Preview
Course Info
Designer: Kurt Rossknecht
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2002. Not played here 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, 2012.
Fairways: Poa/Rye
Rough: Poa/Rye
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: In-play on 17 holes
Par 5's: 6th, 9th, 11th and 18th
Premium on: Birdies
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Several of the players jet across from the US Open last week. Viktor Hovland did so last year when he won.
The event has been played here every second year in recent times - 2021, 2019, 2017, 2015 and 2013. The tournament was cancelled in 2020 due to Covid.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Temperatures in the mid 20's all week.
Thursday
Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wind Speed 5 - 10mph.
Friday
Scattered morning showers then becoming partly sunny. Wind Speed 4 - 8mph.
Saturday
Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wind Speed 5 - 10mph.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Rain likely during the overnight. Wind Speed 10 - 15mph.
Trends
Winning score
Since 2010 has been between -15 and -19. We should expect a figure near the 20's to be winning.
Winning Profile
Hovland was ranked 14th last year. Pavan was ranked 129th in the world before his win in 2019 but not in any special form. Romero in 2017 could barely make a cut and was ranked 837th. Larrazabal was 111th in average form in 2015 and 180th in strong form for his win in 2011. Els won in 2013 the week after finishing 4th at the US Open. There is no set profile for the winner here, but apart from Romero all recent winners have ranked inside the top 200 in the world.
Correlating Courses
The Belfry is similar in style but slightly tougher whereas The Green Eagle used for the European Open a few weeks ago could also be a nice guide.
Course form
Hovland was making hsi debut, Pavan only had a missed cut, Romero had two top 30's, Larrazabal was a previous winner and Els had a great record here before his win. Overall, course form is not essential to succeed but obviously helps.
Recent form
The last four winners have all arrived in not great form. Before that, Els and Larrazabal were in form Recent form is preferred but not essential.
Nationality
No UK player has won here since David Horsey in 2010.
Stats Analysis
We will assess the stats of the two playoff contenders in 2019, and Richard Bland who was 2nd in 2017. There are no available stats for 2017 winner Andres Romero.
Driving Distance
17-49-84-80. You don't have to bomb it.
Driving Accuracy
39-87-8-45. Driving Accuracy isn't perceived as essential either.
SG: Off the tee
14-73-9-N/A. No stats are available for Bland in 2017. Pavan won here with relatively poor figures however strong driving is an advantage generally.
SG: Approach
35-19-28-N/A. Strong iron play is important.
SG: Around the greens
91-27-43-N/A. Not a key stat this week.
SG: Putting
1-23-42-N/A. As always it helps to putt well, Hovland's score was built with the putter.
In Play
Tough Holes
In 2021, the 472 yard par 4 10th played toughest and the 482 yard Par 4 3rd played the 2nd toughest, averaging 4.29.
Birdie Holes
Out with the four par 5's, in 2021 the driveable par 4 5th played the easiest, averaging 3.74.
Fast or Slow Start
Hovland was four back after round one last year whilst Kaymer who was 2nd, was SIX back. Pavan led after round one in 2019 but Fitzpatrick, who reached the play-off, was SEVEN back. Four of the top 5 were inside the top 10 after day one in 2017.
Closing stretch
The 16th is a short par 4, followed by the tough 205 yard par 3 17th. The 18th is an easy Par 5 which averaged 4.75 in 2021.
In-play
26 June 2022, 8:35am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Li |
-20 |
Pieters |
-17 |
Smith |
-16 |
Van Driel |
-15 |
Fox |
-15 |
Langasque |
-14 |
Three players tied |
-13 |
Round 3 Summary
Haotong Li shot a brilliant front nine of 31 but several errors on the back nine meant his lead was capped at three shots.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"Tomorrow will be a tough day. I just need to hang on in there, play my game. Expect everything. I just need to get comfortable as much as possible." Haotong Li
Round 4 Weather
Conditions should be favourable for scoring, with sunshine and moderate winds of 8-12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Haotong Li is favourite at 21/20. Having led from round one, he ranks 1st SG: Tee to Green this week. However, we started to see signs of the pressure affecting him on the back nine yesterday and that's a concern. He escaped with pars, or even birdies (his recovery shot at the 15th was fantastic), from several errant tee shots and it's questionable whether he will be as fortunate today.
We're not keen to back Li at the price given his unpredictability. He's clearly talented enough to extend his three shot lead and win this comfortably but odds of 21/20 make little appeal. We shouldn't forget he closed poorly last time out at the Porsche European Open and there's a high quality chasing pack.
Thomas Pieters is now 14/5 and we're slightly regretting not getting him onside yesterday. The Belgian was bogey free yesterday and has only dropped three shots all week. Ranking 5th in SG: Tee to Green, he's expected to go close today.
Our disappointment at not backing Pieters is tempered somewhat by the move made by yesterday's 300/1 tip, Darius Van Driel. His round of 64 was the joint best of the day and he now finds himself in with an outside chance of a win. He ranks 3rd SG: Tee to Green this week, it's not unthinkable he could win from off the pace if those above suffer from nerves.
Jordan Smith is the only other player at single figure odds (6/1) and has to be respected given his play this season. A 2nd DP World Tour is long overdue for the Englishman.
Where is the value?
The last three winners at this course were 1st, 9th and 4th after 54 holes. With low scores possible, it's entirely possible we see a winner come from behind.
