Preview
Course Info
Type of Course - Classical, Tree Lined
Course Designer - Robert Trent Jones
Greens - Small, fast, bentgrass
Fairways - Narrow, undulating
Par 5's - 4th, 12th, 17th and 18th
Hosted Since -2010
Premium on - Tee to green, accuracy and scrambling.
Weather Forecast
Mostly sunny with temperatures peaking in the mid 20's each afternoon. The wind should test players this week and scoring is likely to be higher.
Thur - Sunny. Wind 8-21mph.
Fri - Sunny. Wind 12-24mph.
Sat - Sunny intervals. Wind 8-16mph.
Sun - Sunny intervals. Wind 8-16mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Valderrama is located in the resort of Sotogrande, San Roque, in the Andalucia region of southern Spain a few miles from Gibraltar.
It hosted the Volvo Masters between 1988 and 1996 and again between 2002 and 2008. It also hosted the 1997 Ryder Cup when Europe were captained by the late Seve Ballesteros and Tiger Woods made his debut. More recently, it hosted the European Tour between 2016-2021.
Designed by Robert Trent Jones, this tree-lined course may look easy when looking at the yardage on the scorecard, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Only 14 players finished under par in 2019 and Christiaan Bezuidenhout was the only player who finished better than -4. No one shot under par all four days.
Trends
Winning score
Matt Fitzpatrick won with a score of -6 last year. We had over par winning scores in 2020 (+2) and 2016 (+1). Between 2017-2019 the winning score at Valderrama was between -10 and -12.The wind plays a big part in the final score here.
Course form
Course form does tend to hold weight at Valderrama. Players such as Sergio Garcia, Soren Kjeldsen and Mike Lorenzo Vera have posted consistently high finishes. Debutants can also win here, as Andrew Johnston and Jeev Mikha Singh have shown, but players with course experience are preferred. Five of the last eleven winners had a prior top 5 finish at Valderrama.
Incoming form
The last eleven winners have all had a top 10 finish in their six previous starts. Four had a top 10 in their previous start. Look for players at the top of the game for this tough test.
Winning Profile
John Catlin (2020), Bezuidenhout (2019) and Johnston (2016) won their maiden European Tour titles here but had shown form earlier in the year. Garcia was ranked in the top 30 of the world for his two most recent wins so we should be focusing on proven or up and coming players this week.
Stats Analysis
Summary
We will use Strokes Gained stats from the past three tournament winners, Matt Fitzpatrick, John Catlin and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
SG: Off The Tee
Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 25th and the two champions prior also ranked inside the top 30.
SG: Approach
Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 46th. The two previous champions also ranked between 30th and 50th so not the key stat this week.
SG: Around The Greens
The past three champions ranked 1st in this category. The key stat this week.
SG: Tee to green
The past three champions ranked inside the top 5 in this category.
SG: Putting
Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 41st in this category last year. Catlin ranked 16th whilst Bezuidenhout ranked 1st. Not essential but helps.
In Play
Tough Holes
The long par four 7th hole was the toughest hole last yar. In 2020, the 212 yard, par 3, 12th was the toughest.
Birdie Holes
The par 5 17th has played as the easiest hole the past two editions of this tournament.
Fast or Slow Start
Matt Fitzpatrick was 11th after round one last year. The 2020 winner, John Catlin, led after the opening round. Christiaan Bezuidenhout led all the way through in 2019 and Garcia did as well in 2017. Round one leaders have a great record here.
In-play
2022 Andalucia Masters In-Play Blog
15th October 2022, 6:20pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Otaegui |
-16 |
Hidalgo |
-10 |
Lagergren |
-10 |
M W Lee |
-9 |
MacIntyre |
-7 |
Smith |
-6 |
Round 3 Summary
Our 50/1 pre-event selection Adrian Otaegui fired a superb 64 which included birdies in his last three holes. No one was able to keep up with him and he now takes a six shot lead into the final round.
Round 4 Weather
Mostly cloudy with isolated evening showers. Wind 8-12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Otaegui is now 1/5 to close this event out and it's hard to see any other outcome. The Spaniard shot a 66 at the ISPS Handa Championship in April when he last led on tour and was only pipped by some magic from Pablo Larrazabal that day. For his win at the Scottish Championship in 2020, he closed out with a 63 and he is generally quite reliable.
