Preview

2024 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Tips

2024 Alfred Dunhill Links Event Info

Starts: 3rd October 2024
Course: Old Course, St Andrews, Scotland (Host Course)
Par: 72
Length: 7,318 yards
2023 Champion: Matt Fitzpatrick
Premium on - Links ability and ability to play in wind.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Links Weather Forecast

Thursday
Partly cloudy and very windy. Wind gusts to 30mph.

Friday
Mostly cloudy. Wind 10-15mph

Saturday
Mostly cloudy and very windy with a slight chance for showers in the afternoon. Wind gusts to 35mph.

Sun
Increasing cloudiness with a good chance for rain in the late afternoon and evening. Wind 8-12mph

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

There are a handful of LIV players entered into the field this week.

The first three days are rotated around three courses - St Andrews Old Course, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. The cut is made on Saturday evening with top 60 and ties progressing to Sunday. 

The tournament is played with amateurs, each professional forming a team with one amateur.  Rounds can therefore be slow and players must be patient.

Carnoustie usually plays harder than the other two, so beware of that if betting in-play. Kingsbarns is the most exposed to the wind.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Links Trends

Winning score
We have had winning scores of -15 to -24 in the last 8 years, with a winning score of -15. With the current weather forecast we should expect somewhere in the late teens.

Winning Profile
Matt Fitzpatrick and Ryan Fox had won earlier in the year and was having the season of his career. Danny Willett was world number 170 prior to his win last year.  Victor Perez was a big outsider in 2019, ranking 183rd before his win. Lucas Bjerregard ranked 92nd and had won the Portugal Masters the year prior. Tyrrell Hatton was 29th and 54th prior to his wins in 2017 and 2016 but they were the first of his career. Seven of the last ten winners had won on Tour before.

Course form
Matt Fitzpatrick and Ryan Fox had a very mediocre event record, with Fitzpatrick never finishign better than 15th in six attempts whilst Fox only bettering 50th once in five attempts. Danny Willett had 2nd and 5th place finishes at this event prior to winning. Victor Perez and Lucas Bjerregard had no previous big finishes at this event but Hatton won back to back and Thorbjorn Olesen had a previous 2nd place before his win in 2015. In general, links form is very important and certain players perform well consistently.

Course rotation
It's notable that none of the last ten winners started their week at Kingsbarns.  Six of the last ten winners started at Carnoustie and four started at St Andrews.

Incoming form
Fitzpatrick was in strong form with a run of 18-3-9-2. Fox arrived after a run of MC-WD-MC. Willett had missed three of his four cuts prior to his victory. Perez arrived on the back of two missed cuts in 2019. Bjerregard had hot form (20-2-6- in 2018, as did Hatton in 2017. However, Hatton was out of form for his win in 2016. We can conclude it is not necessary to come in hot but it helps.

Nationality
Two Danes and six Englishmen have won in the last nine years. Overall, British players perform well in home conditions.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Links Stats Analysis

Summary
Strokes Gained stats have been available for the past five tournaments. 

SG: Off The Tee
The past five champions ranked 7-75-1-35-48 (most recent first). Driving was the key stat in 2021 and 2019 (runner up, Matthew Southgate, was 6th in SG: Off The Tee) but hasn't been as important in other years.

SG: Approach
The past five champions ranked 51-11-3-10-16 (most recent first). Solid approach play generally leads to success but Ryan Fox proved you can win without a top class iron game.

SG: Around The Greens
The past five champions ranked 84-38-91-7-19 (most recent first). Not a key stat.

SG: Tee to Green
The past five champions ranked 14-11-1-1-8 (most recent first).  Unsurprisingly, a solid tee to green game is required this week.

SG: Putting
The past five champions ranked 12-19-95-21-4 (most recent first). As always, it helps to putt well but you can win without a red hot putter here.

Driving Distance Note - The 2022 leaderboard was littered with big hitters such as Fox, Shinkwin, McIlroy, Norgaard, Forrest and Mansell. 

2024 Alfred Dunhill Links In Play Advice

Fast or Slow Start
Due to the course rotation and changing weather conditions, catch up is very possible here. With that said, five of the last Seven winners have been in the top 12 after round one.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Tips