic.
Neither player has won on the European Tour before and neither has much experience of leading. Enoch has at least been in the winner's circle this year, albeit at a lower level. He won on the Sunshine Tour at the start of the year but this is a significant step up. Odds of 12/1 reflect his chances over the weekend.
Whitnell stated in his post round interview that he has never led a tournament before. He would go on to state,
"When I was fourth at Close House I was maybe one behind but I’ve just got to take all the experience I’ve had and hopefully it will stand me in good stead going into the weekend."
He's third favourite in the betting at 11/2 and it seems a little short for us. He's won on the Challenge Tour before, claiming the 2019 KPMG Trophy. However, that win came via weekend rounds of 64-63 and was a win from off the pace. Trying to win on the European Tour for the first time from the front is a difficult task, just as we've seen in recent weeks.
The favourite with the bookies is one of those players who has struggled when leading in recent weeks. Callum Hill threw away a golden opportunity last week but is chalked up at 9/2 to put that right. He's a prolific winner on lower tours (3 Challenge Tour wins and wins on other other Tours) so it's likely he'll learn from his near misses and win soon.
Jordan Smith finds himself as 5/1 second favourite. He's a winner on the European Tour and winner on the Challenge Tour but like Hill, his Sunday performances of late have been poor. That has to be a concern and the 5/1 isn't for us at this stage.
We'll see a dry day tomorrow with temperatures touching 21 degrees celcius. The wind will be a fairly consistent 10mph throughout the day.
Round 3 Bets
- 1.5pts Each Way Maverick Antcliff 14/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Maverick is a player we like and can be expected to win on the European Tour soon. He leads the field this week in SG: Off The Tee and SG: Approach and just needs the putter to warm up over the weekend to win this. A prolific winner in China in 2019 (3 wins on the China Tour), he's taken to life on the European Tour nicely. He's already posted a 2nd place this year on the European Tour (Canary Islands Championship) and he can go one better this week.
- 1pt Each Way Daniel Van Tonder 33/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
We think it might be a nervy final group today and that could allow the chasers back into this. Daniel Van Tonder won earlier this year at the Kenya Savannah Classic and that win gives him more experience than the majority of other players on this leaderboard. A double bogey seven at the par 5 15th hole yesterday means he has 4 shots to make up on the leaders but he's more than capable of making the requisite birdies.
12th August 2021, 9.15pm
Richard Bland leads the way after the opening day at the London Golf Club. The Englishman is having the year of his life, having won the Betfred British Masters in May and recorded several other top 5 finishes since. It's understandable he's the favourite at 13/2.
For all the nice golf he's been playing, Bland is yet to convince us he's going to be a multiple winner. It will obviously be a great story were he to win again but he's not a betting proposition for us at this time.
Jordan Smith and Bernd Wiesberger are next in the betting at 9/1 and they are a far more attractive price in our opinion. Smith has been in hot form of late but Sunday performances have been poor. In contrast, Wiesberger has been largely subdued since his win at the Made In Himmerland in May. The Austrian proved quite the enigma in round one, holing over 100ft of putts in his first nine holes before missing several shorts putts coming in.
We wouldn't put anyone off backing either player given their pedigree. However, the prices aren't tempting enough this early in the week.
We'll see a dry day tomorrow with temperatures touching 20 degrees celcius. The wind will pick up as the day goes on and those players out early should find it slightly easier.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.75pts Each Way Robert Rock 150/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-5)
Rocky shot an opening round of 69 playing in the afternoon wave in round one. He has an early tee time for round two, off at 8.50am local time and he can be backed to make progress up the leaderboard. It's been a poor year so far but he should have won the Scottish Open last year and he's a player who's still a threat, especially when playing in the UK. His stats were solid yesterday (3rd SG: Off The Tee and 44th SG: Approach) and we're happy to back him at the odds.