Let's not forget though, Laurie Canter held a three shot lead here last year and ended up losing by four so things can change fast at Valderrama. We rate Otaegui much more than Canter in contention though and he should have enough.
Where is the value?
We fully expect Otaegui to close this out and there are no three-balls catching our eye.
Round 4 Bet
14th October 2022, 8:40pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Hidalgo |
-9 |
M W Lee |
-9 |
Otaegui |
-9 |
Lagergren |
-6 |
Garcia Rodriguez |
-5 |
MacIntyre |
-5 |
Four players tied |
-4 |
Round 2 Summary
Angel Hidalgo was one shot away from matching the course record in the morning and was joined at the top of the leaderboard by afternoon starters Adrian Otaegui and Min Woo Lee.
Round 3 Weather
Sunny with the wind expected to be 8-12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Min Woo Lee is 9/5 favourite and deservedly so. He ranks 2nd in SG: Tee to Green and was comfortable for much of the 2nd round.
Adrian Otaegui is 11/4 2nd favourite. The Spaniard rode his luck somewhat and made plenty of lengthy par saves in the 2nd round so he'll need to up his game over the weekend. Still, he's 14th in SG: Tee to Green over the opening two rounds so we shouldn't worry too much. We tipped him to subscribers at 50/1 at the start of the week and he's the man we're hoping can take the title.
Angel Hidalgo is one place above Adrian Otaegui in the SG: Tee to Green stats but the bookmakers have factored in his lack of contention experience on the DP World Tour and have him as a 15/2 shot. A winner on the Challenge Tour last year, he shouldn't be totally dismissed but it's also worth pointing out he's currently 130 in the Race to Dubai rankings and just outside the top 117 cut off to keep his card for next year. His attention may drift to securing a big finish just to keep his card.
Where is the value?
The last five winners of this tournament have been inside the top two at this stage. Min Woo Lee and Adrian Otaegui are certainly expected to contend come Sunday afternoon and hopefully Otaegui will prevail.
Round 3 Bets
Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez (50/1) made appeal solely based on price but like Angel Hidalgo, he's outside the top 117 in the Race to Dubai rankings and he too may feel the need to play cautiously over the weekend to ensure a high finish. We're content to cheer on Otaegui in round three and review again tomorrow.
13th October 2022, 9:00pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Angles |
-5 |
Kjeldsen |
-5 |
Janewattananond |
-5 |
Min Woo Lee |
-5 |
Horsey |
-5 |
MacIntyre |
-4 |
Otaegui |
-4 |
Round 1 Summary
30 players were able to break par with a five-way tie at the top. Valderrama got trickier as the day went on with the wind picking up and firming up the course. As a result, only one of the five leaders was from the afternoon group and three of the top 12. Heavy favourite Matt Fitzpatrick struggled off the tee and is eight shots back.
Round 2 Weather
Sunny with winds picking up in the afternoon - 10-20mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Min Woo Lee is 9/2 favourite but we're not so sure he should be with the weather forecast tomorrow. The course is going to play very difficult in the afternoon and it's not a price we would entertain.
Second favourite Robert MacIntyre looks a much more favourable proposition at 6/1 with a nice early start. The Scot ranked 2nd tee to green yesterday and top 6 for approach/greens in regulation. Expect the Italian Open champion to be up there come the weekend.
Next in the betting is Adrian Otaegui who we advised to subscribers at 50/1 pre-event. The Spaniard has the perfect skillset for this venue but will have his work cut out in the afternoon tomorrow.
Where is the value?
With conditions set to be tough for the afternoon wave, we are happy to back early starters who we can see making a move.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Pep Angles 50/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
The joint leader is being disrespected at 50/1 despite ranking 1st tee to green today. Angles best finishes on tour are sporadic but have all come in this part of the world - 2nd in Mallorca and Portugal, and a challenge tour win in Cadiz. He has made 4/6 cuts here so the course fits his eye and he can take advantage of the draw tomorrow and contend over the weekend.
- 1pt Each Way Thriston Lawrence 50/1 @ LivescoreBet (1/5 1-4)
The European Masters champion is worth backing here, having won at a course which shares a lot of similarities to Valderrama earlier this year. Lawrence relied on his short game somewhat today but he is capable of improving tee to green and could look a big price if he does so.