Event Info
Starts: 12th May 2021
Course: The Belfry (Brabazon)
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,310 yards
2020 Champion: Renato Paratore
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -9.84pts
Pre-Event Bets: -9.5pts
1pt EW Eddie Pepperell 40/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-10)
0.75pts EW Maverick Antcliff 80/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-10)
0.75pts EW Fabrizio Zanotti 80/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-10)
0.5pts EW Adrian Otaegui 90/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Julian Suri 150/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-10)
0.25pts EW Oliver Fisher 400/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-10)
1pt Robin Sciot-Siegrist Top 20 Finish 7/1 @ Paddy Power
1pt Bernd Ritthammer Top 20 Finish 17/2 @ Paddy Power
In-Play Bets: -0.34pts
12 May 2021(-1pts)
0.5pts EW Chris Wood - 150/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
13 May 2021 (-2pts)
2pts Justin Harding Win Only - 11/1 @ General
14 May 2021 (+2.66pts)
0.5pts EW Mikho Korhonen - 50/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Dave Thomas
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2020 (Different event)
Fairways: Average
Par 5's: 3rd, 15th & 17th
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This course was not used for the tournament last year but was the venue for the 2020 ISPS Handa UK Championship
Expect a return to cooler weather.
We saw only six par 4s the past two weeks in Tenerife but the Brabazon course has twelve par 4s.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Wednesday
Sunny intervals with a max wind of 10mph.
Thursday
Light rain showers throughout the day. Max winds 7mph.
Saturday
Light rain showers after lunch and a max wind of 7mph.
Sunday
Cloudy but should remain dry with a max wind of 8mph.
Trends
Winning score
When the British Masters was held at The Belfry between 2006-2008 the winning scores were -11, -15 and -12. Rasmus Hojgaard won the ISPS Handa UK Championship last year with a score of -14.
Winning Profile
The world rankings of the three British Masters winners were 194-48-157. Hojgaard was 94th when he lifted the trophy at the ISPS Handa UK Championship.
Correlating Courses
There's a clear course correlation with Loch Lomond Golf Club, host of the Scottish Open until 2010. Johan Edfors and Lee Westwood won here in 2006 and 2007 and both are course winners at Loch Lomond. Even 2008 winner, Gonzalo Fernandez Castano, has a 2nd place at Loch Lomond.
For a more recent correlation, the Portugal Masters offers a number of similarities. Westwood is a winner at the Dom Pedro Victoria golf course, Fernandez-Castano has a runner up finish there and Edfors has a solid enough record there too. It's also notable last year's runner up, Justin Walters, has an excellent record at the Portugal Masters.
Course form
Most players did not play the British Masters between 2006-2008 but those players who played here last year will have an advantage.
Recent form
Rasmus Hojgaard had finished 3rd the week before he triumphed. Of the players who won between 2006-2008, Westwood finished 6th the week before, Fernandez Castano 25th and Edfors 45th. Recent form does appear to be important.
Stats Analysis
SG: Approach
Rasmus Hojgaard ranked 7th for SG: Approach last year. Indeed, three of the first four last year ranked inside the top seven for SG: Approach. The winners of the last three British Masters (2006-2008) were all accurate iron players too. We should favour players with good Strokes Gained: Approach stats.
SG: Off The Tee
Last year, none of the top four ranked inside the top 10 for SG: Off The Tee. They ranked 12-24-45-38 in this category.
SG: Around The Green
It was a similar story around the greens as no player in the top four ranked inside the top 40.
SG: Putting
The top four last year ranked 2-23-6-11 so a good putting week is needed.
In Play
Third round leaders have a terrible record in recent times with every 3rd round leader beaten between 2006-2008 and then again last year. Edfors won from 4 back, Westwood won from 2 back and Fernandez-Castano came from 3 back between 2006-2008. Last year, Rasmus Hojgaard came from five back. Opposing the 3rd round leader is a solid strategy.
The last four course champions opened with under par first rounds.
In-play
Betfred British Masters In-Play Blog
14th May 2021, 8pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Pepperell | -10 |
| Hill | -9 |
| MacIntyre | -9 |
| Migliozzi | -9 |
| Meronk | -9 |
| Burmester | -9 |
| Molinari | -9 |
| Four players tied | -8 |
Eddie Pepperell, our 40/1 pre-event pick, holed a 30ft putt on the 18th hole to separate himself from the pack and take the lead into the final round of the Betfred British Masters.
Pepperell is now as short as 9/2 to convert and whilst we'd normally be delighted to be in this position, 3rd round leaders have a terrible record at this course in recent years. We mentioned in the Preview that the 3rd round leader has been beaten on each of the last four occasions this course has hosted a European Tour event.