Round 4 Bet
Thomas Pieters is the pick of those at the top of the leaderboard but you could make reasonable arguments for several of the chasers and there isn't too much value to be had with the 14/5. Of the top three, Pieters has scored the worst over the opening four holes, so if you do want to back him it may be worth looking at him in-play.
We'll be cheering on Darius Van Driel today. His last Challenge Tour win came from five shots back after he closed with a round of 64. A similar score today will see him in the mix.
24 June 2022, 8:35pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Li |
-15 |
Fox |
-14 |
Huizing |
-12 |
Pieters |
-11 |
Smith |
-11 |
Kieffer |
-10 |
Four players tied |
-9 |
Round 2 Summary
Thunderstorms interrupted play in the afternoon but that didn't stop Ryan Fox and Thomas Pieters firing rounds of 64. Fox is now one shot behind Haotong Li.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"I was feeling the pressure on the last few holes and I think the weekend will be the same. Hopefully I can just play my golf and keep calm." Haotong Li
"I don’t think I’ve ever gone bogey-free for 36 holes. I’m happy and in with a chance over the weekend again. I had a couple of really good shots just before the delay and I was really disappointed we stopped. Obviously we had no choice, it was pretty dark out there. It was a little scratchy the first couple of holes coming back, but I made a nice birdie on 11 and then a 35-footer on 14, then hit some good shots coming home after that." Ryan Fox
Round 3 Weather
Conditions should be ideal, with sunshine and gentle winds of 5-10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Haotong Li may lead but it is Ryan Fox who is the 11/5 favourite. The Kiwi has one win to his name already this season and arguably should have had at least one more. He's likely to challenge for the title come Sunday afternoon but there is a nagging doubt regarding his ability to see out tournaments. We're happy to pass up the 2/1.
In yesterday's blog we discussed Li's ability to throw in one bad round and that has to be factored into any decision to back him. He's played brilliantly so far but he's been weak when near the lead this year and we're in no rush to back him at 5/2.
Thomas Pieters (15/2) and Jordan Smith (8/1) are the only other players priced up at single figures and both have to be respected. Pieters was mentioned as one to watch in our Fore The Win show earlier this week and is looking to win for the 2nd time this season. He ranks 6th SG: Tee to Green so far and is a definite threat.
Smith has been having an incredibly consistent season, finishing outside the top 25 only twice in eleven starts. His recent contention experience should help him over the weekend and he too is expected to hang around.
Where is the value?
The last three winners at this course have been inside the top 12 after round two. With the leaders set to enjoy scoreable conditions, it would take something special for those players outside the top 12 to contend this weekend.
Round 3 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Darius Van Driel 300/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Darius is a proven fast finisher, having closed with rounds of 66 and 68 last time out at the Scandinavian Mixed to take 3rd place. That performance wasn't a one off, his win on the Challenge Tour in 2019 coming with weekend rounds of 63 and 64. There are several other examples of him getting hot once he's made the cut and he's a big price to notch a top 4 finish. There is also the chance of a win from well off the pace if the leaders have a poor weekend.
23 June 2022, 7:05pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Li |
-10 |
Huizing |
-9 |
Von Dellingshausen |
-8 |
Fox |
-6 |
Nienaber |
-6 |
Van Tonder |
-6 |
R Hojgaard |
-6 |
Kaymer |
-6 |
Lorenzo Vera |
-6 |
Round 1 Summary
A low scoring afternoon saw Haotong Li top the leaderboard in Germany. The top three all played in the afternoon, making the most of scoreable conditions.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"I didn't expect that. I spent a couple of weeks off in Dubai, which is hot. I didn't practice much." Haotong Li
"I probably left a couple out there on the greens but overall really happy with how I played." Ryan Fox
Round 2 Weather
There is a possible thunderstorm early morning and then again late in the afternoon. The wind is expected to blow 8-12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Haotong Li is the 4/1 favourite but we've seen him in this position before this year and we are in no rush to get involved at that price. He was joint leader after round 1 at the Porsche European Open before finishing 18th. Similarly, he was 2nd after round 2 at the Dutch Open but fell away to 37th. There can be no doubt he's capable of leading from start to finish but he's also capable of a terrible round too and he's easy to overlook at this stage.
Ryan Fox (10/1) and Rasmus Hojgaard (11/) are next in the betting and both would be preferred to Li. Fox has been enjoying a fantastic year on the DP World Tour, with a win already on his resume and several runner up finishes. He's expected to be contending on Sunday.
Where is the value?
Given the unpredicatbility of Haotong Li, we're looking at the outright market for in-play bets. The last three winners at this course have been inside the top 20 after round 1 so it may be wise to focus on players who shot four under par or better.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.75pts Each Way Antoine Rozner 55/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-5)
Max Kieffer was under consideration given his good recent form and the quality of his iron play on the opening day. However, we've gone for Antoine Rozner to make a move over the remaining 54 holes. Rozner ranked inside the top 30 for SG: Approach and SG: Off The Tee in Round 1 and will hope to carry that level of play into the remaining rounds. He finished 55th here last year but rounds of 66 and 67 were encouraging, even if he did bookend them with rounds of 75 and 76. Both of Antoine's DP World Tour wins came after a week off, let's hope he capitalises on having last week off.