Whilst the history books may suggest leaders don't do well here, Pepperell's record when holding a third round lead is encouraging. Both of his wins in 2018 came when leading or jointly leading with 18 holes to go. Post round, Pepperell described his swing as not being where he wants it to be and that's certainly a worry. However, he's hitting plenty of quality approach shots and there's no reason to think that won't continue tomorrow.
Co-favourite at the bookies is Robert MacIntyre. The Scot is seeking is second European Tour win and he's an obvious threat to our man. MacIntyre described his third round score as the "worst it could have been" and the rest of the field will be hoping his putter doesn't heat up. MacIntyre took his game to a new level when he performed superbly at the WGC Dell Matchplay and The Masters. He won't be afraid of anyone on this leaderboard.
Aside from Pepperell and MacIntyre, the leaderboard is packed with players who are proven winners on the European Tour. Dean Burmester, Justin Harding, Andy Sullivan, Edoardo Molinari and Guido Migliozzi are all multiple winners on Tour and all are within two shots of the lead. You could make cases for any of them for varying reasons and it's undoubtedly a tough one to call. If pushed, Migliozzi would be our pick from those players at the odds available (10/1).
The final round is set to be played in light rain with wind expected to reach a maximum of 8mph.
With our interest in Pepperell and our two in-play picks in contention, we only have one further bet.
Round 4 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Mikko Korhonen 50/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
Given the way Mikko Korhonen has been striking his irons this week, we think he's worth an each way play. Mikko ranks 3rd SG: Approach this week and is a player capable of winning from off the pace. His last win at the 2019 Volvo China Open came when overturning a three shot deficit and that is where he finds himself going into the final round. We've seen players win from quite a few shots back at this event and Mikko could well be the surprise package tomorrow.
13th May 2021, 8pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Bland | -7 |
| Hill | -7 |
| MacIntyre | -7 |
| Three Players Tied | -6 |
We have a three way tie at the top with round one leader Matthias Schwab only managing a 75. Calum Hill climbed one place into a share of the lead, being joined by pre-tournament favourite Robert MacIntyre and Richard Bland.
The market now has MacIntyre as short as 10/3 to convert and if he plays to his best he will win. However, we often see different versions of Robert throughout a tournament and he often chucks in a bad round. The price is too short for us at this stage with the calibre of players near the lead.
Hill appeared to be struggling a little today but his short game and putting were excellent. He will need to improve his long game if he is to win from here. Richard Bland is the model of consistency and is still bogey free. He tops the driving accuracy stats but it would be a big ask for him to win his first event since 2001.
The group at 6 under is where the danger lies for MacIntyre - in particular Eddie Pepperell and Justin Harding. We tipped up Eddie pre-event and he’s been frustrating to follow so far, but he’s been superb with his irons and has the class to win. If you’re not already on the former British Masters and Qatar Open champion, we wouldn’t put you off getting involved at 9/1.
The other big danger to MacIntyre appears to be Justin Harding and he is our only halfway selection.
Round 3 Bet
- 2pts Win Only Justin Harding 10/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power
Justin is one shot back but he should really be leading as he made a triple bogey on his 15th hole, the 6th. It was very uncharacteristic as otherwise he has been hitting fairways and greens for fun. We have seen many European Tour winners follow up with another lately, so won't be shocked if Harding draws on his recent winning experience in Kenya to secure another title. Finished 3rd at last year's Betfred British Masters so there are no doubts he can challenge here.
12th May 2021, 8.30pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Schwab | -6 |
| Hill | -5 |
| 10 Players Tied | -4 |
Matthias Schwab shot a best of the day 66 this morning which was closely followed by Calum Hill’s 67. None of the afternoon wave were able to match them and there is a now a chasing pack of 10 players two behind Schwab.
One of those is world number 60 Bernd Wiesberger and bookmaker’s rate him most likely to catch Schwab at 9/1. He will have the opportunity to set the clubhouse target as he tees off before the leaders.
It is still a very open event and even more so when you look at last years ISPS HANDA UK Championship leaderboard, which was also held at The Belfry. The eventual winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, opened with a 73 and was NINE shots behind the round one leader Justin Walters.
With that said, the rest of the top 5 had shot 68 or better in the opening round so we maybe just have to accept it took an exceptional talent such as Hojgaard to defy the odds that week.
The weather forecast doesn’t appear to signal any bias tomorrow so it is difficult to break down at this stage. We have identified one potential mover tomorrow.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Chris Wood 150/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Chris has had a miserable couple of years but he came to our attention in Austria with a 22nd place finish a few weeks ago. He improved his score every day that week and it wouldn't surprise us to see more improvement from him this week. He already has a win in England to his name at the 2016 BMW PGA Championship and a 2nd at the Portugal Masters in 2015 at a correlating course. The odds reflect that he is yet to prove he's anywhere near that level again but we're happy to chance him enjoying his home comforts this week.
